[ { "start": 0.24, "end": 0.48, "text": "Foreign." }, { "start": 7.76, "end": 11.28, "text": "Global Perspectives through a German Lens for the Maritime industry" }, { "start": 12.08, "end": 15.64, "text": "We bring the German perspective to the world and global insights to" }, { "start": 15.64, "end": 19.44, "text": "Germany. Maritime Matters is produced by the German" }, { "start": 19.44, "end": 22.8, "text": "Maritime Centre, the think tank for the German maritime sector." }, { "start": 25.44, "end": 28.8, "text": "Welcome to our podcast. My name is Matthias Catón." }, { "start": 29.23, "end": 32.83, "text": "I'm the Managing Director of the German Maritime Centre and your host." }, { "start": 35.15, "end": 38.59, "text": "Today we talk about decarbonisation" }, { "start": 38.91, "end": 42.43, "text": "in the maritime world, about green fuels, energy efficiency" }, { "start": 42.43, "end": 46.11, "text": "and other topics related to that. And my guest" }, { "start": 46.43, "end": 50.15, "text": "for this session is Jason Stefanatos. He is" }, { "start": 50.15, "end": 53.63, "text": "the Global Decarbonisation Director at DNV Maritime," }, { "start": 53.71, "end": 57.19, "text": "which is, as most of us will know, one of the world's leading" }, { "start": 57.19, "end": 60.97, "text": "classification societies and maritime advisors. He has" }, { "start": 60.97, "end": 64.73, "text": "spent the past 15 years there with DNV working in both Greece" }, { "start": 64.73, "end": 68.33, "text": "and Norway across research, advisory and business" }, { "start": 68.41, "end": 72.13, "text": "development roles. Jason is a naval architect by" }, { "start": 72.13, "end": 75.37, "text": "training and he holds a degree in Naval Architecture and" }, { "start": 75.45, "end": 79.21, "text": "Marine Engineering from the National Technical University of Athens." }, { "start": 79.77, "end": 83.49, "text": "In his current role, he works closely with ship owners around the world on some" }, { "start": 83.49, "end": 87.33, "text": "of the biggest issues and questions facing the industry today," }, { "start": 87.33, "end": 91.08, "text": "which is how to comply with new environmental regulations, how to" }, { "start": 91.08, "end": 94.64, "text": "adopt cleaner fuels, how to make ships more energy efficient, and how to manage" }, { "start": 94.64, "end": 98.36, "text": "emissions in a rapidly changing landscape. In short," }, { "start": 98.52, "end": 102.28, "text": "if you're a ship owner trying to figure out how to decarbonise your fleet," }, { "start": 102.28, "end": 104.68, "text": "Jason is one of the people you would call." }, { "start": 110.52, "end": 114.24, "text": "Welcome to the show, Jason. Thank you. Thank you very much for the nice" }, { "start": 114.24, "end": 117.97, "text": "introduction and very happy to be here. Jason, as I said," }, { "start": 117.97, "end": 121.57, "text": "you have spent the past 15 years at DNV in different roles in both" }, { "start": 121.57, "end": 125.37, "text": "Greece and Norway. Can you tell our listeners what your role" }, { "start": 125.37, "end": 128.73, "text": "involves day to day? What kind of decisions do you help" }, { "start": 128.89, "end": 132.57, "text": "ship owners take? Yeah, this is quite" }, { "start": 132.57, "end": 136.09, "text": "broad range. My role is to have the overview of" }, { "start": 136.09, "end": 139.77, "text": "decarbonisation activities for DNV and this" }, { "start": 139.77, "end": 143.53, "text": "entails many things. What I am doing is I" }, { "start": 144.03, "end": 147.31, "text": "talk to all the stakeholders of the industry, ship owners, shipyards," }, { "start": 147.39, "end": 151.23, "text": "vendors, cargo owners, trying to understand what they" }, { "start": 151.23, "end": 155.03, "text": "do, what they need. And I make sure that DNV" }, { "start": 155.03, "end": 158.79, "text": "direction is going that way and that we are acting in a way that we" }, { "start": 158.79, "end": 162.27, "text": "can help the industry go forward in the decarbonisation journey." }, { "start": 162.67, "end": 166.47, "text": "DNV is one of the largest classification societies in" }, { "start": 166.47, "end": 170.19, "text": "the world and you have a kind of a bird's eye view," }, { "start": 170.19, "end": 174.03, "text": "I would say, about what's going on in the shipping industry from" }, { "start": 174.03, "end": 177.21, "text": "that vantage point. What would you say? Where does shipping stand" }, { "start": 177.85, "end": 181.69, "text": "in 2026 when it comes to decarbonisation? I" }, { "start": 181.69, "end": 185.53, "text": "think it's safe to say that we're quite well," }, { "start": 185.69, "end": 189.49, "text": "we have done quite A lot of effort. You know, when it comes to" }, { "start": 189.49, "end": 193.17, "text": "decarbonisation, there are many ways to approach it" }, { "start": 193.17, "end": 196.73, "text": "and see what has been done. It's very easy to point fingers and" }, { "start": 196.73, "end": 200.33, "text": "throw the dark emissions above the funnel of a" }, { "start": 200.33, "end": 204.09, "text": "vessel. But the reality is that the industry has been taking steps for" }, { "start": 204.09, "end": 207.82, "text": "quite a few years, even decades. Up to a point, we" }, { "start": 207.82, "end": 211.02, "text": "have been improving the fleet. If you compare" }, { "start": 211.18, "end": 214.94, "text": "vessels of today with vessels of 10, 15, 20" }, { "start": 214.94, "end": 218.62, "text": "years ago, there is no comparison in how much fuel they consume or how" }, { "start": 218.62, "end": 222.46, "text": "much emissions they emit. There has been a very" }, { "start": 222.54, "end": 225.82, "text": "big adoption of alternative fuels" }, { "start": 225.98, "end": 229.58, "text": "spearheaded by lng and all the fuels have" }, { "start": 229.58, "end": 233.26, "text": "been tested, piloted, even built and operated" }, { "start": 234.14, "end": 237.94, "text": "and we have been doing quite a lot of work." }, { "start": 238.58, "end": 242.34, "text": "There is also a misconception by a few that" }, { "start": 242.42, "end": 245.94, "text": "decarbonisation will happen overnight or within two years," }, { "start": 246.02, "end": 249.62, "text": "which is not the case. Whoever has done any work around new" }, { "start": 249.62, "end": 253.3, "text": "technologies or new fuels especially we know" }, { "start": 253.3, "end": 256.5, "text": "that it will take some time and it will be a step" }, { "start": 256.82, "end": 260.58, "text": "wise approach that will need many stakeholders" }, { "start": 260.58, "end": 263.759, "text": "to work together. So currently" }, { "start": 264.399, "end": 267.359, "text": "most of the regulation is focusing on the ship owners" }, { "start": 268.159, "end": 271.679, "text": "and they are the ones that get the compliance pressure" }, { "start": 271.919, "end": 275.679, "text": "to do things. If we check the numbers, they have done what" }, { "start": 275.839, "end": 279.199, "text": "they need. If you check, for example, alternative fuels, by" }, { "start": 279.199, "end": 282.719, "text": "2030, the global fleet will be able to" }, { "start": 282.719, "end": 286.399, "text": "burn, will have the theoretical capacity of burning 50 million" }, { "start": 286.399, "end": 290.17, "text": "tons of equivalent fuel, which is quite" }, { "start": 290.17, "end": 293.69, "text": "high compared to the total amount of fuel we consume in the global" }, { "start": 293.69, "end": 297.45, "text": "fleet, which is 280 million tonnes. So the" }, { "start": 297.45, "end": 301.17, "text": "steps have been taken, the fleet is being prepared," }, { "start": 301.49, "end": 304.85, "text": "but we need to make sure that the other stakeholders are" }, { "start": 305.25, "end": 308.97, "text": "active as well. So fuel producers, cargo owners, they also need" }, { "start": 308.97, "end": 312.45, "text": "to do their part. When it comes to cargo owners, they are also very" }, { "start": 312.45, "end": 315.93, "text": "active. We have seen many cargo owners the past years and decades" }, { "start": 315.93, "end": 319.57, "text": "pushing for greener solutions for new fuels, for testing" }, { "start": 319.57, "end": 322.91, "text": "things. So coming back to responding to the question" }, { "start": 323.15, "end": 326.67, "text": "at hand, I think we are on a quite good track." }, { "start": 327.39, "end": 330.99, "text": "You rightly said it's not going to happen overnight, but I understand you correctly that" }, { "start": 330.99, "end": 334.63, "text": "you're seeing that there is still progress being made. Because some people would also" }, { "start": 334.63, "end": 338.23, "text": "argue that we've come to a standstill in a certain" }, { "start": 338.23, "end": 341.79, "text": "way. Or some people might even argue that we're moving backwards. But your" }, { "start": 341.95, "end": 345.63, "text": "feeling from DNV's point of view is that we're still" }, { "start": 345.71, "end": 349.56, "text": "even slowly moving into the right direction. Exactly. And it depends also" }, { "start": 349.72, "end": 353.48, "text": "the time period. When you analyse the deltas," }, { "start": 353.72, "end": 357.4, "text": "if you check the past three months, yes, there is something that could be" }, { "start": 357.4, "end": 361.16, "text": "interpreted as a slowdown. But if you see the big picture, if we take" }, { "start": 361.16, "end": 364.52, "text": "again the fuel orders, the path between" }, { "start": 364.68, "end": 368.52, "text": "April and October there were very few orders." }, { "start": 368.68, "end": 371.96, "text": "So many ship owners that were waiting for the signal from" }, { "start": 371.96, "end": 375.59, "text": "IMO and this signal did not come." }, { "start": 375.67, "end": 379.35, "text": "So there was no clarity delivered. That means that" }, { "start": 379.59, "end": 383.11, "text": "the ship owners that were going for conventional fuels" }, { "start": 383.43, "end": 387.11, "text": "still will go for conventional fuels. It does not mean that we had" }, { "start": 387.67, "end": 391.43, "text": "a decrease, but it was what it was before. We still have the same" }, { "start": 391.43, "end": 395.07, "text": "drivers. We still have the drivers that were there before the" }, { "start": 395.07, "end": 398.87, "text": "IMO meetings. And in that sense," }, { "start": 399.19, "end": 402.99, "text": "when we see the entire period and we have a time frame of" }, { "start": 402.99, "end": 406.81, "text": "30, 50, 60 years to decarbonise the industry, I" }, { "start": 406.81, "end": 410.65, "text": "think we are proceeding as planned with the ups and downs." }, { "start": 410.65, "end": 414.37, "text": "Of course, the wider geopolitical framework will" }, { "start": 414.45, "end": 418.13, "text": "also affect how shipping is moving. If we have" }, { "start": 418.13, "end": 421.01, "text": "other issues to solve, some issues may" }, { "start": 421.73, "end": 425.57, "text": "take a second priority. But the ambition and the drive is there." }, { "start": 425.65, "end": 429.45, "text": "And I think on the long term we are doing a good job as an" }, { "start": 429.45, "end": 433.17, "text": "industry. Let's talk about regulation for a moment, because" }, { "start": 433.17, "end": 436.65, "text": "you just mentioned it. There are different levels of" }, { "start": 436.65, "end": 440.43, "text": "regulation. There's regulation on the European level, for example, the" }, { "start": 440.43, "end": 443.91, "text": "requirement that ships calling at EU ports must gradually reduce" }, { "start": 443.91, "end": 447.39, "text": "greenhouse gas intensity of their fuels. And then of course there are global" }, { "start": 447.39, "end": 451.19, "text": "rules that are being developed or supposedly being developed, one should maybe" }, { "start": 451.19, "end": 454.27, "text": "say by the imo, the International Maritime Organization." }, { "start": 454.75, "end": 458.31, "text": "For those of our listeners who are not in the nitty gritty of" }, { "start": 458.31, "end": 461.87, "text": "those levels and regulations, could you give us a plain language" }, { "start": 461.87, "end": 465.55, "text": "overview of what kind of rule sets exist, what" }, { "start": 465.55, "end": 469.31, "text": "is coming? How does this regulatory landscape evolve globally?" }, { "start": 469.78, "end": 473.54, "text": "Yeah, well, I mean, there are many ways to approach it. If we take." }, { "start": 473.54, "end": 477.06, "text": "Let's start by the regulations in place that actually" }, { "start": 477.06, "end": 480.18, "text": "affect us. Already today we have two main" }, { "start": 480.42, "end": 484.22, "text": "bodies that enforce regulations on emissions. One" }, { "start": 484.22, "end": 488.02, "text": "is the IMO, the International Maritime Organization and the other is the EU." }, { "start": 488.98, "end": 492.3, "text": "The EU has been establishing the" }, { "start": 492.3, "end": 495.98, "text": "MRV, the monitoring, reporting and verification scheme back" }, { "start": 495.98, "end": 499.46, "text": "in 2017 to start understanding what is the size of the" }, { "start": 499.46, "end": 503.24, "text": "emissions from the fleet, but only focused on the European" }, { "start": 503.24, "end": 506.92, "text": "related operations. IMO followed one" }, { "start": 506.92, "end": 510.36, "text": "year later with a global scheme trying to monitor the" }, { "start": 510.36, "end": 513.76, "text": "entire global fleet. A few years later, EU" }, { "start": 514.08, "end": 517.8, "text": "took the next step, which is to add the monetary incentive." }, { "start": 517.8, "end": 521.48, "text": "On this it added the ets, the Emission Trading Scheme and" }, { "start": 521.48, "end": 525.2, "text": "the Fuel eu. These are two schemes that in" }, { "start": 525.2, "end": 528.97, "text": "a nutshell and in very layman's terms, based" }, { "start": 528.97, "end": 532.73, "text": "on how much emissions we monitor from the mrv, these are" }, { "start": 532.73, "end": 536.41, "text": "connected with some cost. In the case of ETS, it" }, { "start": 536.41, "end": 539.53, "text": "is based on the amount of CO2 that is being emitted." }, { "start": 540.01, "end": 543.37, "text": "So it is a cost for each ton of CO2 emitted" }, { "start": 543.69, "end": 547.09, "text": "while in fuel EU it has a different take. It" }, { "start": 547.09, "end": 550.93, "text": "focuses on the type of fuel that is being" }, { "start": 550.93, "end": 554.35, "text": "burned on board. So it's not directly" }, { "start": 554.59, "end": 558.31, "text": "counting the amount of emissions but mainly what type of" }, { "start": 558.31, "end": 561.87, "text": "fuel the vessels are burning. Both are connected with" }, { "start": 561.87, "end": 564.99, "text": "some cost in case you don't achieve compliance." }, { "start": 565.95, "end": 569.75, "text": "This was a reality and this still a reality. Something that has" }, { "start": 569.75, "end": 573.51, "text": "been rolled out two years ago and last year, ETS and fuel EU" }, { "start": 573.51, "end": 576.27, "text": "respectively and has been pushing the industry." }, { "start": 576.99, "end": 580.84, "text": "We can say that both schemes, the cost" }, { "start": 580.92, "end": 584.2, "text": "level is at such a point that is not" }, { "start": 584.76, "end": 588.6, "text": "really pushing the investments today. It is" }, { "start": 589.32, "end": 593.12, "text": "an extra effort and an extra burden that the ship owners need to handle and" }, { "start": 593.12, "end": 596.88, "text": "the cargo owners. But the level of the exposure" }, { "start": 596.88, "end": 600.72, "text": "of the cost is at such stage that it can be passed along the value" }, { "start": 600.72, "end": 604.52, "text": "chain. The concept of these schemes is that as we go" }, { "start": 604.52, "end": 608.37, "text": "forward there will be more and more increase on the compliance and" }, { "start": 608.37, "end": 612.13, "text": "that will increase the cost. So it will push the ship owners and" }, { "start": 612.13, "end": 615.89, "text": "cargo owners towards more new technologies and greener solutions." }, { "start": 616.61, "end": 619.89, "text": "Now on the other side we have a similar step that the" }, { "start": 619.89, "end": 622.93, "text": "IMO is planning to take. This took the" }, { "start": 623.41, "end": 626.85, "text": "form of the so called Net Zero Framework. It was a" }, { "start": 626.85, "end": 629.89, "text": "framework to have global application brought" }, { "start": 630.29, "end": 633.84, "text": "mainly on the table last April 2025 from" }, { "start": 633.84, "end": 637.16, "text": "IMO. It was put on the table to be" }, { "start": 637.24, "end": 640.76, "text": "approved and finalised in last October. Last" }, { "start": 640.76, "end": 644.6, "text": "October there was something that most of the industry was not" }, { "start": 644.76, "end": 648.44, "text": "expecting, that this decision was not taken to" }, { "start": 648.76, "end": 652.44, "text": "finalize and approve it and the decision was delayed for one" }, { "start": 652.44, "end": 656.0, "text": "year. So now we're at the stage that" }, { "start": 656.0, "end": 659.64, "text": "there are many stakeholders in the industry with different" }, { "start": 659.64, "end": 663.26, "text": "opinions. There are two main, let's say camps" }, { "start": 663.26, "end": 666.98, "text": "or opinions, people that want to see the Nigeria framework" }, { "start": 666.98, "end": 670.78, "text": "going forward and think that this will have an impact on reducing" }, { "start": 670.78, "end": 674.54, "text": "the emissions and there are other stakeholders that are against it" }, { "start": 674.54, "end": 678.26, "text": "and try to find alternatives. It's very hard to predict" }, { "start": 678.42, "end": 682.26, "text": "what will happen from the DNV side. What we can do and being" }, { "start": 682.26, "end": 686.02, "text": "unbiased, the technical advisors of the industry is that we need to" }, { "start": 686.02, "end": 689.66, "text": "analyse the facts and see what needs to be done and what can be" }, { "start": 689.66, "end": 693.14, "text": "done and make sure that we have a global framework that" }, { "start": 693.74, "end": 697.46, "text": "first of all has consensus of the industry. This is a prerequisite. Even if" }, { "start": 697.46, "end": 701.18, "text": "you have a marginal approval of one framework, it" }, { "start": 701.18, "end": 704.78, "text": "may create issues in the future. So we need to make sure that we" }, { "start": 704.78, "end": 707.74, "text": "have one global framework that captures the industry." }, { "start": 708.46, "end": 712.02, "text": "And also coming back to the ETS and the fuel eu," }, { "start": 712.02, "end": 715.34, "text": "now we've seen a lot of ship owners with high exposure in the EU" }, { "start": 715.82, "end": 719.66, "text": "considering their decarbonisation plans for the most economically" }, { "start": 719.66, "end": 723.34, "text": "effective compliance. Today we see mainly going" }, { "start": 723.66, "end": 727.32, "text": "from energy efficiency and to reduce consumption, affecting the ETS" }, { "start": 727.64, "end": 731.24, "text": "and biofuels for pooling. So my point is that" }, { "start": 731.4, "end": 735.24, "text": "we still have eu, ETS and fuel, EU and" }, { "start": 735.72, "end": 739.56, "text": "owners need to comply. And still the people that had plans, they" }, { "start": 739.56, "end": 743.28, "text": "continue to follow them for these two schemes. Yeah, I mean, you" }, { "start": 743.28, "end": 746.68, "text": "gave a very diplomatic answer when it comes to what happened at the" }, { "start": 746.68, "end": 750.24, "text": "imo. I think what is fair to say is that of course there was pushback" }, { "start": 750.24, "end": 753.55, "text": "from the US administration, helped by a few other" }, { "start": 753.63, "end": 757.43, "text": "mainly carbon fuel producing countries who" }, { "start": 757.43, "end": 761.11, "text": "for obvious reasons, I guess, had not a big incentive to move" }, { "start": 761.11, "end": 764.95, "text": "forward. Now officially it's been postponed, so I think this fall the topic" }, { "start": 764.95, "end": 768.47, "text": "will be discussed again. Now the question is of course will the political" }, { "start": 768.47, "end": 772.15, "text": "landscape have changed? And I personally don't see it. So the question is how" }, { "start": 772.15, "end": 775.87, "text": "likely is it that the net zero framework will pass in the fall?" }, { "start": 776.19, "end": 780.03, "text": "You mentioned that of course the EU system is still in place." }, { "start": 780.35, "end": 783.63, "text": "Other countries are also, I believe, working on their own trade emission." }, { "start": 784.57, "end": 787.93, "text": "Is there a risk that we will have global fragmentation" }, { "start": 788.09, "end": 791.86, "text": "where instead of one global set of rules, we'll have 5, 10," }, { "start": 791.946, "end": 795.45, "text": "15, whatever, which will obviously make things extremely" }, { "start": 795.45, "end": 799.25, "text": "bureaucratic for ship owners who by definition most of them" }, { "start": 799.25, "end": 802.97, "text": "at least move across the globe and may have to comply not with one" }, { "start": 802.97, "end": 806.81, "text": "trading system, but with maybe half a dozen or so? Exactly." }, { "start": 806.81, "end": 810.17, "text": "This is what we also see as the main risk of not achieving" }, { "start": 810.17, "end": 813.45, "text": "consensus at IMO level for the global framework." }, { "start": 813.85, "end": 817.35, "text": "We expect that there will be indeed fragmentation." }, { "start": 817.43, "end": 821.15, "text": "We know that many regions and countries have expressed interest in the" }, { "start": 821.15, "end": 824.79, "text": "past years to have some local scheme. The challenges" }, { "start": 824.79, "end": 828.15, "text": "here are multifold. Exactly as you said that it will add" }, { "start": 828.23, "end": 831.949, "text": "complexity, it will add more schemes that" }, { "start": 831.949, "end": 835.03, "text": "will not be unified. So for international" }, { "start": 835.35, "end": 839.19, "text": "trading companies and vessels, it will be an extra" }, { "start": 839.19, "end": 842.87, "text": "burden to keep all the various compliance requirements" }, { "start": 843.11, "end": 846.75, "text": "at hand. But also we see a bigger" }, { "start": 846.83, "end": 850.59, "text": "threat that if we have regional schemes," }, { "start": 851.55, "end": 854.99, "text": "the impact of these schemes may be" }, { "start": 855.23, "end": 858.91, "text": "less. One is because you will not" }, { "start": 858.91, "end": 862.63, "text": "have the global trade. There is a counter argument there that if you" }, { "start": 862.63, "end": 866.43, "text": "have a few regions that are dominant when it comes to marine traffic," }, { "start": 866.59, "end": 869.87, "text": "then you still can have impact. So let's say that you have Australia," }, { "start": 870.19, "end": 873.61, "text": "China and Canada and Brazil having schemes" }, { "start": 873.77, "end": 877.29, "text": "adding on top of the eu, then you have schemes," }, { "start": 877.61, "end": 880.73, "text": "you will have schemes in most of the traffic, so" }, { "start": 880.97, "end": 884.69, "text": "potentially it could have an impact. But the other risk is" }, { "start": 884.69, "end": 888.17, "text": "that there is some expectation" }, { "start": 888.57, "end": 892.13, "text": "that some of these schemes will be just money collecting" }, { "start": 892.13, "end": 895.89, "text": "schemes, the regional ones. So the cost that will be paid" }, { "start": 895.89, "end": 899.45, "text": "by the ship owners towards those schemes will just be siphoned" }, { "start": 900.08, "end": 903.84, "text": "to other usages by the regions" }, { "start": 903.84, "end": 907.04, "text": "owning the schemes. This is why I also" }, { "start": 907.28, "end": 910.48, "text": "stress that when we talk about the global framework," }, { "start": 910.96, "end": 914.64, "text": "it creates a global playing field for all" }, { "start": 914.72, "end": 918.32, "text": "to understand. We need to be easy to understand and" }, { "start": 918.32, "end": 921.92, "text": "how to comply, but it also needs to be rewarding" }, { "start": 921.92, "end": 925.69, "text": "and make sure that all the funds that are being raised or" }, { "start": 925.69, "end": 929.41, "text": "under whatever scheme we end up having are going back to" }, { "start": 929.41, "end": 933.05, "text": "shipping. We need to make sure that we use" }, { "start": 933.05, "end": 936.85, "text": "this effort to improve the fleet, to reduce emissions" }, { "start": 936.85, "end": 940.01, "text": "and make sure that we achieve our targets to" }, { "start": 940.17, "end": 943.73, "text": "practically decarbonise shipping or reduce emissions" }, { "start": 943.73, "end": 947.13, "text": "in shipping. We're both from EU countries, we are both" }, { "start": 947.13, "end": 950.85, "text": "Europeans. And often it is said that while Europe is" }, { "start": 950.85, "end": 954.25, "text": "weak militarily, for example, we have this regulatory" }, { "start": 954.49, "end": 957.99, "text": "superpower because, you know, we have strong regulations, many areas," }, { "start": 958.31, "end": 962.07, "text": "and often what happens, because also the EU internal market is so big," }, { "start": 962.31, "end": 966.11, "text": "other countries fall in line and they follow the regulatory model or the" }, { "start": 966.11, "end": 969.67, "text": "regulatory framework of the eu. Is that also something that" }, { "start": 969.67, "end": 972.79, "text": "you see possible in this field or is this" }, { "start": 972.79, "end": 976.23, "text": "fragmentation of different systems actually unavoidable?" }, { "start": 976.87, "end": 980.55, "text": "Yeah, that is a very good question. I have to make a disclaimer." }, { "start": 980.55, "end": 984.23, "text": "My master was on marine engineering, not political sciences, so I will" }, { "start": 984.23, "end": 987.91, "text": "do my best to give a response. Indeed," }, { "start": 987.99, "end": 990.93, "text": "at least if we focus on decarbonisation and the emissions" }, { "start": 991.09, "end": 994.73, "text": "regulations. Indeed, EU has been quite active and" }, { "start": 994.73, "end": 998.29, "text": "takes the first step. But I have to say that it's" }, { "start": 998.61, "end": 1002.17, "text": "not only eu. I mean, at IMO level, we have been working with" }, { "start": 1002.17, "end": 1005.89, "text": "emissions regulations the past 20 years or even more, right? I mean, 20" }, { "start": 1005.89, "end": 1008.77, "text": "years is the peak season, the high" }, { "start": 1009.09, "end": 1012.89, "text": "activity, when we also have regulations rolling out. I" }, { "start": 1012.89, "end": 1016.42, "text": "think since the problem is there and we have" }, { "start": 1016.42, "end": 1020.06, "text": "identified it, we need to make sure that we take all the steps." }, { "start": 1020.38, "end": 1024.06, "text": "And there may be a debate of what measure is actually" }, { "start": 1024.22, "end": 1027.86, "text": "impactful or not, but at the end we need to" }, { "start": 1027.86, "end": 1031.58, "text": "take steps and at the same time we need to be pragmatic so we cannot" }, { "start": 1031.58, "end": 1035.02, "text": "disrupt the industry to fix one thing and produce" }, { "start": 1035.18, "end": 1038.7, "text": "other problems. But I feel from my role," }, { "start": 1038.7, "end": 1042.42, "text": "I go around the globe talking to many stakeholders. I think it's" }, { "start": 1042.42, "end": 1046.0, "text": "safe to say that it's not only the Euro that is quite active" }, { "start": 1046.0, "end": 1049.72, "text": "and wants to be active and regulatory. Also, if we go" }, { "start": 1050.04, "end": 1053.72, "text": "towards the east and the Far east, we also see a very" }, { "start": 1053.72, "end": 1056.68, "text": "big drive towards similar schemes." }, { "start": 1059.32, "end": 1060.6, "text": "Nautical numbers," }, { "start": 1063.8, "end": 1067.6, "text": "it's one of our fixed segments in this podcast and we" }, { "start": 1067.6, "end": 1071.44, "text": "always ask our guests to bring one number that belongs or pertains to" }, { "start": 1071.44, "end": 1075.26, "text": "this session's topic. So, Jason, what is your nautical number? I mean," }, { "start": 1075.26, "end": 1078.74, "text": "I'm among two numbers. I Can start with one. And if you allow me, I" }, { "start": 1078.74, "end": 1082.42, "text": "can maybe use the second one. Sure. We'll give you a bonus" }, { "start": 1082.42, "end": 1086.1, "text": "number. Second number. Thank you. I would say the one number" }, { "start": 1086.1, "end": 1089.62, "text": "that comes in mind is 90. And this 90 is 90%," }, { "start": 1090.499, "end": 1093.94, "text": "which is. Or if you want to read the 10%. 10%" }, { "start": 1094.02, "end": 1097.86, "text": "is the percentage of the existing fleet" }, { "start": 1097.86, "end": 1101.63, "text": "that is able to burn alternative fuels. So 10%," }, { "start": 1102.27, "end": 1105.99, "text": "depending on how you see the glass, half empty or half full, you" }, { "start": 1105.99, "end": 1109.79, "text": "can say that 10% is a very big number of vessels to" }, { "start": 1109.79, "end": 1113.63, "text": "burn alternative fuels today, considering when we started" }, { "start": 1113.63, "end": 1117.35, "text": "this effort. But also in the same sentence, you" }, { "start": 1117.35, "end": 1121.15, "text": "can say it's still 90% that burns conventional fuel." }, { "start": 1121.55, "end": 1125.07, "text": "So this is the. I consider that one number that" }, { "start": 1125.55, "end": 1129.35, "text": "is important to show that we have started. We are" }, { "start": 1129.35, "end": 1133.11, "text": "doing very good job, as we said in the beginning, but we still have a" }, { "start": 1133.11, "end": 1136.59, "text": "very long way to go. And this is something we need to keep in mind" }, { "start": 1137.07, "end": 1140.79, "text": "across the entire range of discussion, either being a technical" }, { "start": 1140.79, "end": 1144.63, "text": "or a regulatory or a future discussion of where" }, { "start": 1144.63, "end": 1148.11, "text": "we stand. Very good point. Of course, I understand that this number" }, { "start": 1148.27, "end": 1151.91, "text": "refers to the entire fleet. So there are some new ships, but there are" }, { "start": 1151.91, "end": 1155.43, "text": "also some very old ships. I believe seagoing vessels have an" }, { "start": 1155.43, "end": 1158.91, "text": "average lifespan of about 30 years. Some of the internal" }, { "start": 1158.91, "end": 1162.53, "text": "waterways ships are considerably older. We know that here in Germany we" }, { "start": 1162.53, "end": 1165.97, "text": "have ships that go up and down the rhine that are 70 years old or" }, { "start": 1165.97, "end": 1169.81, "text": "even older. So that is, of course, a number that is being influenced by" }, { "start": 1169.81, "end": 1173.61, "text": "a significant proportion of older ships. Now, if we look at the order book, and" }, { "start": 1173.61, "end": 1177.29, "text": "you have a very good overview of what's happening there, as well as" }, { "start": 1177.29, "end": 1180.89, "text": "a classification society, I believe, and I think this data is" }, { "start": 1180.89, "end": 1184.53, "text": "also from DNV, is that around 40% of newly" }, { "start": 1184.53, "end": 1188.37, "text": "built ships are now able to run on alternative fuels. And" }, { "start": 1188.37, "end": 1191.79, "text": "I think LNG is still at the top there, but" }, { "start": 1191.79, "end": 1195.59, "text": "methanol also is following. Give us an overview when we" }, { "start": 1195.59, "end": 1199.19, "text": "talk about alternative fuels. What types of technologies are there and" }, { "start": 1199.19, "end": 1202.71, "text": "how dominant or how much used are they actually" }, { "start": 1202.87, "end": 1206.39, "text": "today in chips that are either already operating or" }, { "start": 1206.39, "end": 1210.23, "text": "being built right now, I think the number is exactly as you said. It's" }, { "start": 1210.23, "end": 1213.99, "text": "40, 42%. A few months ago it" }, { "start": 1213.99, "end": 1217.19, "text": "used to be a bit higher. This has dropped" }, { "start": 1217.59, "end": 1221.31, "text": "for many reasons. But the two main ones is that as" }, { "start": 1221.31, "end": 1224.93, "text": "I said earlier, we had a large AM amount of vessels that" }, { "start": 1225.09, "end": 1228.49, "text": "the owners were waiting to order until they see some clarity from" }, { "start": 1228.49, "end": 1232.25, "text": "IMO, and then they all got ordered within" }, { "start": 1232.25, "end": 1235.69, "text": "the last two months of 2025 and the first month of" }, { "start": 1235.69, "end": 1239.369, "text": "2026. But also it's connected that when you see" }, { "start": 1239.369, "end": 1242.77, "text": "this number, it's not uniform. We don't see 40% across all" }, { "start": 1242.93, "end": 1246.77, "text": "ship types and ship segments. You see container ships," }, { "start": 1247.09, "end": 1250.73, "text": "car carriers and crews, they are leading. They have more" }, { "start": 1250.73, "end": 1254.47, "text": "than 70, 80% uptake when it comes" }, { "start": 1254.47, "end": 1257.99, "text": "based on GT. When we go to bulkers and tankers" }, { "start": 1258.15, "end": 1261.83, "text": "we see significantly less uptake. And this" }, { "start": 1261.83, "end": 1265.35, "text": "makes sense. You know, we don't expect all the vessels to start using" }, { "start": 1265.43, "end": 1269.15, "text": "new fuels. It has to do with trade being" }, { "start": 1269.15, "end": 1272.79, "text": "liner or spot. It has to do with the size, the" }, { "start": 1272.87, "end": 1276.63, "text": "cargo they transport. Container ships and car carriers for example," }, { "start": 1276.79, "end": 1280.5, "text": "the cargo they carry is much closer to the end user. So if the" }, { "start": 1280.5, "end": 1284.26, "text": "end user is willing to pay for some net zero transport, the" }, { "start": 1284.26, "end": 1287.66, "text": "cargo owner can pass this cost along the value chain." }, { "start": 1288.38, "end": 1292.22, "text": "So my first point is that we see a lot of uptake" }, { "start": 1292.46, "end": 1296.059, "text": "but it is not uniform across the industry." }, { "start": 1296.46, "end": 1299.98, "text": "So we understand the uptake per" }, { "start": 1299.98, "end": 1303.42, "text": "fuel. LNG is the most mature among" }, { "start": 1303.66, "end": 1307.51, "text": "all the fuels. I mean the main fuels that we discuss is lng," }, { "start": 1307.67, "end": 1311.35, "text": "methanol, ethanol, ammonia and" }, { "start": 1311.35, "end": 1315.19, "text": "hydrogen. So LNG is by far the most mature technology." }, { "start": 1315.35, "end": 1319.03, "text": "We have LNG carriers burning LNG for decades." }, { "start": 1319.03, "end": 1322.87, "text": "We have non LNG carriers burning LNG for years." }, { "start": 1323.27, "end": 1326.31, "text": "We have more than 1300 non" }, { "start": 1326.63, "end": 1330.39, "text": "LNG carrier vessels that are able or will" }, { "start": 1330.39, "end": 1333.76, "text": "be able to burn LNG. And we also have good infrastructure." }, { "start": 1334.87, "end": 1338.59, "text": "There is high cost. So you need to justify why you go to" }, { "start": 1338.59, "end": 1342.23, "text": "lng. You need to have someone to pay for that cost. But" }, { "start": 1342.23, "end": 1345.95, "text": "beyond that, it is a solution that is being adopted. There" }, { "start": 1345.95, "end": 1349.79, "text": "is also the challenge that LNG is fossil. So when we talk about" }, { "start": 1349.79, "end": 1353.27, "text": "the LNG pathway, we need to make sure that we also open the" }, { "start": 1353.27, "end": 1356.99, "text": "green LNG option in the future. Now when it comes" }, { "start": 1356.99, "end": 1360.79, "text": "to methanol, first of all, let me start by saying that methanol" }, { "start": 1360.79, "end": 1364.2, "text": "is not a new. The first methanol fueled" }, { "start": 1364.28, "end": 1368.12, "text": "tanker was delivered in 2016, DNV GL class" }, { "start": 1368.2, "end": 1372.0, "text": "back then. So we have experience. There were 30 tankers built" }, { "start": 1372.0, "end": 1375.72, "text": "and operated since then. But then it lost some interest. It won" }, { "start": 1375.72, "end": 1379.56, "text": "it again when some big container ship operators and players went" }, { "start": 1379.56, "end": 1383.2, "text": "for methanol. Then it lost a bit again. Now it's up again." }, { "start": 1383.2, "end": 1387.04, "text": "We had bulkheaders going for methanol. I think methanol is on a" }, { "start": 1387.04, "end": 1390.88, "text": "track to become more and more mature. There are many pros" }, { "start": 1390.88, "end": 1394.24, "text": "with methanol that it is not much but it is lower" }, { "start": 1394.24, "end": 1397.96, "text": "capex and easier operations, less challenges on" }, { "start": 1397.96, "end": 1401.64, "text": "board. The barriers we see with methanol is" }, { "start": 1401.64, "end": 1405.399, "text": "infrastructure availability and energy cost, especially for the" }, { "start": 1405.399, "end": 1408.84, "text": "green version of the fuel. So this is" }, { "start": 1409.08, "end": 1412.76, "text": "what we see with methanol. Being the main barriers when it comes to ammonia." }, { "start": 1412.84, "end": 1416.64, "text": "This is at a much earlier stage of development. Now this year we" }, { "start": 1416.64, "end": 1420.04, "text": "expect the first engines to be delivered on actual vessels and run on" }, { "start": 1420.04, "end": 1423.46, "text": "ammonia. We are still at what I call the" }, { "start": 1423.62, "end": 1426.98, "text": "knowledge collecting period. So it's not that we expect" }, { "start": 1427.14, "end": 1430.9, "text": "ammonia to scale up next year just" }, { "start": 1430.9, "end": 1434.42, "text": "because we will have the first engines. We are still working on" }, { "start": 1434.98, "end": 1438.34, "text": "identifying all the challenges. We have worked with" }, { "start": 1439.38, "end": 1442.9, "text": "Fortescue and Singapore Flag to make the first" }, { "start": 1442.9, "end": 1446.46, "text": "ammonia fueled vessel. It was a retrofit of an offshore supply" }, { "start": 1446.46, "end": 1450.25, "text": "vessel. We got first hand on what does it mean to have an" }, { "start": 1450.25, "end": 1454.01, "text": "ammonia fueled vessel. And we understand the risks, we understand the" }, { "start": 1454.01, "end": 1457.73, "text": "challenges and that we have some more way to go until we reach" }, { "start": 1457.97, "end": 1461.73, "text": "high uptake again here, apart from the technical" }, { "start": 1462.13, "end": 1465.81, "text": "challenges that will be solved one way or the other, we have" }, { "start": 1466.13, "end": 1469.97, "text": "the main barriers being high capex. But again, infrastructure" }, { "start": 1469.97, "end": 1473.73, "text": "and energy costs like with methanol. An interesting element here" }, { "start": 1473.73, "end": 1477.4, "text": "is that when we talk about availability of fuels in the future, we need to" }, { "start": 1477.4, "end": 1481.24, "text": "take one step back and see the big picture. It's not only shipping" }, { "start": 1481.24, "end": 1484.92, "text": "that is decarbonizing or aiming for reduced emissions for net" }, { "start": 1484.92, "end": 1488.36, "text": "zero. All the industries have similar ambitions and" }, { "start": 1488.36, "end": 1491.88, "text": "targets, maybe with different speeds, with different requirements," }, { "start": 1491.88, "end": 1495.64, "text": "but all are going there. So we also need to see" }, { "start": 1495.64, "end": 1498.88, "text": "the big picture of what fuels are going to be available for the land industry" }, { "start": 1499.12, "end": 1502.91, "text": "that can also be used for shipping. And ammonia is among these," }, { "start": 1503.39, "end": 1506.59, "text": "as with hydrogen. So hydrogen is" }, { "start": 1506.99, "end": 1510.35, "text": "a clean solution. Can be a clean solution." }, { "start": 1510.67, "end": 1514.51, "text": "There are many countries that have targets to go to hydrogen" }, { "start": 1514.51, "end": 1518.35, "text": "based economies. China is one of these countries and it is such" }, { "start": 1518.35, "end": 1522.19, "text": "a big economy that can impact other regions" }, { "start": 1522.19, "end": 1525.63, "text": "and shipping as well. When it comes to the uptake of" }, { "start": 1525.63, "end": 1529.23, "text": "hydrogen in shipping, technically it is quite low." }, { "start": 1529.55, "end": 1533.39, "text": "We don't expect hydrogen to be used as main fuel" }, { "start": 1533.39, "end": 1537.07, "text": "for ocean going vessels, at least anytime soon. But" }, { "start": 1537.07, "end": 1540.51, "text": "we see many applications in smaller vessels, in ferries, in" }, { "start": 1540.75, "end": 1544.27, "text": "other vessels that have smaller requirements in terms of range" }, { "start": 1544.67, "end": 1548.39, "text": "and also as auxiliary power in fuel cells, even" }, { "start": 1548.39, "end": 1552.15, "text": "in cruise ships. So it seems to me that it's a bit" }, { "start": 1552.15, "end": 1554.91, "text": "like the fashion, right? Colors change and also the" }, { "start": 1555.39, "end": 1558.9, "text": "popularity of alternative fuels changes quite rapidly. And I've" }, { "start": 1559.13, "end": 1561.81, "text": "been in the sector actually for about a year and a half since I joined" }, { "start": 1561.81, "end": 1565.37, "text": "the German Maritime Center. And even there, as you said, you know, methanol was very" }, { "start": 1565.37, "end": 1568.57, "text": "popular at the time. It has now fallen out of fashion a little bit." }, { "start": 1568.97, "end": 1572.53, "text": "Ammonia, as you said, some people really seem to love it. Others say it's" }, { "start": 1572.53, "end": 1575.97, "text": "absolutely no possibility, Mainly because of security or safety" }, { "start": 1575.97, "end": 1579.61, "text": "concerns. I've even heard people now Starting to push" }, { "start": 1579.61, "end": 1582.81, "text": "nuclear propulsion for civilian purposes, which I think for many" }, { "start": 1583.13, "end": 1586.89, "text": "reasons is even further down the line and even more controversial than" }, { "start": 1586.89, "end": 1590.73, "text": "ammonia. Does that create part of this chicken and egg problem? You" }, { "start": 1590.87, "end": 1593.79, "text": "I mentioned earlier that of course it's not just ship owners who need to play" }, { "start": 1593.79, "end": 1597.39, "text": "a role, also pot operators, for example, who have to provide the" }, { "start": 1597.39, "end": 1600.63, "text": "infrastructure. But they're also, I guess, waiting to see which" }, { "start": 1601.11, "end": 1604.51, "text": "type of fuel takes the lead before they invest in costly" }, { "start": 1604.51, "end": 1608.15, "text": "infrastructure. And it may also not be possible to have five different fuel" }, { "start": 1608.15, "end": 1611.67, "text": "types at every significant port. I suppose. Yeah," }, { "start": 1611.75, "end": 1615.55, "text": "we also see this race. I like to also frame it" }, { "start": 1615.55, "end": 1619.32, "text": "in a different way. It's not a race among the fuels. We" }, { "start": 1619.32, "end": 1623.04, "text": "are such early in this journey that we need to have all the pathways" }, { "start": 1623.04, "end": 1626.24, "text": "open. It's very early to just shut down" }, { "start": 1626.56, "end": 1630.36, "text": "solutions today. And this is why I see all the" }, { "start": 1630.36, "end": 1634.08, "text": "fuels not competing to each other, but working in parallel" }, { "start": 1634.08, "end": 1637.44, "text": "to make sure that we have all the options, or at least more options" }, { "start": 1637.76, "end": 1641.36, "text": "in our future, which is going to be challenging in that sense." }, { "start": 1641.76, "end": 1645.39, "text": "I don't think the majority of the industry, things like that," }, { "start": 1645.55, "end": 1649.31, "text": "you have of course stakeholders that have interest in one" }, { "start": 1649.31, "end": 1652.99, "text": "versus the other fuel. So of course they will push against or" }, { "start": 1652.99, "end": 1656.83, "text": "in favor of one fuel or the other or against the other. But from our" }, { "start": 1656.83, "end": 1660.55, "text": "role, we need to stick to the facts. We need to" }, { "start": 1660.55, "end": 1664.11, "text": "analyse the pros and cons, the challenges and the benefits of each" }, { "start": 1664.11, "end": 1667.31, "text": "fuel and make sure that we try to tackle the challenges and" }, { "start": 1667.87, "end": 1671.34, "text": "gain from the benefits. This is the only way forward." }, { "start": 1671.9, "end": 1675.5, "text": "But having said that, it's still the energy game." }, { "start": 1675.66, "end": 1679.42, "text": "It's not something that we will decide based on pure" }, { "start": 1679.42, "end": 1683.06, "text": "technical considerations. We need again to see the" }, { "start": 1683.06, "end": 1686.3, "text": "bigger geopolitical frame. We need to see how the energy" }, { "start": 1686.54, "end": 1690.1, "text": "balance is on all the industries. Let's not forget" }, { "start": 1690.1, "end": 1693.42, "text": "that industries. The shipping industry has" }, { "start": 1693.42, "end": 1696.78, "text": "3% of the global energy mix. So it is not" }, { "start": 1697.24, "end": 1699.88, "text": "a consumer of energy that can" }, { "start": 1701.16, "end": 1704.76, "text": "shift the way we go for the global energy production." }, { "start": 1705.0, "end": 1708.72, "text": "Definitely we can shift the direction when it comes" }, { "start": 1708.72, "end": 1712.12, "text": "to marine fuels. We can have direction that we also" }, { "start": 1712.44, "end": 1716.2, "text": "impact. But it is up to the energy producers and" }, { "start": 1716.44, "end": 1720.12, "text": "distributors mainly. Yeah, and I think one issue is also" }, { "start": 1720.12, "end": 1723.84, "text": "that depending on the type of fuel and the overall demand globally," }, { "start": 1723.84, "end": 1727.59, "text": "is that that the marine sector may be priced out of some of the fuel" }, { "start": 1727.59, "end": 1731.43, "text": "types, especially if there are other industries, aviation and others who may be able" }, { "start": 1731.43, "end": 1735.19, "text": "or willing to pay more for a specific type of alternative fuel." }, { "start": 1735.59, "end": 1739.03, "text": "Exactly. Biofuels is a very good example. I mean, now I" }, { "start": 1739.03, "end": 1742.71, "text": "mentioned earlier that the most popular compliance option for fuel EU" }, { "start": 1742.87, "end": 1746.59, "text": "are biofuels, liquid Biofuels. So owners" }, { "start": 1746.59, "end": 1750.35, "text": "burn biofuels in one or more vessels and they pull" }, { "start": 1750.35, "end": 1754.08, "text": "all the rest and they are compliant, which is a perfect and very" }, { "start": 1754.08, "end": 1757.92, "text": "good solution. But the challenge here is that" }, { "start": 1758.16, "end": 1761.12, "text": "this may not be like that in the future," }, { "start": 1761.92, "end": 1765.16, "text": "because today you can find small quantities of" }, { "start": 1765.16, "end": 1768.4, "text": "biofuels. But still, if you see the Numbers," }, { "start": 1768.72, "end": 1772.04, "text": "shipping uses 0.6% of the global" }, { "start": 1772.04, "end": 1775.76, "text": "biofuel supply. The aviation is using" }, { "start": 1775.76, "end": 1779.44, "text": "0.5. That means something more than 1%." }, { "start": 1780.3, "end": 1784.02, "text": "The rest, 99% is used by road. And" }, { "start": 1784.02, "end": 1787.58, "text": "if road industry is eager to pay more, they will get the" }, { "start": 1787.58, "end": 1791.26, "text": "lion's share. So now in the future we expect electrification" }, { "start": 1791.26, "end": 1795.02, "text": "of the road transports to reduce the demand" }, { "start": 1795.02, "end": 1798.3, "text": "on fuels and therefore biofuels. But" }, { "start": 1798.62, "end": 1802.42, "text": "also aviation needs to decarbonise, so the" }, { "start": 1802.42, "end": 1805.94, "text": "biofuels that may be available from the less demand of" }, { "start": 1805.94, "end": 1809.78, "text": "road assumingly will be consumed by aviation." }, { "start": 1809.78, "end": 1813.46, "text": "So the risk that you pose is very true that we may" }, { "start": 1813.46, "end": 1816.82, "text": "be left out of some of the options just because of the cost." }, { "start": 1817.54, "end": 1821.02, "text": "Now, in essence, nobody really knows what's going to happen. It's a bit of a" }, { "start": 1821.02, "end": 1824.74, "text": "chicken and egg problem affected by technology, by" }, { "start": 1824.82, "end": 1828.5, "text": "regulation, by geopolitics, by the global economy" }, { "start": 1828.5, "end": 1832.18, "text": "as a whole. How do ship owners deal with" }, { "start": 1832.18, "end": 1836.02, "text": "that? And I think there's even a term for that that's called fuel optionality." }, { "start": 1836.26, "end": 1839.91, "text": "How can ship owners hedge their bets when" }, { "start": 1839.91, "end": 1843.67, "text": "they invest in essentially very expensive and long term assets" }, { "start": 1843.67, "end": 1847.47, "text": "such as new ships? Well, this is the not million billion" }, { "start": 1847.47, "end": 1850.79, "text": "dollar question and this is where every owner is struggling." }, { "start": 1851.27, "end": 1855.07, "text": "First of all, let's see why it is there. Decision making in shipping" }, { "start": 1855.07, "end": 1858.35, "text": "was always hard, it was not easy. You know, it's not a very" }, { "start": 1858.35, "end": 1862.19, "text": "straightforward industry. You need to be out of the" }, { "start": 1862.19, "end": 1865.68, "text": "box thinking and do a lot of things to be competitive." }, { "start": 1865.92, "end": 1869.64, "text": "But the past years the complexity of the decision making has gone" }, { "start": 1869.64, "end": 1873.32, "text": "over the roof. And the main reason is lack of clarity. We" }, { "start": 1873.32, "end": 1876.8, "text": "have lack of clarity when it comes to regulation, when it comes to the" }, { "start": 1876.8, "end": 1880.32, "text": "fuels availability, to the costs, to technology," }, { "start": 1880.96, "end": 1884.36, "text": "to technology availability. All these have created such an" }, { "start": 1884.36, "end": 1888.08, "text": "uncertainty that it's very hard to take easy decisions." }, { "start": 1888.88, "end": 1892.6, "text": "My personal view is that I don't expect this to go away anytime" }, { "start": 1892.6, "end": 1896.33, "text": "soon. So even if we normalize a bit more and we" }, { "start": 1896.33, "end": 1900.09, "text": "have clarity from IMO or from other schemes, wherever they" }, { "start": 1900.09, "end": 1903.93, "text": "come from, still the complexity will be there because we will be at a" }, { "start": 1903.93, "end": 1907.17, "text": "different level. And in this respect," }, { "start": 1907.81, "end": 1910.77, "text": "what we see today and what we suggest is that" }, { "start": 1911.41, "end": 1914.93, "text": "the ship owners should go for as much flexibility" }, { "start": 1915.25, "end": 1918.85, "text": "as they can afford. It's very simple," }, { "start": 1919.24, "end": 1922.92, "text": "but it is effective. I mean, when you have uncertainty," }, { "start": 1922.92, "end": 1926.68, "text": "the wider you can be diversified, the best position" }, { "start": 1926.68, "end": 1930.12, "text": "you will have in the future. We see many owners that they" }, { "start": 1930.28, "end": 1933.88, "text": "go with one single idea in front." }, { "start": 1934.04, "end": 1937.72, "text": "It is a bet. You take a bet with bigger or smaller stakes." }, { "start": 1938.04, "end": 1941.76, "text": "The wider the flexibility of the vessel, the better is to be" }, { "start": 1941.76, "end": 1945.32, "text": "there. But I assume also the higher the cost. One could probably say because it's" }, { "start": 1945.32, "end": 1949.08, "text": "probably more expensive to have an engine that can burn" }, { "start": 1949.08, "end": 1952.84, "text": "different types of fuel than having one that only burns one. Exactly. And this is" }, { "start": 1952.84, "end": 1956.68, "text": "why I said it's an exercise of balance between the cost and" }, { "start": 1956.68, "end": 1960.12, "text": "the potential attractiveness in the future. So we're" }, { "start": 1960.12, "end": 1963.6, "text": "unfortunately not able to answer the billion dollar question on this podcast. I had hoped" }, { "start": 1963.6, "end": 1967.12, "text": "that you would give it out, but apparently not. So you know, my. Maybe that's" }, { "start": 1967.12, "end": 1970.84, "text": "for your paid consulting with the industry. That is a good" }, { "start": 1970.84, "end": 1974.4, "text": "point. I can also say one more thing that takes one step" }, { "start": 1974.56, "end": 1977.94, "text": "forward and that, you know, it's very typical that the" }, { "start": 1977.94, "end": 1981.58, "text": "decisions are taken based on gut feeling, but this is a" }, { "start": 1981.58, "end": 1985.26, "text": "time that is very critical to take the decisions based on facts." }, { "start": 1985.34, "end": 1989.1, "text": "We have very few facts, but if you can also have some good" }, { "start": 1989.1, "end": 1992.86, "text": "assumptions combining these few facts, then you can do. And this is why I" }, { "start": 1992.86, "end": 1996.7, "text": "always suggest to the ship owners to take the study to do the study." }, { "start": 1996.94, "end": 1999.9, "text": "Let's take an example. If you are to order a new vessel and you know" }, { "start": 1999.9, "end": 2003.62, "text": "that this ship type and size does not go for alternative fuels, you go for" }, { "start": 2003.62, "end": 2007.31, "text": "conventional, still make the exercise because" }, { "start": 2007.31, "end": 2011.15, "text": "the conditions can change so dramatically that" }, { "start": 2011.31, "end": 2015.11, "text": "in one or two years it may make sense. And this" }, { "start": 2015.11, "end": 2018.83, "text": "is where uncertainty kicks in, that when you have uncertainty," }, { "start": 2018.83, "end": 2022.51, "text": "you need knowledge. And the more you test, the more you" }, { "start": 2022.51, "end": 2026.11, "text": "learn, the more you study, the more knowledge you get, the less" }, { "start": 2026.11, "end": 2029.75, "text": "assumptions you have and the more facts you have. So this is one step more" }, { "start": 2029.75, "end": 2030.99, "text": "beyond just being flexible." }, { "start": 2035.7, "end": 2036.9, "text": "Navigators. Table." }, { "start": 2041.54, "end": 2045.38, "text": "Every episode we ask our guests to bring a recommendation for a" }, { "start": 2045.38, "end": 2048.98, "text": "restaurant, a bar, something that has a connection to the maritime world." }, { "start": 2049.54, "end": 2053.14, "text": "Jason, what do you recommend to our listeners? Where should they" }, { "start": 2053.14, "end": 2056.74, "text": "go? Yeah, that is very interesting. Well," }, { "start": 2056.74, "end": 2060.509, "text": "I thinking out of the box. I use that phrase many times today," }, { "start": 2060.509, "end": 2064.109, "text": "so I will do it myself. I would say" }, { "start": 2064.509, "end": 2068.349, "text": "eat wherever people fry things. And I" }, { "start": 2068.349, "end": 2071.989, "text": "can justify it because we talked about biofuels and we" }, { "start": 2071.989, "end": 2075.389, "text": "talked about sustainable biomass, about having sustainable" }, { "start": 2075.549, "end": 2079.389, "text": "feedstock to produce sustainable biofuels. And one" }, { "start": 2079.389, "end": 2083.189, "text": "way to do it is to use residual cooking oil. And this" }, { "start": 2083.189, "end": 2086.989, "text": "is something that is fueling most of our vessels. Now there are companies that" }, { "start": 2086.989, "end": 2090.6, "text": "collect used cooking oil and process it in" }, { "start": 2090.6, "end": 2094.28, "text": "order to create sustainable biofuels that can solve the" }, { "start": 2094.28, "end": 2097.92, "text": "Other problem. So if I had to pick one restaurant would" }, { "start": 2097.92, "end": 2101.6, "text": "be something that fries things. Good. I'm not sure this will" }, { "start": 2101.6, "end": 2105.28, "text": "go down very well with health professionals. But still, I mean, fried food" }, { "start": 2105.28, "end": 2108.88, "text": "is at least tasty. So Jason recommends eat more" }, { "start": 2108.88, "end": 2112.72, "text": "fried food. That will help the industry because the cooking oil can be" }, { "start": 2113.36, "end": 2115.44, "text": "recycled for ships." }, { "start": 2117.36, "end": 2120.88, "text": "That is an interesting take on alternative fuels as well. I hadn't thought of it" }, { "start": 2120.96, "end": 2124.52, "text": "that way. Now, we've talked a lot about alternative" }, { "start": 2124.52, "end": 2128.24, "text": "fuels, but of course there is other ways that ship owners can" }, { "start": 2128.24, "end": 2131.96, "text": "increase the efficiency of their vessels. Can you" }, { "start": 2131.96, "end": 2135.76, "text": "maybe give us an overview of what kind of the main things are" }, { "start": 2135.76, "end": 2139.52, "text": "that you are working on with your clients right now? Yeah." }, { "start": 2139.52, "end": 2143.36, "text": "Energy efficiency is something that has always been on the top of the agenda" }, { "start": 2143.36, "end": 2147.0, "text": "of ship owners. Again, it's not something new. We have been working" }, { "start": 2147.0, "end": 2150.72, "text": "for decades. Technical departments of ship owners have" }, { "start": 2150.88, "end": 2154.72, "text": "long experience of assessing and implementing and using technology." }, { "start": 2155.68, "end": 2159.0, "text": "And the driver, of course has always been that it reduces" }, { "start": 2159.0, "end": 2162.8, "text": "consumption and therefore reduces the costs and today" }, { "start": 2162.8, "end": 2166.48, "text": "also reduces emissions and emissions costs. The difference" }, { "start": 2166.48, "end": 2170.08, "text": "we see now is that we are going through a golden decade of" }, { "start": 2170.16, "end": 2173.2, "text": "innovation in energy efficiency. We have an abundance of development." }, { "start": 2174.58, "end": 2178.22, "text": "This is good because we have more solutions, but" }, { "start": 2178.22, "end": 2181.78, "text": "also creates a risk, creates the risk that we" }, { "start": 2182.66, "end": 2186.46, "text": "may have challenges to actually accurately verify" }, { "start": 2186.46, "end": 2190.179, "text": "savings. When we have new technologies, we are not mature" }, { "start": 2190.26, "end": 2193.82, "text": "to understand if they actually work or not. We see" }, { "start": 2193.82, "end": 2197.66, "text": "claims that can be exaggerating sometimes. And" }, { "start": 2197.66, "end": 2200.98, "text": "this is where we have been working also as DNV the past years to develop" }, { "start": 2201.8, "end": 2205.48, "text": "science based, data based methodologies to assess" }, { "start": 2205.56, "end": 2209.4, "text": "the technology. And this is where we always try to help" }, { "start": 2209.4, "end": 2213.12, "text": "the industry and the ship owners test the technology. Make sure you" }, { "start": 2213.12, "end": 2216.44, "text": "have science based scientific methodologies to" }, { "start": 2216.76, "end": 2220.36, "text": "understand the technology and then you can see if you can scale it" }, { "start": 2220.36, "end": 2224.2, "text": "up when it comes to which technologies are more used." }, { "start": 2224.52, "end": 2228.29, "text": "I think hydrodynamic solutions are the most" }, { "start": 2228.29, "end": 2231.41, "text": "popular ones because they are easy to implement. They have been," }, { "start": 2231.89, "end": 2235.69, "text": "you know, it's easy to verify the savings and they have" }, { "start": 2235.69, "end": 2239.01, "text": "quite good returns on investment. We also have" }, { "start": 2239.01, "end": 2242.73, "text": "machinery improvements, but also we see more and" }, { "start": 2242.73, "end": 2246.45, "text": "more interest in bigger and more exotic solutions. And the" }, { "start": 2246.45, "end": 2250.13, "text": "best example is wind assisted propulsion systems. We have seen" }, { "start": 2250.13, "end": 2253.61, "text": "a very big rise of interest. I can" }, { "start": 2253.61, "end": 2257.23, "text": "remember myself 15 years ago talking about wind sales" }, { "start": 2257.23, "end": 2260.87, "text": "to a group of technical owners and they were almost" }, { "start": 2260.87, "end": 2264.39, "text": "laughing about the idea. And today it is a" }, { "start": 2264.39, "end": 2268.03, "text": "reality. Another disclaimer is that it's not for" }, { "start": 2268.03, "end": 2271.71, "text": "everyone, right? And this goes for all the technology, the" }, { "start": 2271.71, "end": 2275.43, "text": "new technology. It does not mean that we will have 100% uptake" }, { "start": 2275.43, "end": 2279.19, "text": "of the fleet, but where it makes sense." }, { "start": 2279.35, "end": 2283.1, "text": "It really makes sense and can have a good impact. And it is" }, { "start": 2283.1, "end": 2286.94, "text": "a matter of using the technology, getting more knowledge and then" }, { "start": 2286.94, "end": 2290.42, "text": "finding new ways of operation, reducing the capex" }, { "start": 2290.9, "end": 2294.62, "text": "and also finding even new business models of how this could" }, { "start": 2294.62, "end": 2298.14, "text": "be used. One example, when it comes to wind to" }, { "start": 2298.14, "end": 2301.98, "text": "counter the big capex and also the challenge that it" }, { "start": 2301.98, "end": 2305.74, "text": "is very route specific savings that you can have, you need" }, { "start": 2305.74, "end": 2309.06, "text": "to have a route that has favorable winds to get" }, { "start": 2309.22, "end": 2313.07, "text": "savings. I know that a few vendors are" }, { "start": 2313.07, "end": 2316.87, "text": "working on a solution. Plus the third element is that it's" }, { "start": 2316.87, "end": 2320.59, "text": "very easy to prepare the vessel to be wind ready. So you make all" }, { "start": 2320.59, "end": 2324.07, "text": "the foundations and the changes and you can retrofit" }, { "start": 2324.15, "end": 2327.19, "text": "the windsail in less than two days" }, { "start": 2327.35, "end": 2331.11, "text": "alongside. You don't even need to go to dry dock. So if you combine all" }, { "start": 2331.11, "end": 2334.83, "text": "these three, we see vendors working on solutions that you can" }, { "start": 2334.83, "end": 2338.45, "text": "have your vessel ready to take a sail. It does not" }, { "start": 2339.01, "end": 2342.77, "text": "have the sail installed. So it's not the owner has not paid for the investment." }, { "start": 2343.25, "end": 2346.69, "text": "But then when you sift and you have a route that you know for the" }, { "start": 2346.69, "end": 2350.21, "text": "next six months will be on favorable winds like the North Atlantic," }, { "start": 2350.45, "end": 2354.05, "text": "then you retrofit the sail, you use it for the six" }, { "start": 2354.05, "end": 2357.17, "text": "months and then you take it out, it can go to another vessel." }, { "start": 2357.57, "end": 2361.33, "text": "Solutions like that need to be investigated. You know, as I" }, { "start": 2361.33, "end": 2365.17, "text": "said earlier, we are at a stage of the decarbonisation journey" }, { "start": 2365.17, "end": 2368.48, "text": "that we need to explore everything. We need to to leave no" }, { "start": 2368.56, "end": 2372.24, "text": "stone unturned in order to identify what can we do and how" }, { "start": 2372.24, "end": 2375.96, "text": "can we achieve our goals to reduce emissions. Yeah, I mean it's interesting" }, { "start": 2375.96, "end": 2379.4, "text": "but there's also a lot of innovation. Of course we recently at another event we" }, { "start": 2379.4, "end": 2383.0, "text": "talked about these systems and there's of course the sails, but there's also the" }, { "start": 2383.0, "end": 2386.6, "text": "flattener rotors installed in a fixed way on a ship. I also" }, { "start": 2386.6, "end": 2390.4, "text": "think they experiments with certain types of coatings I believe that" }, { "start": 2390.4, "end": 2394.12, "text": "somehow enhance energy efficiency. Propellers, of course, different types of" }, { "start": 2394.12, "end": 2397.12, "text": "propellers. That was probably what you referred earlier to. Right. With" }, { "start": 2397.68, "end": 2401.04, "text": "hydro efficiency. Okay, so you would say there is no" }, { "start": 2401.68, "end": 2405.52, "text": "one solution where you say outside of alternative fuels is kind of" }, { "start": 2405.52, "end": 2409.16, "text": "the solution that yields the most results globally" }, { "start": 2409.16, "end": 2412.92, "text": "speaking? No, I would say it depends on the ship type and size. It's" }, { "start": 2412.92, "end": 2416.72, "text": "similar to the fuels. Right. It's not for every vessel." }, { "start": 2416.96, "end": 2420.64, "text": "Jason, we've already actually come to the end of this episode. We" }, { "start": 2420.8, "end": 2424.24, "text": "understand that it's all very much in flux as of course we knew before." }, { "start": 2424.64, "end": 2428.4, "text": "We need to rely on data that is solid and this" }, { "start": 2428.4, "end": 2432.02, "text": "also impartial. I guess that is one of the roles that DNV and other" }, { "start": 2432.02, "end": 2435.74, "text": "classification societies play in this world. So thank you very much for" }, { "start": 2435.74, "end": 2439.34, "text": "taking the time to being a guest here on this show today. Thank you very" }, { "start": 2439.34, "end": 2443.18, "text": "much for a very live and vibrant discussion as well. My pleasure to be here." }, { "start": 2443.42, "end": 2444.94, "text": "Likewise. Thanks Jason." }, { "start": 2452.3, "end": 2456.14, "text": "Thank you for listening to this episode. I hope you learned something new." }, { "start": 2456.55, "end": 2460.19, "text": "If you like the show, please leave us a review and a rating on your" }, { "start": 2460.19, "end": 2463.95, "text": "favorite podcasting platform. And don't forget to check out" }, { "start": 2463.95, "end": 2467.67, "text": "the show notes and more information about the German Maritime Centre" }, { "start": 2467.75, "end": 2470.79, "text": "at maritimematters.de." } ]