[
  {
    "start": 0.26,
    "end": 5.64,
    "text": "Hi, I'm Richie, your podcast host and I'm happy to present you another episode in this"
  },
  {
    "start": 6.0,
    "end": 6.72,
    "text": "quality series."
  },
  {
    "start": 7.73,
    "end": 11.72,
    "text": "As you know this podcast is a podcast for the software community, so for you."
  },
  {
    "start": 12.17,
    "end": 16.46,
    "text": "So please send me your feedback to topics and guests you would like to hear and see"
  },
  {
    "start": 16.54,
    "end": 17.34,
    "text": "in this podcast."
  },
  {
    "start": 18.1,
    "end": 22.34,
    "text": "Yes, see too, because this podcast is also available with video on YouTube."
  },
  {
    "start": 22.88,
    "end": 23.6,
    "text": "Just take a look."
  },
  {
    "start": 24.86,
    "end": 30.28,
    "text": "So please send your feedback to podcast@testing-unleashed.fm."
  },
  {
    "start": 31.54,
    "end": 35.78,
    "text": "Today I talk with one of the sharpest minds in software thinking, Kevlin Henney."
  },
  {
    "start": 36.74,
    "end": 41.66,
    "text": "His author, speaker and a master of putting things in a perspective, especially when we"
  },
  {
    "start": 41.72,
    "end": 42.8,
    "text": "talk about the future."
  },
  {
    "start": 44.34,
    "end": 46.28,
    "text": "Together we looked into the crystal ball."
  },
  {
    "start": 46.98,
    "end": 49.9,
    "text": "Will AI take over software engineering?"
  },
  {
    "start": 51.24,
    "end": 58.36,
    "text": "And will be maybe coding look like other in the year 2035 or maybe still like the same as today?"
  },
  {
    "start": 59.82,
    "end": 64.8,
    "text": "And what makes good developers stand out even in an AI driven world?"
  },
  {
    "start": 66.02,
    "end": 71.6,
    "text": "And finally, why understanding people might be more important than understanding tools"
  },
  {
    "start": 71.6,
    "end": 72.26,
    "text": "in the future?"
  },
  {
    "start": 73.74,
    "end": 76.74,
    "text": "Are you ready for the time travel into the future?"
  },
  {
    "start": 77.34,
    "end": 78.38,
    "text": "So let's dive in."
  },
  {
    "start": 78.48,
    "end": 81.6,
    "text": "Hi Kevlin, nice to have you here on the podcast."
  },
  {
    "start": 81.94,
    "end": 82.96,
    "text": "Yeah, excellent."
  },
  {
    "start": 83.66,
    "end": 91.42,
    "text": "Thank you that you joined here for the OOP and you have a talk in the afternoon today"
  },
  {
    "start": 91.54,
    "end": 91.76,
    "text": "I think?"
  },
  {
    "start": 92.08,
    "end": 97.6,
    "text": "Yes, so I have a talk that I'm doing the end of the afternoon with Frank Bushman."
  },
  {
    "start": 98.26,
    "end": 102.56,
    "text": "And then I have another talk that I'm doing just solo tomorrow just before."
  },
  {
    "start": 102.64,
    "end": 103.16,
    "text": "Ah yes,"
  },
  {
    "start": 103.22,
    "end": 103.9,
    "text": "yes, great."
  },
  {
    "start": 104.68,
    "end": 110.62,
    "text": "I read the abstracts in front of the conference and I saw you had one abstract about the future"
  },
  {
    "start": 111.22,
    "end": 120.58,
    "text": "prediction maybe or some possible future for software engineers. Will we work in 2034"
  },
  {
    "start": 120.58,
    "end": 120.92,
    "text": "or"
  },
  {
    "start": 121.05,
    "end": 121.24,
    "text": "something?"
  },
  {
    "start": 121.9,
    "end": 123.52,
    "text": "That's right. Yeah, that's what I'm doing with"
  },
  {
    "start": 123.52,
    "end": 125.1,
    "text": "Frank. We're kind of"
  },
  {
    "start": 125.88,
    "end": 134.66,
    "text": "doing a little bit of crystal ball gazing. And it's the software engineers playbook 2034. So"
  },
  {
    "start": 134.66,
    "end": 142.0,
    "text": "be doing. And obviously, there's a lot we could put in that talk, but it's only one"
  },
  {
    "start": 142.04,
    "end": 144.62,
    "text": "hour. So we've actually spent a lot of time deleting"
  },
  {
    "start": 144.62,
    "end": 145.76,
    "text": "slides and deleting"
  },
  {
    "start": 145.76,
    "end": 147.0,
    "text": "content. So to"
  },
  {
    "start": 147.1,
    "end": 149.48,
    "text": "come up with a kind of a smaller core message."
  },
  {
    "start": 149.74,
    "end": 154.42,
    "text": "Yeah, yeah. So that's I want to talk about this also here in this in this in this episode,"
  },
  {
    "start": 154.94,
    "end": 160.36,
    "text": "because it's the future is always a part I mentioned, I'm known the future optimist."
  },
  {
    "start": 161.06,
    "end": 166.14,
    "text": "And so I'm very happy to talk about what is your prediction, what is your crystal view"
  },
  {
    "start": 166.34,
    "end": 168.58,
    "text": "to the to the future of software engineering?"
  },
  {
    "start": 169.0,
    "end": 174.8,
    "text": "Yeah, it's kind of interesting because I may be slightly less of a techno optimist than"
  },
  {
    "start": 174.82,
    "end": 175.42,
    "text": "I used to be."
  },
  {
    "start": 178.15,
    "end": 184.96,
    "text": "And the I think my view of the future, and I think myself and Frank have slightly different"
  },
  {
    "start": 185.06,
    "end": 187.38,
    "text": "paths on this, which I think is going to make for an interesting talk."
  },
  {
    "start": 187.9,
    "end": 190.54,
    "text": "one of my perspectives when I look at the data,"
  },
  {
    "start": 192.12,
    "end": 194.18,
    "text": "it's not going to be as different as people think it is."
  },
  {
    "start": 194.32,
    "end": 194.64,
    "text": "It's going to"
  },
  {
    "start": 194.64,
    "end": 197.26,
    "text": "be different in kind of look at the current trends,"
  },
  {
    "start": 197.44,
    "end": 198.3,
    "text": "see where those are going."
  },
  {
    "start": 198.78,
    "end": 199.8,
    "text": "Yeah, there's nothing radical."
  },
  {
    "start": 201.46,
    "end": 203.96,
    "text": "There's a few things that are going to kind of shift a bit."
  },
  {
    "start": 204.91,
    "end": 207.26,
    "text": "All you have to do is to think,"
  },
  {
    "start": 207.4,
    "end": 210.14,
    "text": "\"Okay, if now is 2024, what was 2014"
  },
  {
    "start": 210.14,
    "end": 210.72,
    "text": "like?\""
  },
  {
    "start": 211.08,
    "end": 211.32,
    "text": "If"
  },
  {
    "start": 211.32,
    "end": 214.16,
    "text": "you can remember 2014, what was 2004 like?"
  },
  {
    "start": 214.18,
    "end": 216.48,
    "text": "If you can remember 2004, what was 1994 like?"
  },
  {
    "start": 216.66,
    "end": 223.74,
    "text": "And I have been in software development for longer than that."
  },
  {
    "start": 224.16,
    "end": 225.92,
    "text": "And so it's interesting to look at the cycles"
  },
  {
    "start": 225.92,
    "end": 226.7,
    "text": "and"
  },
  {
    "start": 226.7,
    "end": 227.24,
    "text": "then start saying,"
  },
  {
    "start": 227.3,
    "end": 230.28,
    "text": "\"Oh yeah, there are real differences between how I was developing"
  },
  {
    "start": 230.28,
    "end": 230.92,
    "text": "now"
  },
  {
    "start": 230.92,
    "end": 231.42,
    "text": "and then.\""
  },
  {
    "start": 231.68,
    "end": 234.46,
    "text": "And there are also some things that absolutely haven't changed"
  },
  {
    "start": 234.54,
    "end": 235.96,
    "text": "or have just moved very"
  },
  {
    "start": 235.96,
    "end": 237.06,
    "text": "slightly and"
  },
  {
    "start": 237.06,
    "end": 237.72,
    "text": "to look at those."
  },
  {
    "start": 237.84,
    "end": 241.28,
    "text": "And so if we look at things like 2034,"
  },
  {
    "start": 241.48,
    "end": 245.64,
    "text": "I mean, one of the ones that I have been going on about to people is just like,"
  },
  {
    "start": 246.02,
    "end": 249.32,
    "text": "Programming languages, yeah, they're whatever you're using today."
  },
  {
    "start": 249.86,
    "end": 251.84,
    "text": "That is going to be 80 to 90 percent."
  },
  {
    "start": 251.84,
    "end": 253.4,
    "text": "If you actually look at the data,"
  },
  {
    "start": 254.54,
    "end": 255.66,
    "text": "when we actually look at the data,"
  },
  {
    "start": 256.76,
    "end": 258.34,
    "text": "the top five languages in use,"
  },
  {
    "start": 258.66,
    "end": 259.68,
    "text": "none of them was developed,"
  },
  {
    "start": 260.12,
    "end": 261.32,
    "text": "sorry, that's not true."
  },
  {
    "start": 261.519,
    "end": 263.84,
    "text": "One of them was developed in the 21st century."
  },
  {
    "start": 264.56,
    "end": 264.96,
    "text": "Most"
  },
  {
    "start": 264.96,
    "end": 266.22,
    "text": "people are programming in"
  },
  {
    "start": 266.52,
    "end": 268.3,
    "text": "languages that were developed in the 20th century."
  },
  {
    "start": 268.32,
    "end": 271.26,
    "text": "If you look at the top 20 languages, it's still there."
  },
  {
    "start": 271.38,
    "end": 273.34,
    "text": "If you look at the top 50, it's still there."
  },
  {
    "start": 273.42,
    "end": 278.9,
    "text": "So in other words, programming language movement is actually really not that big."
  },
  {
    "start": 279.0,
    "end": 283.4,
    "text": "The languages themselves evolve, but the makeup of the languages, no, not really."
  },
  {
    "start": 283.49,
    "end": 286.94,
    "text": "You know, I get a lot of people say, \"Oh, yeah, but we'll be all..."
  },
  {
    "start": 286.94,
    "end": 290.6,
    "text": "So if I'm programming native, will I be using Rust in 2034?\""
  },
  {
    "start": 290.84,
    "end": 292.3,
    "text": "Actually, there's a fairly good chance."
  },
  {
    "start": 293.0,
    "end": 295.32,
    "text": "But Rust is already at this point over 10 years old."
  },
  {
    "start": 295.57,
    "end": 297.38,
    "text": "So there's nobody there."
  },
  {
    "start": 297.9,
    "end": 301.059,
    "text": "There are no languages that were developed in the 2020s"
  },
  {
    "start": 301.06,
    "end": 303.76,
    "text": "that are in the top 20 languages of use at this point."
  },
  {
    "start": 304.1,
    "end": 307.76,
    "text": "So, the point there is something's moved much more slowly."
  },
  {
    "start": 309.5,
    "end": 312.66,
    "text": "If we look at other trends in terms of our development,"
  },
  {
    "start": 313.42,
    "end": 315.8,
    "text": "Agile development, or at least the name has become very normal."
  },
  {
    "start": 317.14,
    "end": 318.92,
    "text": "The number of people actually doing Agile development,"
  },
  {
    "start": 319.36,
    "end": 320.4,
    "text": "it's still pretty low."
  },
  {
    "start": 320.88,
    "end": 323.02,
    "text": "I suspect that that won't change 2034."
  },
  {
    "start": 324.4,
    "end": 326.92,
    "text": "We look at other things, other certain technologies."
  },
  {
    "start": 327.32,
    "end": 329.24,
    "text": "Some people think of 5G as being the future."
  },
  {
    "start": 329.26,
    "end": 330.6,
    "text": "I think of it as being the present."
  },
  {
    "start": 331.06,
    "end": 331.46,
    "text": "So,"
  },
  {
    "start": 332.22,
    "end": 333.6,
    "text": "we're looking to 6G, maybe."
  },
  {
    "start": 334.18,
    "end": 335.8,
    "text": "And then we have the other areas,"
  },
  {
    "start": 336.02,
    "end": 338.86,
    "text": "which some of which are hype-driven, metaverse,"
  },
  {
    "start": 340.78,
    "end": 341.8,
    "text": "cryptocurrency and things like that."
  },
  {
    "start": 342.14,
    "end": 344.74,
    "text": "If we look at just the last couple of years trends on those,"
  },
  {
    "start": 344.88,
    "end": 349.66,
    "text": "those are pretty much crashed as a vision of the future."
  },
  {
    "start": 349.9,
    "end": 351.98,
    "text": "They will have potentially a place,"
  },
  {
    "start": 352.12,
    "end": 353.52,
    "text": "but it's not going to be a dominating place."
  },
  {
    "start": 353.56,
    "end": 353.64,
    "text": "There's"
  },
  {
    "start": 353.64,
    "end": 354.24,
    "text": "no evidence"
  },
  {
    "start": 354.24,
    "end": 354.62,
    "text": "of that."
  },
  {
    "start": 355.22,
    "end": 357.72,
    "text": "Web3, people have been talking about it for over a decade."
  },
  {
    "start": 358.26,
    "end": 360.52,
    "text": "By that point, if you look at Web 2,"
  },
  {
    "start": 360.84,
    "end": 363.4,
    "text": "Web 2, within the decade of that term being coined,"
  },
  {
    "start": 363.51,
    "end": 364.16,
    "text": "it was a thing."
  },
  {
    "start": 364.64,
    "end": 366.26,
    "text": "Ten years on from Web 3 being talked about,"
  },
  {
    "start": 366.36,
    "end": 367.3,
    "text": "it's still not a thing."
  },
  {
    "start": 367.54,
    "end": 369.38,
    "text": "And you know what? I don't think it ever is going to be a"
  },
  {
    "start": 369.38,
    "end": 369.44,
    "text": "thing."
  },
  {
    "start": 369.58,
    "end": 369.94,
    "text": "There's no"
  },
  {
    "start": 369.94,
    "end": 371.94,
    "text": "evidence to suggest we're moving in that direction."
  },
  {
    "start": 373.4,
    "end": 375.68,
    "text": "Cryptocurrencies, central bank, digital currency,"
  },
  {
    "start": 375.94,
    "end": 377.52,
    "text": "might become a thing. That's quite credible."
  },
  {
    "start": 378.18,
    "end": 380.38,
    "text": "The rest, everybody's now kind of, yeah,"
  },
  {
    "start": 380.5,
    "end": 381.62,
    "text": "it's not treated as currency."
  },
  {
    "start": 381.94,
    "end": 384.12,
    "text": "So again, we don't see any evidence of change there."
  },
  {
    "start": 385.44,
    "end": 386.56,
    "text": "Metaverse is fragmented."
  },
  {
    "start": 386.98,
    "end": 388.18,
    "text": "I don't think we're going to get a metaverse."
  },
  {
    "start": 388.18,
    "end": 390.98,
    "text": "I think we're just going to get a few more AR and VR things."
  },
  {
    "start": 391.9,
    "end": 392.98,
    "text": "And there are certain niches,"
  },
  {
    "start": 393.92,
    "end": 395.76,
    "text": "some industrial applications and gaming."
  },
  {
    "start": 396.12,
    "end": 398.06,
    "text": "That's I think that's where it's going to be."
  },
  {
    "start": 398.22,
    "end": 400.08,
    "text": "But is it going to be a thing that people use every day"
  },
  {
    "start": 400.66,
    "end": 403.3,
    "text": "in a deep, immersive sense for all of their time?"
  },
  {
    "start": 404.16,
    "end": 405.02,
    "text": "Gaming. Yeah."
  },
  {
    "start": 405.86,
    "end": 406.68,
    "text": "And we already have that."
  },
  {
    "start": 406.92,
    "end": 409.54,
    "text": "So in other words, that's a continuation of that line."
  },
  {
    "start": 409.86,
    "end": 411.76,
    "text": "But the one everybody wants to talk about is AI."
  },
  {
    "start": 412.02,
    "end": 413.54,
    "text": "Yeah. Yeah. I'm saving that one."
  },
  {
    "start": 413.78,
    "end": 415.12,
    "text": "That's the one everybody wants to talk about."
  },
  {
    "start": 415.16,
    "end": 415.92,
    "text": "I was waiting for it."
  },
  {
    "start": 415.94,
    "end": 416.18,
    "text": "Yeah, you"
  },
  {
    "start": 416.18,
    "end": 416.3,
    "text": "were"
  },
  {
    "start": 416.3,
    "end": 416.72,
    "text": "waiting for that."
  },
  {
    "start": 417.78,
    "end": 418.12,
    "text": "I just"
  },
  {
    "start": 418.12,
    "end": 419.48,
    "text": "thought I could start with that one now."
  },
  {
    "start": 420.14,
    "end": 421.86,
    "text": "That's the one everybody wants to know about."
  },
  {
    "start": 422.02,
    "end": 424.36,
    "text": "And there are reasons to,"
  },
  {
    "start": 425.18,
    "end": 427.6,
    "text": "there are certain things in the broad application of AI"
  },
  {
    "start": 427.88,
    "end": 431.7,
    "text": "that are at this point uncertain"
  },
  {
    "start": 431.94,
    "end": 435.72,
    "text": "in terms of the relationship between AI and big data."
  },
  {
    "start": 435.77,
    "end": 437.88,
    "text": "And therefore, where did that data come from?"
  },
  {
    "start": 438.34,
    "end": 441.24,
    "text": "What are the legal ramifications of that data?"
  },
  {
    "start": 441.66,
    "end": 443.72,
    "text": "What are the existing intellectual property laws"
  },
  {
    "start": 443.93,
    "end": 444.84,
    "text": "that are being enforced?"
  },
  {
    "start": 445.3,
    "end": 447.82,
    "text": "And that's currently going through the courts."
  },
  {
    "start": 448.4,
    "end": 451.16,
    "text": "This question of large data training sets"
  },
  {
    "start": 451.84,
    "end": 454.2,
    "text": "and the relationship to copyright."
  },
  {
    "start": 456.34,
    "end": 457.8,
    "text": "There's a lot of interesting stuff there."
  },
  {
    "start": 457.9,
    "end": 459.94,
    "text": "I can't predict the future of what courts are going to do."
  },
  {
    "start": 460.06,
    "end": 461.3,
    "text": "So, I'm not even going to try."
  },
  {
    "start": 463.92,
    "end": 466.36,
    "text": "But that is something we need to watch over the next couple of years"
  },
  {
    "start": 466.44,
    "end": 468.68,
    "text": "because that will influence the future."
  },
  {
    "start": 469.76,
    "end": 472.719,
    "text": "The question of ethical considerations"
  },
  {
    "start": 472.72,
    "end": 477.84,
    "text": "on how much of a relationship we have with checking the results,"
  },
  {
    "start": 478.0,
    "end": 481.18,
    "text": "particularly when it comes to systems that are automated"
  },
  {
    "start": 481.38,
    "end": 483.68,
    "text": "and make judgments that affect human lives."
  },
  {
    "start": 484.72,
    "end": 488.26,
    "text": "This is a question not of technical ability."
  },
  {
    "start": 488.64,
    "end": 491.24,
    "text": "Anybody who is framing it as a question of technology"
  },
  {
    "start": 491.25,
    "end": 493.52,
    "text": "has misunderstood how people work."
  },
  {
    "start": 493.98,
    "end": 496.04,
    "text": "This is a question of our involvement."
  },
  {
    "start": 496.2,
    "end": 496.32,
    "text": "This"
  },
  {
    "start": 496.32,
    "end": 496.78,
    "text": "is a question"
  },
  {
    "start": 496.78,
    "end": 498.32,
    "text": "of what do we want"
  },
  {
    "start": 498.58,
    "end": 500.28,
    "text": "and how do we want to shape that."
  },
  {
    "start": 500.32,
    "end": 503.22,
    "text": "It's very much, and I don't just mean we in the development space,"
  },
  {
    "start": 503.3,
    "end": 504.38,
    "text": "that's a broad question."
  },
  {
    "start": 505.02,
    "end": 508.76,
    "text": "And we should not just let somebody who's a tech bro"
  },
  {
    "start": 508.88,
    "end": 510.12,
    "text": "just tell us what it's going to be."
  },
  {
    "start": 510.42,
    "end": 511.5,
    "text": "No, we have a choice here."
  },
  {
    "start": 511.82,
    "end": 515.159,
    "text": "And the evidence is that if we don't properly take the choice,"
  },
  {
    "start": 515.7,
    "end": 517.12,
    "text": "a number of people are going to be disadvantaged"
  },
  {
    "start": 517.979,
    "end": 522.56,
    "text": "because that's the very nature of a statistical-based approach to AI."
  },
  {
    "start": 522.76,
    "end": 522.94,
    "text": "It is"
  },
  {
    "start": 522.94,
    "end": 523.219,
    "text": "not a"
  },
  {
    "start": 523.219,
    "end": 524.86,
    "text": "reason-based approach, it's statistical."
  },
  {
    "start": 525.3,
    "end": 527.4,
    "text": "And the problem with anything that is statistically based"
  },
  {
    "start": 527.76,
    "end": 527.92,
    "text": "is it"
  },
  {
    "start": 527.92,
    "end": 529.44,
    "text": "represents an image of the past."
  },
  {
    "start": 529.92,
    "end": 532.26,
    "text": "and it represents the most likely,"
  },
  {
    "start": 532.4,
    "end": 534.54,
    "text": "but that means it ignores edge cases"
  },
  {
    "start": 535.0,
    "end": 535.24,
    "text": "or"
  },
  {
    "start": 535.24,
    "end": 537.88,
    "text": "the things that are seen to be less than a majority."
  },
  {
    "start": 538.64,
    "end": 540.28,
    "text": "So we need to watch out for that one"
  },
  {
    "start": 540.34,
    "end": 541.72,
    "text": "in terms of the social implications."
  },
  {
    "start": 542.12,
    "end": 544.2,
    "text": "But I think we're already aware of this."
  },
  {
    "start": 544.47,
    "end": 545.6,
    "text": "I don't think that's news."
  },
  {
    "start": 546.25,
    "end": 548.54,
    "text": "I just think that that now becomes a thing."
  },
  {
    "start": 548.58,
    "end": 552.82,
    "text": "And we need to also see how legislation is going to affect it."
  },
  {
    "start": 554.7,
    "end": 558.2,
    "text": "The EU directive on this is one of the first."
  },
  {
    "start": 558.84,
    "end": 563.34,
    "text": "The question is, will it be as influential to the world as GDPR was,"
  },
  {
    "start": 563.5,
    "end": 564.18,
    "text": "which has been hugely"
  },
  {
    "start": 564.18,
    "end": 564.72,
    "text": "influential."
  },
  {
    "start": 565.88,
    "end": 568.06,
    "text": "And it's not entirely clear that it is."
  },
  {
    "start": 568.12,
    "end": 569.42,
    "text": "It's been a little bit watered down."
  },
  {
    "start": 569.57,
    "end": 573.46,
    "text": "It's probably not going to really take force until at least next year,"
  },
  {
    "start": 573.73,
    "end": 576.46,
    "text": "and from a practical point of view, perhaps even 2026."
  },
  {
    "start": 576.84,
    "end": 579.32,
    "text": "So I think that one is too soon to tell,"
  },
  {
    "start": 579.88,
    "end": 582.1,
    "text": "but we need to see what other governments are going to do."
  },
  {
    "start": 582.26,
    "end": 585.6,
    "text": "So is there going to be any kind of international consensus,"
  },
  {
    "start": 586.06,
    "end": 587.26,
    "text": "or is there going to be huge differences?"
  },
  {
    "start": 587.76,
    "end": 589.86,
    "text": "that also tells us something about the future."
  },
  {
    "start": 590.48,
    "end": 592.74,
    "text": "But obviously, what a lot of developers want to know is,"
  },
  {
    "start": 593.2,
    "end": 595.78,
    "text": "\"What is AI going to do for me or to me?"
  },
  {
    "start": 596.32,
    "end": 599.04,
    "text": "Will I have a job in 2034?\""
  },
  {
    "start": 599.7,
    "end": 601.6,
    "text": "And I made a prediction last year."
  },
  {
    "start": 601.74,
    "end": 602.92,
    "text": "Actually, I made a few predictions."
  },
  {
    "start": 603.06,
    "end": 605.86,
    "text": "I'm going to rest on these because I'm not normally..."
  },
  {
    "start": 605.86,
    "end": 608.44,
    "text": "I always tell people, \"Prediction is a fool's"
  },
  {
    "start": 608.44,
    "end": 609.88,
    "text": "game.\""
  },
  {
    "start": 610.759,
    "end": 612.24,
    "text": "And you're most likely wrong."
  },
  {
    "start": 612.36,
    "end": 612.56,
    "text": "So"
  },
  {
    "start": 612.56,
    "end": 613.28,
    "text": "I'm going to"
  },
  {
    "start": 613.28,
    "end": 615.0,
    "text": "very definitely cherry pick"
  },
  {
    "start": 615.68,
    "end": 616.8,
    "text": "the ones that I have got right."
  },
  {
    "start": 617.04,
    "end": 621.0,
    "text": "In 2016, I was asked a question about AI and the future."
  },
  {
    "start": 621.2,
    "end": 623.66,
    "text": "And I said, \"Do I think we have a job?\""
  },
  {
    "start": 624.18,
    "end": 624.5,
    "text": "\"Yes.\""
  },
  {
    "start": 624.68,
    "end": 628.26,
    "text": "And I got my answer, and it was at MobiConf in Poland in 2016."
  },
  {
    "start": 628.42,
    "end": 630.84,
    "text": "So, you actually find this in the Q&A on the video."
  },
  {
    "start": 631.74,
    "end": 634.56,
    "text": "And I said, \"Yeah, developers are going to be needed.\""
  },
  {
    "start": 636.54,
    "end": 638.34,
    "text": "The concept of development doesn't change."
  },
  {
    "start": 638.6,
    "end": 641.3,
    "text": "All those people who say, \"Oh, yeah, we're going to have natural language programming,"
  },
  {
    "start": 641.38,
    "end": 642.42,
    "text": "and that's going to be fantastic.\""
  },
  {
    "start": 642.42,
    "end": 644.62,
    "text": "It's like, you really need to understand history."
  },
  {
    "start": 644.8,
    "end": 646.1,
    "text": "First of all, you need to understand history."
  },
  {
    "start": 646.12,
    "end": 649.24,
    "text": "Then you need to understand the language and you need to go and talk to some customers."
  },
  {
    "start": 649.54,
    "end": 651.4,
    "text": "And then you will realize how safe your job is."
  },
  {
    "start": 653.699,
    "end": 656.52,
    "text": "Because programming is not merely the assembly of syntax."
  },
  {
    "start": 657.28,
    "end": 660.24,
    "text": "It is the application of precision."
  },
  {
    "start": 660.58,
    "end": 662.0,
    "text": "It is the seeking of precision."
  },
  {
    "start": 662.14,
    "end": 664.32,
    "text": "And what is the answer? What is it that I'm trying to do?"
  },
  {
    "start": 664.899,
    "end": 669.0,
    "text": "And it turns out that if you specify something badly in natural language,"
  },
  {
    "start": 669.0,
    "end": 671.14,
    "text": "it works out even worse than if you did it in code."
  },
  {
    "start": 671.52,
    "end": 674.62,
    "text": "And we already know, for example, we can actually take"
  },
  {
    "start": 675.86,
    "end": 679.7,
    "text": "inspiration from the most widely used programming paradigm on the planet,"
  },
  {
    "start": 680.46,
    "end": 681.0,
    "text": "the spreadsheet."
  },
  {
    "start": 681.48,
    "end": 681.86,
    "text": "What"
  },
  {
    "start": 681.86,
    "end": 685.2,
    "text": "we know from the spreadsheet is that most people who use a spreadsheet"
  },
  {
    "start": 685.66,
    "end": 687.2,
    "text": "do not have a software development background."
  },
  {
    "start": 687.64,
    "end": 690.36,
    "text": "We also know that most spreadsheets are unmaintainable,"
  },
  {
    "start": 691.32,
    "end": 692.72,
    "text": "incomprehensible, and buggy."
  },
  {
    "start": 693.12,
    "end": 696.42,
    "text": "If we are saying that the future of software development is"
  },
  {
    "start": 696.74,
    "end": 700.46,
    "text": "people who are not software experts doing this stuff,"
  },
  {
    "start": 700.56,
    "end": 703.98,
    "text": "your job is safe because that stuff will need to be understood and fixed."
  },
  {
    "start": 704.04,
    "end": 704.32,
    "text": "That's the"
  },
  {
    "start": 704.32,
    "end": 704.52,
    "text": "first"
  },
  {
    "start": 704.52,
    "end": 704.76,
    "text": "point."
  },
  {
    "start": 705.36,
    "end": 707.1,
    "text": "Spreadsheets didn't put anybody else out of a job."
  },
  {
    "start": 707.88,
    "end": 709.62,
    "text": "They actually create opportunities."
  },
  {
    "start": 710.62,
    "end": 714.64,
    "text": "The other thing is, when we look at AI assistance"
  },
  {
    "start": 714.64,
    "end": 715.1,
    "text": "of our"
  },
  {
    "start": 715.1,
    "end": 715.48,
    "text": "work,"
  },
  {
    "start": 715.78,
    "end": 717.42,
    "text": "and a prediction,"
  },
  {
    "start": 718.2,
    "end": 720.68,
    "text": "so in 2016, one of the things I said was,"
  },
  {
    "start": 720.88,
    "end": 724.98,
    "text": "one of the things we might see is the balance of our time shifts."
  },
  {
    "start": 725.52,
    "end": 727.26,
    "text": "But I said, and I made a prediction about it,"
  },
  {
    "start": 727.58,
    "end": 728.78,
    "text": "you're going to need to get good at testing."
  },
  {
    "start": 729.72,
    "end": 733.62,
    "text": "Because if you are just going to take the first thing that is generated,"
  },
  {
    "start": 734.44,
    "end": 736.0,
    "text": "and you don't know what it's supposed to do,"
  },
  {
    "start": 736.74,
    "end": 739.02,
    "text": "then guess what? You're going to end up being a maintenance program."
  },
  {
    "start": 739.1,
    "end": 741.6,
    "text": "I made that prediction again last year on Mastodon,"
  },
  {
    "start": 741.66,
    "end": 742.72,
    "text": "and I've now managed to retweet that."
  },
  {
    "start": 742.84,
    "end": 744.94,
    "text": "So it's now out there in the written form last April."
  },
  {
    "start": 745.62,
    "end": 749.3,
    "text": "And my observation was that most generated AI,"
  },
  {
    "start": 749.6,
    "end": 751.1,
    "text": "the way that programmers are going to use it,"
  },
  {
    "start": 751.12,
    "end": 753.02,
    "text": "we've seen how programmers use the tools they're given,"
  },
  {
    "start": 753.7,
    "end": 756.04,
    "text": "there is no evidence to suggest it's going to be for the better."
  },
  {
    "start": 756.26,
    "end": 758.92,
    "text": "The majority of developers will create legacy code."
  },
  {
    "start": 759.36,
    "end": 759.56,
    "text": "they"
  },
  {
    "start": 759.56,
    "end": 760.54,
    "text": "will now just do it faster."
  },
  {
    "start": 760.73,
    "end": 760.94,
    "text": ">> Yeah."
  },
  {
    "start": 761.8,
    "end": 764.68,
    "text": ">> So in other words, they're going to take away the fun bit."
  },
  {
    "start": 764.78,
    "end": 766.48,
    "text": "This is what I think is so ironic."
  },
  {
    "start": 767.0,
    "end": 770.38,
    "text": "Many developers are going to remove the bit of the job that they enjoy,"
  },
  {
    "start": 771.04,
    "end": 772.9,
    "text": "and they're going to create maintenance code,"
  },
  {
    "start": 773.0,
    "end": 775.7,
    "text": "and they are dealing with code that somebody else wrote."
  },
  {
    "start": 775.71,
    "end": 776.32,
    "text": "They don't understand"
  },
  {
    "start": 776.32,
    "end": 776.56,
    "text": "why."
  },
  {
    "start": 777.74,
    "end": 778.66,
    "text": "So in other words,"
  },
  {
    "start": 778.82,
    "end": 783.64,
    "text": "developers that go all in on generative AI to create their own code,"
  },
  {
    "start": 783.75,
    "end": 786.06,
    "text": "whether it's a copilot level or full-on chat GPT,"
  },
  {
    "start": 786.12,
    "end": 789.66,
    "text": "give me this, are going to discover that they are now maintenance programmers."
  },
  {
    "start": 789.94,
    "end": 791.82,
    "text": "They've taken all of the joy out of their job."
  },
  {
    "start": 791.88,
    "end": 793.8,
    "text": "Well done. Have they become more productive?"
  },
  {
    "start": 794.26,
    "end": 795.66,
    "text": "Oh, they'll be making more commits."
  },
  {
    "start": 796.42,
    "end": 797.74,
    "text": "But this is the interesting thing."
  },
  {
    "start": 797.78,
    "end": 801.86,
    "text": "A recent study has shown"
  },
  {
    "start": 802.2,
    "end": 806.22,
    "text": "that already there is a downward pressure on code quality on GitHub."
  },
  {
    "start": 807.18,
    "end": 808.46,
    "text": "The study was done by GitClear."
  },
  {
    "start": 808.46,
    "end": 811.12,
    "text": "They published it a couple of weeks ago, so January 2024."
  },
  {
    "start": 812.6,
    "end": 814.4,
    "text": "The quality is dropping already."
  },
  {
    "start": 814.6,
    "end": 817.36,
    "text": "You're ready. And that's what's happening."
  },
  {
    "start": 817.66,
    "end": 818.6,
    "text": "Code churn is increasing."
  },
  {
    "start": 819.06,
    "end": 820.92,
    "text": "What we're finding is there's more duplicate code,"
  },
  {
    "start": 820.96,
    "end": 822.16,
    "text": "more copy and paste code."
  },
  {
    "start": 822.56,
    "end": 822.72,
    "text": "The"
  },
  {
    "start": 822.72,
    "end": 824.48,
    "text": "quality of the code is already going down."
  },
  {
    "start": 824.58,
    "end": 826.36,
    "text": "And this is what I'd say is early days."
  },
  {
    "start": 826.9,
    "end": 829.46,
    "text": "But the code churn, the idea of having to go back"
  },
  {
    "start": 829.54,
    "end": 831.24,
    "text": "to something you just committed because it's wrong,"
  },
  {
    "start": 831.96,
    "end": 832.54,
    "text": "that's increased."
  },
  {
    "start": 833.419,
    "end": 835.14,
    "text": "And this is kind of stuff like,"
  },
  {
    "start": 835.44,
    "end": 836.56,
    "text": "if you'd asked me a year ago,"
  },
  {
    "start": 837.16,
    "end": 838.86,
    "text": "I would have told you this was going to happen"
  },
  {
    "start": 839.12,
    "end": 839.24,
    "text": "because"
  },
  {
    "start": 839.24,
    "end": 840.44,
    "text": "I know how people use tools."
  },
  {
    "start": 840.64,
    "end": 842.999,
    "text": "- So maybe we need more developer"
  },
  {
    "start": 843.0,
    "end": 843.46,
    "text": "or more"
  },
  {
    "start": 843.46,
    "end": 844.6,
    "text": "quality assurance."
  },
  {
    "start": 844.78,
    "end": 849.84,
    "text": ">> Yeah. So, the thing is that we need to understand what the relationship is."
  },
  {
    "start": 850.26,
    "end": 852.0,
    "text": "We also need to understand that for some developers,"
  },
  {
    "start": 852.6,
    "end": 853.8,
    "text": "they are going to get a huge advantage."
  },
  {
    "start": 854.26,
    "end": 856.32,
    "text": "I've already said, we know these developers."
  },
  {
    "start": 856.84,
    "end": 857.98,
    "text": "They are a particular percentage."
  },
  {
    "start": 858.16,
    "end": 859.08,
    "text": "When they are given a new tool,"
  },
  {
    "start": 859.16,
    "end": 860.86,
    "text": "they will get the best out of that tool."
  },
  {
    "start": 861.3,
    "end": 864.9,
    "text": "Then, most developers will be through no fault of their own in"
  },
  {
    "start": 864.92,
    "end": 869.64,
    "text": "an environment that doesn't encourage them to do the right thing, and they won't."
  },
  {
    "start": 870.14,
    "end": 871.3,
    "text": "It won't happen by magic."
  },
  {
    "start": 871.76,
    "end": 876.72,
    "text": "And so therefore, what you're going to find is increasing number of bugs,"
  },
  {
    "start": 877.22,
    "end": 879.16,
    "text": "increasing code churn, increasing outages,"
  },
  {
    "start": 879.99,
    "end": 882.12,
    "text": "therefore, more focus on the development,"
  },
  {
    "start": 882.29,
    "end": 884.42,
    "text": "but not necessarily learning the right lesson,"
  },
  {
    "start": 884.47,
    "end": 886.56,
    "text": "which is maybe we need to focus on quality."
  },
  {
    "start": 886.9,
    "end": 890.38,
    "text": "Maybe generating the wrong thing faster is not the end game."
  },
  {
    "start": 890.88,
    "end": 893.06,
    "text": "So, I think that by 2034,"
  },
  {
    "start": 894.02,
    "end": 895.82,
    "text": "some companies will have realized this"
  },
  {
    "start": 895.82,
    "end": 896.48,
    "text": "and will"
  },
  {
    "start": 896.48,
    "end": 897.16,
    "text": "be acting on it."
  },
  {
    "start": 897.52,
    "end": 899.0,
    "text": "Those companies will be doing very well."
  },
  {
    "start": 899.24,
    "end": 903.18,
    "text": "Most companies won't have that and will just be micromanaging people"
  },
  {
    "start": 903.18,
    "end": 903.98,
    "text": "or putting"
  },
  {
    "start": 903.98,
    "end": 904.36,
    "text": "a lot of"
  },
  {
    "start": 904.52,
    "end": 905.04,
    "text": "pressure on people."
  },
  {
    "start": 905.52,
    "end": 909.9,
    "text": "In the dangers, actually, software development in some companies may become very unpleasant."
  },
  {
    "start": 910.32,
    "end": 912.28,
    "text": "I don't think it's going to be a job that disappears."
  },
  {
    "start": 912.44,
    "end": 913.36,
    "text": "It may change."
  },
  {
    "start": 913.46,
    "end": 918.04,
    "text": "But I think unless we properly observe this, it's not going to be good."
  },
  {
    "start": 919.16,
    "end": 922.06,
    "text": "So yeah, software development is not going to disappear."
  },
  {
    "start": 922.68,
    "end": 922.78,
    "text": "I"
  },
  {
    "start": 922.78,
    "end": 927.559,
    "text": "think it's going to splinter and there will be a real difference between people who work"
  },
  {
    "start": 927.56,
    "end": 933.02,
    "text": "in the quality environments, you know, understanding what it is that they're getting from any tool,"
  },
  {
    "start": 933.14,
    "end": 935.0,
    "text": "which has always been the challenge."
  },
  {
    "start": 935.68,
    "end": 939.88,
    "text": "And then there are people who are going to be, you know, as it were puppets of the tool"
  },
  {
    "start": 940.12,
    "end": 941.8,
    "text": "and very poor management processes."
  },
  {
    "start": 942.0,
    "end": 943.44,
    "text": "So that's my personal prediction."
  },
  {
    "start": 944.32,
    "end": 950.159,
    "text": "I think we have to mention that the software industry and the IT industry is an industry"
  },
  {
    "start": 950.16,
    "end": 960.32,
    "text": "which has reached a part they always creating new jobs and new needs of their job."
  },
  {
    "start": 961.18,
    "end": 963.24,
    "text": "And I think this won't stop in the future."
  },
  {
    "start": 963.46,
    "end": 963.8,
    "text": "So yeah,"
  },
  {
    "start": 964.06,
    "end": 970.28,
    "text": "the software industry will still get needs the impact and get new people there"
  },
  {
    "start": 970.28,
    "end": 971.14,
    "text": "to do this stuff."
  },
  {
    "start": 971.2,
    "end": 971.62,
    "text": "The world,"
  },
  {
    "start": 971.74,
    "end": 974.98,
    "text": "the world runs on software, that is not going to that's not going anywhere."
  },
  {
    "start": 975.04,
    "end": 980.14,
    "text": "And the idea, I'm not gonna say it's never going to be a case where somebody is not a"
  },
  {
    "start": 980.14,
    "end": 981.86,
    "text": "able to articulate a business need"
  },
  {
    "start": 981.86,
    "end": 983.14,
    "text": "and"
  },
  {
    "start": 983.14,
    "end": 986.9,
    "text": "then have a meaningful interaction with something"
  },
  {
    "start": 987.0,
    "end": 987.46,
    "text": "that's AI."
  },
  {
    "start": 987.76,
    "end": 989.22,
    "text": "But that's not the AI we have now."
  },
  {
    "start": 989.84,
    "end": 994.94,
    "text": "That is at least a decade off before people start doing that because that's not where"
  },
  {
    "start": 995.0,
    "end": 996.94,
    "text": "the money is, that's not where the conversation is."
  },
  {
    "start": 997.4,
    "end": 1000.78,
    "text": "It's certainly a possibility, but we're a long way from that."
  },
  {
    "start": 1000.94,
    "end": 1001.68,
    "text": "And the need"
  },
  {
    "start": 1001.68,
    "end": 1003.04,
    "text": "for software is not going down."
  },
  {
    "start": 1003.36,
    "end": 1006.58,
    "text": "So yeah, I think that that is relatively safe."
  },
  {
    "start": 1007.82,
    "end": 1011.7,
    "text": "What I've been telling people is, you know, your skills at being precise, your skills"
  },
  {
    "start": 1011.74,
    "end": 1017.2,
    "text": "at being able to test, and your skills at being able to ask the right questions."
  },
  {
    "start": 1017.42,
    "end": 1018.94,
    "text": "What is it we're actually trying to do here?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1019.34,
    "end": 1020.4,
    "text": "Those have always been"
  },
  {
    "start": 1020.4,
    "end": 1020.64,
    "text": "there."
  },
  {
    "start": 1021.2,
    "end": 1024.42,
    "text": "But now we're going to realize that they come up, they're much more obviously the stars"
  },
  {
    "start": 1024.459,
    "end": 1024.9,
    "text": "of the show."
  },
  {
    "start": 1025.6,
    "end": 1025.72,
    "text": "And"
  },
  {
    "start": 1025.72,
    "end": 1028.319,
    "text": "that's where your skills are."
  },
  {
    "start": 1028.76,
    "end": 1033.54,
    "text": "And honestly, knowing how to work with a programming language or programming languages is still"
  },
  {
    "start": 1033.54,
    "end": 1037.14,
    "text": "absolutely relevant because those are very different to working with natural language."
  },
  {
    "start": 1038.839,
    "end": 1045.24,
    "text": "And that's the bridge that we've always crossed, the ability to work with the kind of the soft,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1045.339,
    "end": 1048.88,
    "text": "flexible space of humans and business and then say, \"And this is what we"
  },
  {
    "start": 1048.88,
    "end": 1049.82,
    "text": "need.\""
  },
  {
    "start": 1049.82,
    "end": 1055.26,
    "text": "And to do so in a concept and notation that is utterly precise and fixed and be able to"
  },
  {
    "start": 1055.26,
    "end": 1056.9,
    "text": "say, \"Yeah, that's exactly what we meant.\""
  },
  {
    "start": 1056.9,
    "end": 1059.02,
    "text": "And importantly, we get the same result every time."
  },
  {
    "start": 1059.12,
    "end": 1060.08,
    "text": "That's really important."
  },
  {
    "start": 1060.34,
    "end": 1062.0,
    "text": "And I can -- and importantly, it's empirical."
  },
  {
    "start": 1062.1,
    "end": 1062.96,
    "text": "I can show you that."
  },
  {
    "start": 1063.18,
    "end": 1063.82,
    "text": "Here's the tests."
  },
  {
    "start": 1064.28,
    "end": 1066.42,
    "text": "And here's the data that we see from the runtime."
  },
  {
    "start": 1067.38,
    "end": 1069.68,
    "text": "All of those things, they're not going anywhere."
  },
  {
    "start": 1069.87,
    "end": 1070.56,
    "text": "And if anything,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1070.88,
    "end": 1074.32,
    "text": "those are the ones that are going to differentiate individual developers"
  },
  {
    "start": 1074.4,
    "end": 1076.14,
    "text": "in terms of skill and also companies."
  },
  {
    "start": 1076.74,
    "end": 1077.94,
    "text": "That's where the competition is."
  },
  {
    "start": 1078.08,
    "end": 1078.18,
    "text": "Yeah."
  },
  {
    "start": 1078.34,
    "end": 1078.46,
    "text": "Yeah."
  },
  {
    "start": 1079.0,
    "end": 1083.62,
    "text": "What do you think about collaboration in the teams and in the organization?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1083.65,
    "end": 1089.12,
    "text": "So we are struggling with with H.I. doing stuff together, interdisciplinary teams."
  },
  {
    "start": 1089.12,
    "end": 1092.16,
    "text": "And so it works sometimes, but not often."
  },
  {
    "start": 1092.28,
    "end": 1094.94,
    "text": "What do you think, where will the trend go on here?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1096.08,
    "end": 1101.08,
    "text": "I think that this is an interesting one because we have a very much a mix."
  },
  {
    "start": 1101.8,
    "end": 1108.38,
    "text": "And this is something that we have some companies and some organizations go in one direction"
  },
  {
    "start": 1108.4,
    "end": 1110.26,
    "text": "at the same time as other companies going in other directions."
  },
  {
    "start": 1110.42,
    "end": 1117.72,
    "text": "So if you go back many decades, software development was done inside of the companies that were"
  },
  {
    "start": 1117.78,
    "end": 1118.38,
    "text": "using the software."
  },
  {
    "start": 1118.72,
    "end": 1120.28,
    "text": "Everything was bespoke software."
  },
  {
    "start": 1121.74,
    "end": 1127.84,
    "text": "And the distance between the business users and the developers was naturally short because"
  },
  {
    "start": 1127.9,
    "end": 1130.58,
    "text": "you were in the company where you were actually developing the software for."
  },
  {
    "start": 1131.28,
    "end": 1134.12,
    "text": "Of course, it wasn't the kind of software that we have these days in terms of scope,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1134.12,
    "end": 1135.64,
    "text": "but it gives us one baseline."
  },
  {
    "start": 1136.08,
    "end": 1141.6,
    "text": "But in the same era, we also had large companies, institutional style companies that definitely"
  },
  {
    "start": 1141.72,
    "end": 1142.42,
    "text": "kept the software."
  },
  {
    "start": 1142.84,
    "end": 1148.22,
    "text": "They developed software for other people, whether it was governments or whatever at"
  },
  {
    "start": 1148.3,
    "end": 1148.48,
    "text": "scale."
  },
  {
    "start": 1148.88,
    "end": 1149.46,
    "text": "And guess what?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1150.18,
    "end": 1152.82,
    "text": "still have that, but we also have a lot of spaces in between."
  },
  {
    "start": 1153.28,
    "end": 1153.66,
    "text": "So what"
  },
  {
    "start": 1153.66,
    "end": 1157.02,
    "text": "we find is that companies,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1157.3,
    "end": 1158.3,
    "text": "there's the natural agility."
  },
  {
    "start": 1158.53,
    "end": 1159.64,
    "text": "If you're in a small company,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1159.92,
    "end": 1161.76,
    "text": "there's a natural agility you just get"
  },
  {
    "start": 1161.9,
    "end": 1162.86,
    "text": "by being in a small company."
  },
  {
    "start": 1163.0,
    "end": 1163.08,
    "text": "- Yeah."
  },
  {
    "start": 1164.2,
    "end": 1167.34,
    "text": "- If you are in a company where you are providing software"
  },
  {
    "start": 1167.37,
    "end": 1168.62,
    "text": "to people in that company,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1169.0,
    "end": 1171.14,
    "text": "you have an advantage over people"
  },
  {
    "start": 1171.26,
    "end": 1173.4,
    "text": "who have an organizational boundary."
  },
  {
    "start": 1173.9,
    "end": 1175.16,
    "text": "But also we outsource more,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1175.26,
    "end": 1176.66,
    "text": "so we introduce more organizational"
  },
  {
    "start": 1176.66,
    "end": 1177.1,
    "text": "boundaries,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1177.49,
    "end": 1179.28,
    "text": "and therefore we need to get over that."
  },
  {
    "start": 1179.3,
    "end": 1183.68,
    "text": "So, it feels like there's a constant churn and renewal"
  },
  {
    "start": 1183.84,
    "end": 1187.1,
    "text": "that some companies are constantly being created"
  },
  {
    "start": 1187.4,
    "end": 1190.54,
    "text": "to serve the needs, the software needs of other organizations,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1190.92,
    "end": 1191.54,
    "text": "but they're outside."
  },
  {
    "start": 1192.06,
    "end": 1193.7,
    "text": "But agility is about getting as close,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1193.78,
    "end": 1197.26,
    "text": "it's about reducing the distance and communication distance."
  },
  {
    "start": 1198.14,
    "end": 1200.06,
    "text": "So, we both increase and reduce it"
  },
  {
    "start": 1200.18,
    "end": 1201.5,
    "text": "or find the need to reduce it."
  },
  {
    "start": 1201.56,
    "end": 1204.78,
    "text": "So, I don't think that's going to change in that sense."
  },
  {
    "start": 1204.82,
    "end": 1204.92,
    "text": "I"
  },
  {
    "start": 1204.92,
    "end": 1205.26,
    "text": "think we"
  },
  {
    "start": 1205.26,
    "end": 1206.74,
    "text": "are constantly doing that,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1206.8,
    "end": 1209.28,
    "text": "but I think we have many more smaller companies"
  },
  {
    "start": 1209.28,
    "end": 1212.08,
    "text": "perhaps a faster turnover rate of some companies."
  },
  {
    "start": 1212.91,
    "end": 1214.52,
    "text": "But we also find companies that are large,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1214.55,
    "end": 1216.14,
    "text": "and for them, agility means,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1216.62,
    "end": 1217.86,
    "text": "\"Oh, we used to be four layers of"
  },
  {
    "start": 1217.98,
    "end": 1219.0,
    "text": "management before you could talk to somebody."
  },
  {
    "start": 1219.08,
    "end": 1220.5,
    "text": "Now, we're three, and now we're agile.\""
  },
  {
    "start": 1220.5,
    "end": 1223.06,
    "text": "It's just like, \"Okay, you guys have still got a long way to go.\""
  },
  {
    "start": 1223.06,
    "end": 1226.5,
    "text": "But I think that pressure is always there."
  },
  {
    "start": 1226.76,
    "end": 1229.52,
    "text": "I think that what we have seen in the last decade,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1229.8,
    "end": 1232.88,
    "text": "particularly as more companies find themselves pulled"
  },
  {
    "start": 1233.08,
    "end": 1237.08,
    "text": "into much more continuous deployment situation,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1237.6,
    "end": 1242.5,
    "text": "is that the downside of that is a lot more pressure individually."
  },
  {
    "start": 1242.68,
    "end": 1243.72,
    "text": "It's the kind of pressure I was talking"
  },
  {
    "start": 1243.72,
    "end": 1244.14,
    "text": "about earlier"
  },
  {
    "start": 1244.14,
    "end": 1244.32,
    "text": "on,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1244.4,
    "end": 1245.66,
    "text": "that you end up being micromanaged."
  },
  {
    "start": 1245.8,
    "end": 1247.58,
    "text": "Now, it used to be micromanaged on a monthly basis."
  },
  {
    "start": 1247.76,
    "end": 1248.86,
    "text": "Now, it's on a daily basis."
  },
  {
    "start": 1249.4,
    "end": 1252.32,
    "text": "And that can, if not understood,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1253.0,
    "end": 1254.76,
    "text": "as a properly collaborative environment,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1254.9,
    "end": 1257.82,
    "text": "that can actually make for a very unpleasant feeling."
  },
  {
    "start": 1257.9,
    "end": 1261.54,
    "text": "And you're constantly just bombarded with deadlines."
  },
  {
    "start": 1262.56,
    "end": 1264.66,
    "text": "But at the same time, I also have some optimism here"
  },
  {
    "start": 1264.66,
    "end": 1269.1,
    "text": "that I think that when I look at other industries and other disciplines,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1269.58,
    "end": 1271.4,
    "text": "I think in software, we talk about people issues"
  },
  {
    "start": 1271.68,
    "end": 1273.7,
    "text": "a lot more than people in other disciplines."
  },
  {
    "start": 1274.12,
    "end": 1276.98,
    "text": "I think, you know, although we have this reputation,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1277.48,
    "end": 1280.56,
    "text": "and I think it's a reputation that sometimes other people hold of us,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1280.6,
    "end": 1282.64,
    "text": "but we also hold it of ourselves. I don't think it's true."
  },
  {
    "start": 1282.8,
    "end": 1284.8,
    "text": "I think we spend a lot of time talking about the people stuff,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1285.3,
    "end": 1289.26,
    "text": "more so than many other industries, particularly technical ones."
  },
  {
    "start": 1289.5,
    "end": 1291.26,
    "text": "We tend to value those."
  },
  {
    "start": 1291.26,
    "end": 1295.22,
    "text": "We see it as a problem or a systems issue to be understood."
  },
  {
    "start": 1296.34,
    "end": 1298.04,
    "text": "And you find that, you know,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1298.58,
    "end": 1300.68,
    "text": "the fact that business movements now come out of software"
  },
  {
    "start": 1300.74,
    "end": 1303.7,
    "text": "rather than software being the consumer of business movements,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1303.78,
    "end": 1308.22,
    "text": "it's now the producer of ideas that transform other companies"
  },
  {
    "start": 1308.22,
    "end": 1310.14,
    "text": "that don't consider themselves to be software companies."
  },
  {
    "start": 1310.26,
    "end": 1313.46,
    "text": "You know, you go out there and people are quite happily using the term"
  },
  {
    "start": 1314.54,
    "end": 1317.18,
    "text": "agile in the broader business context"
  },
  {
    "start": 1317.18,
    "end": 1322.02,
    "text": "where it simply didn't have any meaning or attraction many years ago."
  },
  {
    "start": 1322.22,
    "end": 1322.54,
    "text": "And that"
  },
  {
    "start": 1322.54,
    "end": 1324.56,
    "text": "we see these ideas going out."
  },
  {
    "start": 1324.66,
    "end": 1326.84,
    "text": "So I think that we're actually in a very good position."
  },
  {
    "start": 1327.34,
    "end": 1327.46,
    "text": "So I"
  },
  {
    "start": 1327.46,
    "end": 1328.62,
    "text": "have a little bit of optimism there."
  },
  {
    "start": 1328.62,
    "end": 1332.52,
    "text": "I don't think, you know, I don't think it's all suddenly going to change overnight."
  },
  {
    "start": 1332.74,
    "end": 1336.12,
    "text": "But I have some optimism that I think that we focus on people issues"
  },
  {
    "start": 1336.22,
    "end": 1337.9,
    "text": "probably a lot more than a lot of industries do."
  },
  {
    "start": 1337.96,
    "end": 1338.12,
    "text": "Yeah,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1338.28,
    "end": 1339.6,
    "text": "yeah, yeah. Yeah. Thank you."
  },
  {
    "start": 1339.64,
    "end": 1341.94,
    "text": "It's a great, great thought on this topic."
  },
  {
    "start": 1342.62,
    "end": 1349.74,
    "text": "So what do you would you recommend for a QA tester, software engineer to learn and to"
  },
  {
    "start": 1349.82,
    "end": 1350.94,
    "text": "prepare for this future?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1352.7,
    "end": 1358.92,
    "text": "So I think it's a case of that whenever I've been asked this question, I think my answer"
  },
  {
    "start": 1358.96,
    "end": 1365.48,
    "text": "is generally always had the same core and then the dressing is slightly different."
  },
  {
    "start": 1365.67,
    "end": 1369.54,
    "text": "So the same so let me focus on what is the same core, the foundations."
  },
  {
    "start": 1370.3,
    "end": 1375.4,
    "text": "There are things that are much slower moving, the foundations, the principles, the deeper"
  },
  {
    "start": 1375.56,
    "end": 1380.94,
    "text": "skills, the idea that what is it that we want from this software?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1381.3,
    "end": 1381.62,
    "text": "And that's"
  },
  {
    "start": 1381.62,
    "end": 1384.96,
    "text": "a high-level question that we frame in terms of requirements."
  },
  {
    "start": 1385.36,
    "end": 1389.78,
    "text": "But to understand how to test something is to understand what it should be doing in the"
  },
  {
    "start": 1389.94,
    "end": 1390.22,
    "text": "first place."
  },
  {
    "start": 1390.28,
    "end": 1391.9,
    "text": "There's a cycle between these."
  },
  {
    "start": 1391.94,
    "end": 1393.08,
    "text": "There's a natural cycle."
  },
  {
    "start": 1394.06,
    "end": 1394.8,
    "text": "Get good at that."
  },
  {
    "start": 1395.5,
    "end": 1400.94,
    "text": "good at describing and describing both in natural language but also in code."
  },
  {
    "start": 1401.32,
    "end": 1402.42,
    "text": "What does that look like?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1402.76,
    "end": 1403.8,
    "text": "What does the right thing look like?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1403.88,
    "end": 1405.12,
    "text": "What does the wrong thing look like?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1406.4,
    "end": 1409.16,
    "text": "Programming languages, they're not really going anywhere."
  },
  {
    "start": 1409.82,
    "end": 1412.9,
    "text": "They are going to continue very much along the trends that we have seen for the last"
  },
  {
    "start": 1412.96,
    "end": 1414.28,
    "text": "decade, two decades, and so on."
  },
  {
    "start": 1414.34,
    "end": 1418.06,
    "text": "There's minor shifts every now and then, but nothing huge."
  },
  {
    "start": 1419.9,
    "end": 1424.4,
    "text": "So you're okay with whatever you're working on, but keep a look."
  },
  {
    "start": 1424.54,
    "end": 1428.26,
    "text": "If you're using one of the top 10 languages, well done, keep using it."
  },
  {
    "start": 1428.42,
    "end": 1430.02,
    "text": "But look at what's in the next top 10."
  },
  {
    "start": 1430.24,
    "end": 1430.48,
    "text": "Look"
  },
  {
    "start": 1430.48,
    "end": 1437.26,
    "text": "to the rest of the top 20 because that may be where the language that will be your"
  },
  {
    "start": 1437.32,
    "end": 1438.66,
    "text": "primary language is coming from."
  },
  {
    "start": 1439.58,
    "end": 1443.92,
    "text": "The language that you'll be using in 10 years' time probably has, you know, I put very good"
  },
  {
    "start": 1443.98,
    "end": 1448.26,
    "text": "money that it has already been invented and already has some kind of presence if not in"
  },
  {
    "start": 1448.26,
    "end": 1449.5,
    "text": "the top 20, the top 50."
  },
  {
    "start": 1451.9,
    "end": 1454.28,
    "text": "But also have that idea that you're not just stuck with one language."
  },
  {
    "start": 1454.42,
    "end": 1460.26,
    "text": "people characterize as, \"I am a Java programmer. I am a C# programmer.\" Take a step outside"
  },
  {
    "start": 1460.34,
    "end": 1463.96,
    "text": "that, say, \"Yeah, that's the language I'm using this year.\" But look around, you're"
  },
  {
    "start": 1463.96,
    "end": 1470.26,
    "text": "obviously using lots of other languages. Give those first-class status as well. Yeah, I"
  },
  {
    "start": 1470.26,
    "end": 1476.3,
    "text": "mean, that's JavaScript as well. So, give them first-class status. So, those core skills"
  },
  {
    "start": 1476.4,
    "end": 1476.64,
    "text": "there."
  },
  {
    "start": 1478.02,
    "end": 1482.939,
    "text": "Understand that the tooling that you're using today is probably -- the tools move surprisingly"
  },
  {
    "start": 1482.94,
    "end": 1491.02,
    "text": "fast in some cases. Some are very slow, some are very fast. If you go back 10 years, Kubernetes,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1491.4,
    "end": 1491.98,
    "text": "people will be like,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1492.1,
    "end": 1494.04,
    "text": "\"What?\" But"
  },
  {
    "start": 1494.04,
    "end": 1497.1,
    "text": "at the same time, if you're in the Java space, hey, guess"
  },
  {
    "start": 1497.16,
    "end": 1501.98,
    "text": "what? JUnit was developed in the 20th century. So, some things don't change. But there are"
  },
  {
    "start": 1502.22,
    "end": 1505.36,
    "text": "the idea that many of the tools you're looking at, they're going to improve, they're going"
  },
  {
    "start": 1505.36,
    "end": 1510.339,
    "text": "to change. And you move job, you may discover there's a different tool ecosystem that has"
  },
  {
    "start": 1510.34,
    "end": 1515.34,
    "text": "popular where you are. Look to open source. Open source is where a lot of these ideas"
  },
  {
    "start": 1515.68,
    "end": 1520.0,
    "text": "are coming from. So, I generally tell people, you know, keep your feet on the ground."
  },
  {
    "start": 1520.2,
    "end": 1520.34,
    "text": "Look"
  },
  {
    "start": 1520.36,
    "end": 1520.86,
    "text": "for the foundations."
  },
  {
    "start": 1521.0,
    "end": 1523.56,
    "text": "What are the core principles? What are the good ideas in software development"
  },
  {
    "start": 1523.62,
    "end": 1529.16,
    "text": "that have stood the test of time? And then what are those skills as related to me? And"
  },
  {
    "start": 1529.18,
    "end": 1532.56,
    "text": "then what are the exciting new bits that I can hold on to? And where do I find them?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1533.14,
    "end": 1533.28,
    "text": "That"
  },
  {
    "start": 1533.28,
    "end": 1534.02,
    "text": "would be my general"
  },
  {
    "start": 1534.02,
    "end": 1534.48,
    "text": "advice."
  },
  {
    "start": 1534.58,
    "end": 1535.44,
    "text": "It's a balance."
  },
  {
    "start": 1536.02,
    "end": 1538.14,
    "text": "Yeah, thank you very much for this tip."
  },
  {
    "start": 1538.2,
    "end": 1543.1,
    "text": "I think the community will join it and then go on to it."
  },
  {
    "start": 1543.96,
    "end": 1546.18,
    "text": "Yeah, so we are already done with the time."
  },
  {
    "start": 1546.28,
    "end": 1550.44,
    "text": "So, but I thank you very much for this insights,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1550.52,
    "end": 1551.78,
    "text": "for your thoughts about the future."
  },
  {
    "start": 1552.0,
    "end": 1554.5,
    "text": "It's, I'm very satisfied now."
  },
  {
    "start": 1555.12,
    "end": 1557.68,
    "text": "I have some things about, I think about"
  },
  {
    "start": 1557.68,
    "end": 1558.5,
    "text": "the next days"
  },
  {
    "start": 1558.6,
    "end": 1560.9,
    "text": "and I wish you a very good conference here"
  },
  {
    "start": 1561.12,
    "end": 1563.52,
    "text": "and good talks and a good time here."
  },
  {
    "start": 1563.81,
    "end": 1564.08,
    "text": "Thank you."
  },
  {
    "start": 1564.08,
    "end": 1564.5,
    "text": "Thank you very much."
  },
  {
    "start": 1593.919,
    "end": 1595.32,
    "text": "(orchestral music)"
  }
]