[
  {
    "start": 0.06,
    "end": 7.7,
    "text": "The reality is that we are under this delusion, building more data centers and paying for AI."
  },
  {
    "start": 8.66,
    "end": 15.82,
    "text": "And spending on growing scale is the only solution."
  },
  {
    "start": 17.3,
    "end": 24.18,
    "text": "It's going to create economic growth and it will create future utopia."
  },
  {
    "start": 25.04,
    "end": 29.38,
    "text": "What you're finding in underlying economics of that?"
  },
  {
    "start": 29.44,
    "end": 30.34,
    "text": "It's not"
  },
  {
    "start": 30.44,
    "end": 31.08,
    "text": "a reality."
  },
  {
    "start": 33.64,
    "end": 34.38,
    "text": "Hello, hello!"
  },
  {
    "start": 34.78,
    "end": 37.16,
    "text": "Welcome to the Big Bang Tech Report."
  },
  {
    "start": 38.34,
    "end": 42.38,
    "text": "Today we discuss robots cheaper AI and new devices."
  },
  {
    "start": 43.02,
    "end": 49.32,
    "text": "But one question stands above everything Is a major AI crash coming soon?"
  },
  {
    "start": 50.0,
    "end": 54.14,
    "text": "Once again is a Major AI Crash Coming Soon?"
  },
  {
    "start": 55.28,
    "end": 58.86,
    "text": "My guests are Alvin von Greiland and Alvin Let us begin."
  },
  {
    "start": 59.9,
    "end": 61.7,
    "text": "Yeah, it's good to see you again."
  },
  {
    "start": 62.42,
    "end": 65.78,
    "text": "We've been a couple weeks apart so I had lots of talk about."
  },
  {
    "start": 66.94,
    "end": 68.04,
    "text": "yeah It's true."
  },
  {
    "start": 68.58,
    "end": 74.22,
    "text": "So robots are coming is first headline and Robots our learning much faster today."
  },
  {
    "start": 74.9,
    "end": 81.98,
    "text": "videos show them boxing dancing jumping And but great videos do not prove business model."
  },
  {
    "start": 82.44,
    "end": 84.86,
    "text": "question for you Are humanites?"
  },
  {
    "start": 84.96,
    "end": 86.84,
    "text": "Robots already real business?"
  },
  {
    "start": 89.46,
    "end": 91.12,
    "text": "Sadly to say Not really."
  },
  {
    "start": 92.7,
    "end": 104.88,
    "text": "They make for very good demos, they make for nice highlight reels but if you look at the unit numbers that are being sold today and I think last year was in the tens of thousands globally right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 105.48,
    "end": 115.62,
    "text": "So when a device is into tens of thousand units across over one hundred companies it's not real business."
  },
  {
    "start": 115.72,
    "end": 130.699,
    "text": "yet Now I think it will be in a few years, but the other thing is A lot of these robots demos that you see are ones That look completely humanoid as and they have arms And legs any walk like humans."
  },
  {
    "start": 131.8,
    "end": 144.98,
    "text": "I actually believe that longer term Even human or robots at our arms and legs on arms and heads On top They probably we'll have wheels Or some other type Of platform just because The energy takes to balance."
  },
  {
    "start": 145.26,
    "end": 152.16,
    "text": "one of These Robots is very wasteful when most of the time they're probably just standing someplace."
  },
  {
    "start": 153.18,
    "end": 161.36,
    "text": "And if you are working in a factory, it's also usually fixed location so there may be half body and don't even need legs."
  },
  {
    "start": 162.02,
    "end": 167.02,
    "text": "So I think we watch too much sci-fi movies."
  },
  {
    "start": 169.12,
    "end": 174.4,
    "text": "We want to embody full human bodies onto these robots."
  },
  {
    "start": 176.54,
    "end": 182.3,
    "text": "We do not watch so much sci-fi videos, we have a look at YouTube and there you see Unitree."
  },
  {
    "start": 182.56,
    "end": 187.7,
    "text": "And all this big effect of the producers how they publish videos?"
  },
  {
    "start": 187.98,
    "end": 189.24,
    "text": "They are really impressing!"
  },
  {
    "start": 190.14,
    "end": 191.32,
    "text": "I've met Xingxin Wang."
  },
  {
    "start": 191.5,
    "end": 195.12,
    "text": "he is CEO of Unitrie in China."
  },
  {
    "start": 195.88,
    "end": 202.3,
    "text": "He told us that these robots will do eighty percent off work we give to them."
  },
  {
    "start": 203.1,
    "end": 204.28,
    "text": "Do you believe on it ?"
  },
  {
    "start": 205.18,
    "end": 210.02,
    "text": "I think in certain constrained environments that's possible, right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 210.16,
    "end": 218.4,
    "text": "So if you're a factory and your are particular warehouse some something aspects but having robots go to your home within three years."
  },
  {
    "start": 218.58,
    "end": 224.36,
    "text": "And be able to essentially help make breakfast do your laundry."
  },
  {
    "start": 225.5,
    "end": 227.74,
    "text": "That is going take time."
  },
  {
    "start": 227.8,
    "end": 233.66,
    "text": "In fact most of the demos are essentially prescripted demos."
  },
  {
    "start": 234.32,
    "end": 241.6,
    "text": "They program across all the dancing robots or things, and a lot of ones that you see actually hand-controlled robots there."
  },
  {
    "start": 241.68,
    "end": 252.3,
    "text": "even today most robots out they're being controlled by more control in an operator's hands like those running on marathons."
  },
  {
    "start": 252.84,
    "end": 256.519,
    "text": "There was somebody behind them with controller pushing buttons."
  },
  {
    "start": 259.399,
    "end": 265.84,
    "text": "In addition, we need to kind of separate the moving of robots and jumping or running from manipulation."
  },
  {
    "start": 266.18,
    "end": 274.64,
    "text": "Manipulation is actually very difficult right now that hands on these robots and the dexterity are really not there yet."
  },
  {
    "start": 274.68,
    "end": 281.4,
    "text": "There's some prototype hands which seem to work quite well but they're again at a very early stage."
  },
  {
    "start": 282.04,
    "end": 290.34,
    "text": "You then have to train them For the real world whether you're, you know holding a baby or your holding A box."
  },
  {
    "start": 290.82,
    "end": 300.1,
    "text": "You're going to hold it differently and whether you are holding you know a soft body versus hard-body Versus thread These type of differences."
  },
  {
    "start": 301.28,
    "end": 308.5,
    "text": "We our current systems for managing these robots aren't able to accommodate The high variance that happens in the real World."
  },
  {
    "start": 308.84,
    "end": 318.52,
    "text": "But if you're in a factory and there's limited type of things that move by, I think those types can be done."
  },
  {
    "start": 319.46,
    "end": 321.32,
    "text": "Yeah, it's a little bit like Hollywood."
  },
  {
    "start": 321.72,
    "end": 327.28,
    "text": "They are selling dreams and we love these dreams And its scaring but interesting."
  },
  {
    "start": 328.22,
    "end": 328.74,
    "text": "We will see."
  },
  {
    "start": 328.94,
    "end": 329.56,
    "text": "let us have look."
  },
  {
    "start": 329.98,
    "end": 333.62,
    "text": "But our next headline is AI without the cloud."
  },
  {
    "start": 333.8,
    "end": 335.58,
    "text": "That something very big."
  },
  {
    "start": 336.0,
    "end": 341.16,
    "text": "Powerful AI until now still needs large data centers All over world."
  },
  {
    "start": 341.28,
    "end": 342.06,
    "text": "The big companies."
  },
  {
    "start": 342.1,
    "end": 347.12,
    "text": "they're building data centers But models becoming smaller & more efficient."
  },
  {
    "start": 347.8,
    "end": 351.28,
    "text": "Top models may soon run directly on Laptos."
  },
  {
    "start": 351.46,
    "end": 358.06,
    "text": "I think we have mentioned it several times in our show, and what does local AI mean for open AI?"
  },
  {
    "start": 358.88,
    "end": 359.42,
    "text": "And the others..."
  },
  {
    "start": 359.52,
    "end": 360.08,
    "text": "Yeah!"
  },
  {
    "start": 360.64,
    "end": 361.72,
    "text": "This is actually a big question."
  },
  {
    "start": 361.76,
    "end": 368.6,
    "text": "In fact about one week ago there was chart that came out saying looking at how quickly these models are becoming smaller and smaller."
  },
  {
    "start": 369.18,
    "end": 384.88,
    "text": "It used to take three or four years from something like a data center or on your phone, and the prediction is that a mythos-level AI will be something that can run on your laptop within one and half years."
  },
  {
    "start": 385.76,
    "end": 394.54,
    "text": "So essentially right now at the top of the line there are secrets most people cannot even get access to."
  },
  {
    "start": 397.32,
    "end": 398.36,
    "text": "That's really the case."
  },
  {
    "start": 399.38,
    "end": 413.88,
    "text": "I think it's relatively bare scenario for for the standalone AI labs, because the reality is that most humans probably don't even need mythos-level AI."
  },
  {
    "start": 415.22,
    "end": 425.9,
    "text": "If you had GPT IV level AI, personal use, if you're summarizing emails or writing a document."
  },
  {
    "start": 426.18,
    "end": 429.48,
    "text": "Those type of level there is already good enough."
  },
  {
    "start": 430.7,
    "end": 438.76,
    "text": "so when something as good as Mythos becomes available on your laptop or phone the need to go out into cloud become less and less."
  },
  {
    "start": 439.68,
    "end": 442.8,
    "text": "that also means with open source models."
  },
  {
    "start": 444.54,
    "end": 448.46,
    "text": "these models can be downloaded for free personal device."
  },
  {
    "start": 448.88,
    "end": 453.36,
    "text": "For a lot of people that's really important because it allows them to maintain privacy, right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 453.46,
    "end": 473.06,
    "text": "I don't need a week and half ago that he thinks these companies are stealing your alpha, stealing the secrets of your company."
  },
  {
    "start": 473.5,
    "end": 476.36,
    "text": "And duplicating will duplicate your company right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 476.4,
    "end": 490.92,
    "text": "So whether from a personal basis or from a company basis Or even from national basis sovereign AI issues I think if there's an option to have something you can control with full access of information it is probably positive thing."
  },
  {
    "start": 491.76,
    "end": 493.78,
    "text": "But what does this mean for cloud industry?"
  },
  {
    "start": 496.4,
    "end": 502.78,
    "text": "So this kind of goes to the article I just wrote recently about how potential comes in crash."
  },
  {
    "start": 503.46,
    "end": 513.26,
    "text": "But what it shows is that we probably are overbuilding on hardware data centers, most of them being built today."
  },
  {
    "start": 514.62,
    "end": 517.44,
    "text": "Well, half of them are being delayed right now for multiple reasons."
  },
  {
    "start": 517.84,
    "end": 525.38,
    "text": "But it's likely that most those have will never get done and even the ones that are being built may or may not get then at least in a timeframe."
  },
  {
    "start": 525.6,
    "end": 545.5,
    "text": "they've been forecasting And companies who're spending all their money to build these data centers Will probably become going into some type financial challenge in the near term, so or midterm."
  },
  {
    "start": 545.98,
    "end": 550.44,
    "text": "But is there a development that AI's becoming cheaper and cheaper?"
  },
  {
    "start": 550.5,
    "end": 551.96,
    "text": "And what does it mean for the labs?"
  },
  {
    "start": 552.94,
    "end": 560.5,
    "text": "Yeah So if you look at this same intelligence level The AIs actually are cheaper at ten to forty X per year."
  },
  {
    "start": 560.88,
    "end": 564.28,
    "text": "I'm not saying the frontier level because the frontier keeps getting smarter."
  },
  {
    "start": 564.34,
    "end": 570.26,
    "text": "but If your buying AI level of a year ago is probably ten to forty times cheaper."
  },
  {
    "start": 571.06,
    "end": 581.48,
    "text": "So from that perspective, essentially you know good enough AI will be very affordable if not free within the next few years... ...essentially because electricity."
  },
  {
    "start": 582.24,
    "end": 586.08,
    "text": "But what does it mean for this firetropic and CHETGBT?"
  },
  {
    "start": 586.58,
    "end": 592.02,
    "text": "If it's for three more or less there are no business models anymore And they want to go into stock market."
  },
  {
    "start": 593.08,
    "end": 593.28,
    "text": "Yes."
  },
  {
    "start": 593.52,
    "end": 601.7,
    "text": "so this issue they have a different type of calculus in their mind."
  },
  {
    "start": 601.76,
    "end": 609.02,
    "text": "Their mind is that this AI will be so good, it'll find and create the next business model."
  },
  {
    "start": 613.62,
    "end": 615.52,
    "text": "what Sam Altman said maybe a year or two years ago."
  },
  {
    "start": 615.64,
    "end": 617.24,
    "text": "Somebody asked him, how are you going to make money?"
  },
  {
    "start": 617.38,
    "end": 623.08,
    "text": "You're spending all this money and he says well I'm not smart enough but when I make AGI, AGI is gonna tell me how to make."
  },
  {
    "start": 630.5,
    "end": 642.04,
    "text": "There will still definitely be some people, some very high enterprises governments research labs that we'll still want to use these online really giant models."
  },
  {
    "start": 643.14,
    "end": 644.72,
    "text": "And there's probably a business there."
  },
  {
    "start": 645.08,
    "end": 646.06,
    "text": "but is it a business?"
  },
  {
    "start": 646.12,
    "end": 651.52,
    "text": "That will sustain a trillion dollar valuation or sustained a multi-trillion dollar capex build out?"
  },
  {
    "start": 652.32,
    "end": 654.96,
    "text": "It's hard to say I would be suspicious of that."
  },
  {
    "start": 655.62,
    "end": 661.74,
    "text": "i think A lot of them are also thinking hey now that I have this capability you know, duplicate the software companies."
  },
  {
    "start": 661.84,
    "end": 681.74,
    "text": "I can duplicate an Oracle or Salesforce and bring that value in but the problem with that is once you have it then everybody else can just make their own sales force than your not going to be able take this same... You won't be able to take a thousand dollar subscription for Salesforce to go from Salesforce into the hands of these ad labs."
  },
  {
    "start": 681.82,
    "end": 686.16,
    "text": "so the economics are not clear"
  },
  {
    "start": 687.42,
    "end": 694.12,
    "text": "But the pressure is high for this, and there's another battlefield."
  },
  {
    "start": 694.6,
    "end": 697.36,
    "text": "Apple and OpenAI were close partners."
  },
  {
    "start": 697.72,
    "end": 700.48,
    "text": "now they could become direct competitors."
  },
  {
    "start": 700.78,
    "end": 705.9,
    "text": "The real battle concerns access to people And should apple fear OpenAI more?"
  },
  {
    "start": 709.18,
    "end": 710.92,
    "text": "I actually think it should be the other way around."
  },
  {
    "start": 711.84,
    "end": 723.54,
    "text": "you know, OpenAI hired a few hundred people actually from Apple and now they're being sued because certain people brought information to open AI."
  },
  {
    "start": 723.84,
    "end": 736.78,
    "text": "So I think there definitely is grounds for Apple to be filing these lawsuits but at the same time... OpenAI is not a hardware company, and I've run software companies."
  },
  {
    "start": 736.84,
    "end": 741.1,
    "text": "And they are very different in the culture of people who know how."
  },
  {
    "start": 741.26,
    "end": 741.98,
    "text": "it's very different."
  },
  {
    "start": 743.2,
    "end": 749.72,
    "text": "right now Apple has billions more than probably one to two billion customers globally."
  },
  {
    "start": 750.6,
    "end": 753.78,
    "text": "this isn't something that you can displace as start-up."
  },
  {
    "start": 759.08,
    "end": 761.56,
    "text": "Apple for is access to the customer, right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 761.62,
    "end": 762.64,
    "text": "Because they don't have hardware."
  },
  {
    "start": 763.62,
    "end": 776.88,
    "text": "They are an application on top of and operating system on top Of hardware And if apple controls the hardware and the operating System apple gets it decide whether or not you're even in The app store and then you're not in the App Store."
  },
  {
    "start": 777.42,
    "end": 786.34,
    "text": "You don't Have a business Right at least from a software perspective You know, even if you're in the app store do you have permission to get the microphone?"
  },
  {
    "start": 786.4,
    "end": 788.46,
    "text": "Do you have the permission to see the calendar."
  },
  {
    "start": 788.54,
    "end": 791.14,
    "text": "Do you Have permission To send an email?"
  },
  {
    "start": 791.44,
    "end": 792.36,
    "text": "right all of these things."
  },
  {
    "start": 792.52,
    "end": 799.98,
    "text": "that will be naturally given too The AI solution from Apple itself but the apple gets its shoes."
  },
  {
    "start": 800.3,
    "end": 801.46,
    "text": "Do I give it to Anthropic?"
  },
  {
    "start": 801.58,
    "end": 802.68,
    "text": "Do i give It to open ai?"
  },
  {
    "start": 802.78,
    "end": 804.26,
    "text": "do i Give it to you know grok?"
  },
  {
    "start": 804.36,
    "end": 813.18,
    "text": "alright so Yeah, so I think it's actually something that the software companies need to be more afraid of their platforms."
  },
  {
    "start": 814.42,
    "end": 819.06,
    "text": "You are a busy man and you wrote another article or new paper."
  },
  {
    "start": 819.42,
    "end": 822.58,
    "text": "Yeah, I don't know when you sleep but that's your secret!"
  },
  {
    "start": 823.16,
    "end": 827.02,
    "text": "And this headline is A Great AI Reckoning."
  },
  {
    "start": 827.68,
    "end": 834.86,
    "text": "and AI is revolutionary technology But its financing may not be sustainable."
  },
  {
    "start": 835.58,
    "end": 838.76,
    "text": "The current business model maybe the real problem."
  },
  {
    "start": 839.74,
    "end": 843.06,
    "text": "My question is Are we facing great AI reckoning?"
  },
  {
    "start": 844.84,
    "end": 847.96,
    "text": "Well, I mean this is kind of how you know your last few questions."
  },
  {
    "start": 848.06,
    "end": 851.56,
    "text": "I think already answers This particular one."
  },
  {
    "start": 851.64,
    "end": 851.94,
    "text": "Is that?"
  },
  {
    "start": 852.36,
    "end": 852.7,
    "text": "You know it."
  },
  {
    "start": 853.02,
    "end": 862.58,
    "text": "if we know that we are spending too much If we know That the long-term macro picture is that at a cost or the price of tokens they're getting cheaper and cheaper."
  },
  {
    "start": 863.12,
    "end": 866.14,
    "text": "And you know intelligence has been commoditized."
  },
  {
    "start": 868.2,
    "end": 881.08,
    "text": "There definitely needs to be a correction because right now the entire stock market and economy is built on expecting AI to become a decade trillion business in next couple of years."
  },
  {
    "start": 882.2,
    "end": 893.66,
    "text": "Which I just don't see happening, some people project it forward of Anthropic and said, oh Anthropic a year ago they were you know a billion dollars."
  },
  {
    "start": 893.76,
    "end": 897.6,
    "text": "now their run rate is something like thirty to forty million."
  },
  {
    "start": 897.88,
    "end": 901.02,
    "text": "that means next year there will be four hundred billion."
  },
  {
    "start": 901.08,
    "end": 903.02,
    "text": "then the year after day we'll be four trillion."
  },
  {
    "start": 906.36,
    "end": 907.48,
    "text": "The world doesn't work that way."
  },
  {
    "start": 907.62,
    "end": 912.46,
    "text": "right when your smaller you can grow but once you get to a certain size things will slow down."
  },
  {
    "start": 912.56,
    "end": 918.54,
    "text": "I think what companies will report that their growth have slowed."
  },
  {
    "start": 918.9,
    "end": 921.44,
    "text": "They're not growing at ten times a year or forty times the year."
  },
  {
    "start": 922.38,
    "end": 931.56,
    "text": "and when that happens, uh...the thousand or the hundred X multiples of-of the revenue becomes unsustainable."
  },
  {
    "start": 932.62,
    "end": 935.32,
    "text": "But this question, we have all the time in the markets."
  },
  {
    "start": 936.82,
    "end": 938.02,
    "text": "Where is a business model?"
  },
  {
    "start": 938.96,
    "end": 940.6,
    "text": "Is AI overvalued?"
  },
  {
    "start": 941.18,
    "end": 946.3,
    "text": "and so on... And then Jens Wang and these guys come up to us saying that they know everything's fine."
  },
  {
    "start": 946.68,
    "end": 949.92,
    "text": "This is our biggest industry ever seen in our lifetime."
  },
  {
    "start": 951.4,
    "end": 952.34,
    "text": "Please invest!"
  },
  {
    "start": 954.06,
    "end": 957.74,
    "text": "Well I think you need to look at who's saying it and why they're saying it."
  },
  {
    "start": 957.98,
    "end": 962.6,
    "text": "The most respect for him, he's one of the best CEOs out there."
  },
  {
    "start": 963.1,
    "end": 965.98,
    "text": "And and he's built a you know four or five trillion dollar business."
  },
  {
    "start": 966.62,
    "end": 977.26,
    "text": "but what he saying is something that supports his And what he's been doing in the last few years is essentially, he's investing in the companies who buy his products."
  },
  {
    "start": 977.56,
    "end": 981.92,
    "text": "He's investing and the company's will distribute an operate as product."
  },
  {
    "start": 982.02,
    "end": 993.74,
    "text": "In fact, even giving a backstop so that you won't be able by this services from the hyperscalars on the neoclouds if they don't have to business for it right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 994.0,
    "end": 1001.24,
    "text": "So here's insurance policy or somebody buying its business And that type of circular dealing, it's great for a stock price."
  },
  {
    "start": 1001.32,
    "end": 1014.06,
    "text": "It is great for his revenues but its not clear sustainable and there needs to be real revenues coming from companies who will pay versus the investors paying."
  },
  {
    "start": 1014.28,
    "end": 1041.88,
    "text": "right now most people are paying for cloud services or AI labs and they subsidizing customers with acquire keep their customer When the revenue is, you know a hundred percent or ninety percent real customers versus the labs paying the hyperscalers who then buy their devices and get investment from GPU companies."
  },
  {
    "start": 1042.92,
    "end": 1049.3,
    "text": "Once we move out of that circular system than you can prove this as healthy natural business."
  },
  {
    "start": 1049.66,
    "end": 1052.56,
    "text": "until it happens its quite questionable."
  },
  {
    "start": 1053.1,
    "end": 1061.36,
    "text": "But they believe if AI is moving more to the industry, that the industry can use more AI and be efficient."
  },
  {
    "start": 1061.42,
    "end": 1062.94,
    "text": "And will pay much money for it?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1063.16,
    "end": 1064.58,
    "text": "Is this a solution for you?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1065.08,
    "end": 1076.86,
    "text": "No because exactly what we said earlier in fact I've spoken with hundreds of companies over these last few years... ...I know how their using them!"
  },
  {
    "start": 1080.52,
    "end": 1084.72,
    "text": "For one to two months earlier this year in Q-two, people got a little crazy."
  },
  {
    "start": 1084.9,
    "end": 1095.06,
    "text": "And they just said spend and try it because Jensen says so Because you should spend half as much on your salary As on AI."
  },
  {
    "start": 1095.54,
    "end": 1096.66,
    "text": "That's the right ratio."
  },
  {
    "start": 1096.98,
    "end": 1098.58,
    "text": "People went crazy doing that."
  },
  {
    "start": 1099.24,
    "end": 1100.06,
    "text": "The bills came In."
  },
  {
    "start": 1102.14,
    "end": 1107.58,
    "text": "We're spending hundreds of millions But we are not getting any real return from them."
  },
  {
    "start": 1108.86,
    "end": 1114.52,
    "text": "If that frenzy stops and the real businesses wake up, every business has to make their books balanced."
  },
  {
    "start": 1114.74,
    "end": 1114.94,
    "text": "Right."
  },
  {
    "start": 1115.3,
    "end": 1117.56,
    "text": "So when you spend money, You have to get something back."
  },
  {
    "start": 1117.68,
    "end": 1130.1,
    "text": "and this is the fact that I just spent a couple of days with a few hundred billionaires in business owners And they care very much about every dollar They want to give value from."
  },
  {
    "start": 1130.64,
    "end": 1135.4,
    "text": "right now It's not clear That if we spend an extra dollar We'll get two dollars back."
  },
  {
    "start": 1135.8,
    "end": 1143.12,
    "text": "In terms of AI returns The hope Is there But i don't think reality is proving it out."
  },
  {
    "start": 1143.7,
    "end": 1146.4,
    "text": "So again, I'm not saying AI doesn't work."
  },
  {
    "start": 1146.54,
    "end": 1155.6,
    "text": "I think AI is amazing and it's going to create great value but the value will not accrue due-to-air lapse because it is a commoditizing technology."
  },
  {
    "start": 1157.0,
    "end": 1164.1,
    "text": "But we have heard very often from Jeff Bezos too if you put the label A.I on a project It goes through the roof."
  },
  {
    "start": 1165.02,
    "end": 1167.32,
    "text": "everybody pays lots of money for that."
  },
  {
    "start": 1169.04,
    "end": 1172.5,
    "text": "Until now a lot of people are losing money, especially the I-Labs."
  },
  {
    "start": 1172.6,
    "end": 1178.5,
    "text": "But what will happen later on is you're talking about a crash within year?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1180.06,
    "end": 1180.72,
    "text": "How sure it's that?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1181.08,
    "end": 1183.52,
    "text": "why do we believe in it and how does this mean?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1184.78,
    "end": 1204.92,
    "text": "Well... This actually sounds like bad thing but i think maybe one of best things can happened to our society right now And this is kind of what my paper was talking about, because the reality's that we are under this delusion."
  },
  {
    "start": 1205.08,
    "end": 1226.34,
    "text": "That building more data centers and paying more for AI spending on growing scale And it's going to create economic growth and is going to this future utopia."
  },
  {
    "start": 1227.2,
    "end": 1233.12,
    "text": "What we're finding, the underlying economics of that isn't a reality."
  },
  {
    "start": 1233.96,
    "end": 1244.82,
    "text": "when these numbers actually get reported and we see that you know people are spending, America is going to spend somewhere around eight hundred to nine hundred billion this year in one point."
  },
  {
    "start": 1244.86,
    "end": 1248.2,
    "text": "two-to-one point three trillion next year just on capex."
  },
  {
    "start": 1248.52,
    "end": 1250.8,
    "text": "Just with the top five six companies right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1251.36,
    "end": 1253.64,
    "text": "Not to mention all of other costs out there."
  },
  {
    "start": 1253.9,
    "end": 1262.12,
    "text": "In fact ninety plus percent in GDP and the US is related to AI build out."
  },
  {
    "start": 1262.52,
    "end": 1265.46,
    "text": "This is very, very one-sided and very unhealthy."
  },
  {
    "start": 1266.22,
    "end": 1274.18,
    "text": "this much larger risk than the two thousand internet bubble."
  },
  {
    "start": 1274.32,
    "end": 1285.26,
    "text": "you know at that time The Internet sector was something like thirty five percent of total stock market in America."
  },
  {
    "start": 1285.82,
    "end": 1294.46,
    "text": "Right now the AI business, the industry itself is around of the total stock market today."
  },
  {
    "start": 1294.58,
    "end": 1296.94,
    "text": "Just a few companies, right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1298.04,
    "end": 1316.26,
    "text": "So if anything happens to them... If anything happens with belief that AI is the future and will bring lots of revenue I believe it's a great technology but what i don't think is that AI will create massive amounts of new revenue because It has become cheaper over time."
  },
  {
    "start": 1316.64,
    "end": 1320.24,
    "text": "And when things are getting cheaper and cheaper, even though you have people who said oh but."
  },
  {
    "start": 1320.28,
    "end": 1323.2,
    "text": "then you have Jevon's Preparadox which means that the cheaper it gets."
  },
  {
    "start": 1323.46,
    "end": 1324.32,
    "text": "The more use."
  },
  {
    "start": 1324.7,
    "end": 1339.92,
    "text": "yes this is true as to where he used But they're more than one that we're going on your laptop or phone for free not the ones that will pay fifty dollars a hundred dollars per million tokens To the anthropics in open eyes of the world right."
  },
  {
    "start": 1340.28,
    "end": 1348.46,
    "text": "so if look over two weeks or three weeks, there's been a major change in terms of open router traffic."
  },
  {
    "start": 1348.58,
    "end": 1353.44,
    "text": "A year and half ago two percent of traffic was going to open source models."
  },
  {
    "start": 1353.76,
    "end": 1357.56,
    "text": "right now over sixty percent of the traffic is going to opensource models."
  },
  {
    "start": 1357.84,
    "end": 1361.62,
    "text": "if that trend continues you know within another year will probably be eighty percent."
  },
  {
    "start": 1361.72,
    "end": 1362.96,
    "text": "it'll be an open-source model."
  },
  {
    "start": 1363.02,
    "end": 1370.32,
    "text": "so more and more of the devices that you control."
  },
  {
    "start": 1370.94,
    "end": 1387.12,
    "text": "And less and less will go to the high-end frontier models, all at the same time we are building out more data centers which makes this supply bigger and bigger when it is under pressure."
  },
  {
    "start": 1387.62,
    "end": 1391.04,
    "text": "essentially you become pressured to zero margin."
  },
  {
    "start": 1391.32,
    "end": 1401.36,
    "text": "people sell these premium systems or solutions for cheaper because they have Pay back the cost of building these data centers, right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1401.7,
    "end": 1404.6,
    "text": "So this is a all-the-macro."
  },
  {
    "start": 1404.7,
    "end": 1408.98,
    "text": "forces are going against us Long term or midterm"
  },
  {
    "start": 1409.58,
    "end": 1411.4,
    "text": "and we're on the open models."
  },
  {
    "start": 1411.6,
    "end": 1412.6,
    "text": "They aren't China mostly."
  },
  {
    "start": 1413.56,
    "end": 1415.96,
    "text": "Yeah Right now that the best opened models are in China."
  },
  {
    "start": 1416.06,
    "end": 1422.3,
    "text": "But then you know I think Nvidia actually had just recently released their Nemetron model That it's pretty good."
  },
  {
    "start": 1422.98,
    "end": 1425.5,
    "text": "And Japan has a really good model."
  },
  {
    "start": 1427.5,
    "end": 1429.14,
    "text": "France has a pretty decent model."
  },
  {
    "start": 1430.76,
    "end": 1434.84,
    "text": "Singapore recently released some models, so right now actually models are coming out around the world."
  },
  {
    "start": 1435.0,
    "end": 1437.36,
    "text": "I think The best open source is still in China."
  },
  {
    "start": 1437.48,
    "end": 1443.74,
    "text": "but Right now what we're seeing Is that you don't have to be US and China To make decent models."
  },
  {
    "start": 1445.42,
    "end": 1448.74,
    "text": "And who will face first this pressure That would come?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1449.98,
    "end": 1453.06,
    "text": "The chip makers, AI labs, cloud companies."
  },
  {
    "start": 1454.2,
    "end": 1455.54,
    "text": "Yes, actually yes."
  },
  {
    "start": 1455.62,
    "end": 1467.64,
    "text": "And I think the biggest pressure will be the pure play AI labs because they only have one revenue source right that day They have to sell tokens."
  },
  {
    "start": 1468.04,
    "end": 1474.2,
    "text": "if they cannot sell tokens then we'll go out of business And they are also highly leveraged there."
  },
  {
    "start": 1474.28,
    "end": 1481.26,
    "text": "They've made commitments, you know I think OpenAI has made the commitment of something like six or seven hundred billion dollars over the next four five years."
  },
  {
    "start": 1482.02,
    "end": 1486.76,
    "text": "Anthropics probably make a couple to three hundred million dollars of commitments as well."
  },
  {
    "start": 1487.06,
    "end": 1503.48,
    "text": "so all these Commitments that at some point people gonna come and collect and if your revenues are in tens your commitments up to repay things are in hundreds of billions, it doesn't end well."
  },
  {
    "start": 1504.86,
    "end": 1513.86,
    "text": "Now I think that the next one too actually be affected is the chip companies—the memory companies and GPU companies because they've gone up."
  },
  {
    "start": 1514.36,
    "end": 1521.64,
    "text": "you know five ten X over last few years —and when in the market is that this will continue."
  },
  {
    "start": 1522.12,
    "end": 1545.56,
    "text": "The growth they've seen, these doublings and triplings of revenue and production are going to continue once there's any sign it does not continue then massive selling and correction coming down happens a lot faster than growing up."
  },
  {
    "start": 1546.72,
    "end": 1547.26,
    "text": "Yeah, of course."
  },
  {
    "start": 1547.66,
    "end": 1553.66,
    "text": "And it's a very painful situation or very painful thing for a lot of investors and people."
  },
  {
    "start": 1553.84,
    "end": 1556.96,
    "text": "I think nearly everybody has in his funds."
  },
  {
    "start": 1560.46,
    "end": 1565.4,
    "text": "but do you see something positive if the crash will come?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1575.32,
    "end": 1579.68,
    "text": "that the reckoning before they reconnecting."
  },
  {
    "start": 1580.18,
    "end": 1601.34,
    "text": "And so, the reckonning is what we just described as a major market correction and I think this is actually potentially positive because leaders of both companies tend to want to delay decisions until there's crisis."
  },
  {
    "start": 1601.72,
    "end": 1609.06,
    "text": "then all the things that used to be unimaginable becomes possible, and difficult decisions are forced to happen."
  },
  {
    "start": 1609.74,
    "end": 1618.94,
    "text": "And I think as crises go a market correction is painful but it's relatively reversible crisis."
  },
  {
    "start": 1619.28,
    "end": 1624.64,
    "text": "As we've seen multiple times throughout history markets crash within year two or five."
  },
  {
    "start": 1625.04,
    "end": 1632.8,
    "text": "they come back But rather than having things like wars or famines, big health crisis."
  },
  {
    "start": 1633.1,
    "end": 1636.88,
    "text": "Things that would take much longer to recover from."
  },
  {
    "start": 1637.88,
    "end": 1642.8,
    "text": "But my forecast is that there will be five reconnectings."
  },
  {
    "start": 1642.86,
    "end": 1646.86,
    "text": "And one reconnecting, I think U.S and China would stop this race."
  },
  {
    "start": 1647.58,
    "end": 1650.06,
    "text": "It's actually an unhealthy unnecessary race."
  },
  {
    "start": 1650.58,
    "end": 1651.84,
    "text": "They'll start to work together."
  },
  {
    "start": 1655.58,
    "end": 1665.98,
    "text": "US will need China to help sustain and maintain stability in the global economy And that this is what happened in two thousand eight with the great financial crisis."
  },
  {
    "start": 1666.68,
    "end": 1672.04,
    "text": "China actually kept buying us bonds even though they supported the US state."
  },
  {
    "start": 1672.08,
    "end": 1674.16,
    "text": "They had a major stimulus bill."
  },
  {
    "start": 1674.56,
    "end": 1679.6,
    "text": "So it kept the global economy going when everything could have been much worse, right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1679.96,
    "end": 1680.08,
    "text": "and"
  },
  {
    "start": 1680.84,
    "end": 1683.12,
    "text": "They did because everybody's sitting at the same boat."
  },
  {
    "start": 1683.46,
    "end": 1687.54,
    "text": "It's not only for humanity Because I need to markets too."
  },
  {
    "start": 1688.1,
    "end": 1688.2,
    "text": "Yeah"
  },
  {
    "start": 1689.4,
    "end": 1693.04,
    "text": "Yes well Exactly, and I think this is the same case now."
  },
  {
    "start": 1693.42,
    "end": 1694.6,
    "text": "Is that when this crashes?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1694.96,
    "end": 1695.24,
    "text": "It will."
  },
  {
    "start": 1695.48,
    "end": 1702.68,
    "text": "it will bring pressure on everyone in China again realizes That they can be the supporter And then we'll trade something right."
  },
  {
    "start": 1702.8,
    "end": 1706.18,
    "text": "i mean i think you know china wants to end all of these export controls."
  },
  {
    "start": 1706.58,
    "end": 1707.22,
    "text": "China once too."
  },
  {
    "start": 1707.3,
    "end": 1711.84,
    "text": "two people have no tariffs Or reduce it to be even with every one."
  },
  {
    "start": 1711.94,
    "end": 1712.62,
    "text": "all these things right."
  },
  {
    "start": 1712.96,
    "end": 1717.68,
    "text": "so I Think You Know There there Will Be Some Discussions."
  },
  {
    "start": 1719.12,
    "end": 1724.22,
    "text": "Trump is probably one of the few people that are much more transactional and willing to discuss this."
  },
  {
    "start": 1724.3,
    "end": 1734.06,
    "text": "So I think if US in China can solve their differences, that allows these two countries to stop overspending on this race and start to share the resources."
  },
  {
    "start": 1738.78,
    "end": 1745.48,
    "text": "We also then maybe think about how do we help the rest of the world catch up with AI?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1745.64,
    "end": 1747.7,
    "text": "because when they catch-up, They grow their economy."
  },
  {
    "start": 1748.04,
    "end": 1749.24,
    "text": "They become a market for us."
  },
  {
    "start": 1749.54,
    "end": 1757.48,
    "text": "The same thing that happened after World War two When the US you know spent I think seventeen billion dollars to on the Marshall plan To help rebuild Europe."
  },
  {
    "start": 1757.98,
    "end": 1759.04,
    "text": "and And what would happen?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1759.24,
    "end": 1763.78,
    "text": "You know essentially it grew the economy of Europe It became your became a great customer."
  },
  {
    "start": 1763.9,
    "end": 1770.68,
    "text": "same four, you know Japan, Korea and Philippines."
  },
  {
    "start": 1770.76,
    "end": 1771.18,
    "text": "rebuilding."
  },
  {
    "start": 1771.56,
    "end": 1771.7,
    "text": "Right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1771.78,
    "end": 1771.96,
    "text": "Again."
  },
  {
    "start": 1772.06,
    "end": 1782.6,
    "text": "so they made a bunch of friends and allies around the world that became long-term customers and partners And I think this will be just in cases when this crash happens."
  },
  {
    "start": 1782.66,
    "end": 1783.54,
    "text": "it'll affect everyone."
  },
  {
    "start": 1784.32,
    "end": 1793.08,
    "text": "But if US and China instead building giant data centers for a race, they start to build smaller data centers that are cheaper around the world."
  },
  {
    "start": 1793.48,
    "end": 1795.08,
    "text": "They essentially create their resources."
  },
  {
    "start": 1795.88,
    "end": 1802.08,
    "text": "these countries take advantage of this technology and it raises everybody together right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1802.12,
    "end": 1803.66,
    "text": "So thats another reconnecting."
  },
  {
    "start": 1803.7,
    "end": 1807.84,
    "text": "so the fractured worlds we have today will actually become more connected again."
  },
  {
    "start": 1808.66,
    "end": 1816.2,
    "text": "The other thing that will happen is if AI does what we think it would do and they affect jobs, people need to work less."
  },
  {
    "start": 1816.52,
    "end": 1828.6,
    "text": "They'll have more time then the more time allow them spend at home reconnect with family or their community which I think a lot of places are lost right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1828.94,
    "end": 1831.44,
    "text": "The fourth one is re-connecting nature."
  },
  {
    "start": 1832.58,
    "end": 1838.64,
    "text": "We've been in world where fighting higher status because of what we have."
  },
  {
    "start": 1838.96,
    "end": 1841.18,
    "text": "How much wealth do you own?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1841.22,
    "end": 1842.24,
    "text": "And how big our house is?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1842.34,
    "end": 1852.26,
    "text": "or whether a yacht, jet and the reality that these things matter less when you start to see everybody growing together."
  },
  {
    "start": 1852.92,
    "end": 1859.54,
    "text": "We had to change value systems When we started realizing most people already particularly in"
  },
  {
    "start": 1859.72,
    "end": 1859.9,
    "text": "U.S.,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1860.08,
    "end": 1863.52,
    "text": "Europe are far advanced than other."
  },
  {
    "start": 1865.58,
    "end": 1881.06,
    "text": "We can actually reduce our strain on the environment, allow it to renew itself become more in balance which I think is something that we see all the heat waves right now around the world and a lot of that is attributed two things that are doing."
  },
  {
    "start": 1881.34,
    "end": 1889.84,
    "text": "And then lastly you need reconnect again with your inner self really finding more meaning."
  },
  {
    "start": 1890.38,
    "end": 1897.14,
    "text": "And if jobs are no longer where we find meaning, then we need to find more meaning in other places."
  },
  {
    "start": 1898.44,
    "end": 1903.64,
    "text": "And really I think focusing more on how do we learn more?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1903.7,
    "end": 1904.64,
    "text": "How do we self-grow?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1904.74,
    "end": 1907.94,
    "text": "How did see ourselves as individual beings?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1908.22,
    "end": 1916.08,
    "text": "and this one may be a little bit more nebulous but the first four our very real reconnecting."
  },
  {
    "start": 1916.8,
    "end": 1919.96,
    "text": "that can happen if we make the right decisions."
  },
  {
    "start": 1920.92,
    "end": 1928.32,
    "text": "But I think to discuss everything like what you have mentioned, We need three more hours and go deep!"
  },
  {
    "start": 1929.1,
    "end": 1935.72,
    "text": "And maybe we should discuss it in Berlin at the Big Bang AI Festival because i think its very important."
  },
  {
    "start": 1936.72,
    "end": 1938.92,
    "text": "where can see Where is our future?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1940.18,
    "end": 1950.24,
    "text": "To make hope too for people that will be better but to come there, it's painful."
  },
  {
    "start": 1951.64,
    "end": 1952.54,
    "text": "For a lot of people will be"
  },
  {
    "start": 1952.62,
    "end": 1952.94,
    "text": "painful.\"."
  },
  {
    "start": 1954.02,
    "end": 1963.82,
    "text": "Yes well I mean change is always painful and one of the things that humans resist has changed right even if its good for them you know?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1963.92,
    "end": 1966.22,
    "text": "Even in this medicine they're like oh i don't want take a shot!"
  },
  {
    "start": 1966.26,
    "end": 1970.12,
    "text": "I do not wanna go into the dentist so it has been painful enough."
  },
  {
    "start": 1970.18,
    "end": 1971.78,
    "text": "that forces action."
  },
  {
    "start": 1974.26,
    "end": 1978.1,
    "text": "this may be the impetus that starts us off on a better path."
  },
  {
    "start": 1978.72,
    "end": 1994.2,
    "text": "And what you said is very important, it's hope because everything I read today... of all these expert forecasts, it's either we're going to get into a total bifurcation of trillionaires and have-nots or there is gonna be major war."
  },
  {
    "start": 1994.42,
    "end": 1999.72,
    "text": "Or AIs are gunna come in kill us all and turn us into slaves right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1999.78,
    "end": 2004.72,
    "text": "And this the future that you read on all these experts forecast reports."
  },
  {
    "start": 2006.76,
    "end": 2011.34,
    "text": "It's not hopeful and it is not helpful because there are nothing you can do."
  },
  {
    "start": 2011.94,
    "end": 2016.26,
    "text": "And the reality that we have so much to do, which should let people know they're things that we could"
  },
  {
    "start": 2016.32,
    "end": 2016.38,
    "text": "do."
  },
  {
    "start": 2017.1,
    "end": 2021.82,
    "text": "So normally what keeps your awake at night Elven?"
  },
  {
    "start": 2021.88,
    "end": 2025.06,
    "text": "But I think we need some positive to go out of our show."
  },
  {
    "start": 2025.82,
    "end": 2029.44,
    "text": "Do you have something positive for me or my audience?"
  },
  {
    "start": 2030.42,
    "end": 2031.48,
    "text": "What was your message then?"
  },
  {
    "start": 2035.7,
    "end": 2039.14,
    "text": "Sending the last couple days with a lot of these very high net worth people."
  },
  {
    "start": 2039.62,
    "end": 2043.64,
    "text": "it actually makes me feel positive in The sense that you hear in the news."
  },
  {
    "start": 2044.1,
    "end": 2049.12,
    "text": "Oh, they're rich People there greedy and then know They only looking out for themselves and blah blah blah."
  },
  {
    "start": 2049.679,
    "end": 2054.82,
    "text": "And I would say half of the conversations That we are having here is how can i give back?"
  },
  {
    "start": 2055.28,
    "end": 2056.159,
    "text": "You Know what?"
  },
  {
    "start": 2056.219,
    "end": 2057.46,
    "text": "What Can I do to leave A legacy?"
  },
  {
    "start": 2057.94,
    "end": 2059.0,
    "text": "How can I make the world better?"
  },
  {
    "start": 2059.42,
    "end": 2059.8,
    "text": "you know what."
  },
  {
    "start": 2059.96,
    "end": 2064.199,
    "text": "how Should I use the money that I have To help society right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 2066.239,
    "end": 2071.08,
    "text": "So the caricature that you hear in news about, take down the billionaires."
  },
  {
    "start": 2072.38,
    "end": 2075.12,
    "text": "I think it's not necessarily representative."
  },
  {
    "start": 2075.159,
    "end": 2087.6,
    "text": "there may be a few people who are only after power and wealth but i That provided a value to society that brought them that wealth and it also."
  },
  {
    "start": 2087.699,
    "end": 2090.0,
    "text": "they had to go through certain life experience To get there."
  },
  {
    "start": 2090.06,
    "end": 2098.76,
    "text": "And the more intelligent you are, The more you start to realize the interdependence and interconnection between all people in society."
  },
  {
    "start": 2101.38,
    "end": 2105.96,
    "text": "So the caricature of degree billionaire I think is not as accurate."
  },
  {
    "start": 2107.84,
    "end": 2121.26,
    "text": "So hopefully that is a slightly lighter message, and I think we should think about how do we work with them to bring positive change."
  },
  {
    "start": 2122.2,
    "end": 2129.3,
    "text": "So you see a crash within the year, that's a reset for everything and a painful reset."
  },
  {
    "start": 2129.8,
    "end": 2133.86,
    "text": "And then we will have better system because are you told at that?"
  },
  {
    "start": 2133.92,
    "end": 2148.12,
    "text": "The politician will wake up that people will wake Up and they would turn things in different way and We will have yeah At least Something new something special and something positive if everybody believes in it."
  },
  {
    "start": 2148.5,
    "end": 2154.48,
    "text": "so I think we will discuss in the next shows about everything."
  },
  {
    "start": 2156.48,
    "end": 2160.36,
    "text": "We'll see what's going on there, but it is interesting!"
  },
  {
    "start": 2160.46,
    "end": 2164.14,
    "text": "Thank you very much for your thoughts and our show was over."
  },
  {
    "start": 2164.78,
    "end": 2166.46,
    "text": "This was a big bank tech report."
  },
  {
    "start": 2168.26,
    "end": 2172.36,
    "text": "You can go to Shanghai and explain what's happening right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 2173.52,
    "end": 2181.86,
    "text": "Yes i'm heading to Shanghai tomorrow at World AI Conference I guess AI conference in Asia, so it'll be interesting."
  },
  {
    "start": 2182.22,
    "end": 2185.14,
    "text": "I have lots to report back on when we meet again."
  },
  {
    "start": 2185.42,
    "end": 2192.56,
    "text": "So yeah i'm happy just do that the next two to meet you at The Next Show In Two Weeks and See."
  },
  {
    "start": 2192.68,
    "end": 2196.92,
    "text": "if anybody has some questions Please send us an email And let's talk."
  },
  {
    "start": 2197.24,
    "end": 2200.88,
    "text": "Let's Have a discussion and We need A Discussion For Everything."
  },
  {
    "start": 2200.98,
    "end": 2201.88,
    "text": "Thank You very much Alvin."
  },
  {
    "start": 2203.12,
    "end": 2203.42,
    "text": "Thank you."
  },
  {
    "start": 2203.58,
    "end": 2209.26,
    "text": "And do read the substack, have abundance is called the reckoning before the reconnecting."
  },
  {
    "start": 2209.6,
    "end": 2209.68,
    "text": "so"
  },
  {
    "start": 2210.7,
    "end": 2211.86,
    "text": "thank you very much."
  }
]