[
  {
    "start": 0.15,
    "end": 2.4,
    "text": "- So, 2023 is over,"
  },
  {
    "start": 2.4,
    "end": 6.39,
    "text": "and it of course has been the year of AI,"
  },
  {
    "start": 6.39,
    "end": 10.83,
    "text": "even though it, of course,\nalready all started in 2022,"
  },
  {
    "start": 11.79,
    "end": 16.53,
    "text": "when ChatGPT was released in November '22."
  },
  {
    "start": 16.53,
    "end": 21.53,
    "text": "But the AI pace really picked\nup and accelerated in '23,"
  },
  {
    "start": 22.98,
    "end": 27.98,
    "text": "when loads of new AI services\nand products were released"
  },
  {
    "start": 28.77,
    "end": 31.59,
    "text": "when barely a week went by"
  },
  {
    "start": 31.59,
    "end": 35.55,
    "text": "without Microsoft\nannouncing some new Copilot,"
  },
  {
    "start": 35.55,
    "end": 39.03,
    "text": "and therefore, of course, AI is here,"
  },
  {
    "start": 39.03,
    "end": 43.23,
    "text": "and AI is here to stay\nand will very, very likely"
  },
  {
    "start": 43.23,
    "end": 48.03,
    "text": "only become more and more\npowerful and hopefully helpful."
  },
  {
    "start": 48.03,
    "end": 51.45,
    "text": "But speaking of that helpfulness,"
  },
  {
    "start": 51.45,
    "end": 55.44,
    "text": "what does AI mean for us developers?"
  },
  {
    "start": 55.44,
    "end": 57.24,
    "text": "Will it replace us?"
  },
  {
    "start": 57.24,
    "end": 60.18,
    "text": "Will it replace us this\nyear, the next year,"
  },
  {
    "start": 60.18,
    "end": 62.94,
    "text": "or maybe not at all?"
  },
  {
    "start": 62.94,
    "end": 67.26,
    "text": "That's exactly what I\nwanna share my opinion on."
  },
  {
    "start": 67.26,
    "end": 72.26,
    "text": "I see three main ways of\nAI replacing developers"
  },
  {
    "start": 73.74,
    "end": 77.82,
    "text": "or having an impact on\ndevelopers, you could say."
  },
  {
    "start": 77.82,
    "end": 82.68,
    "text": "And the first way it will\nhave an impact on developers"
  },
  {
    "start": 82.68,
    "end": 87.06,
    "text": "is mainly as a tool that as developers,"
  },
  {
    "start": 87.06,
    "end": 91.62,
    "text": "we can use AI services like ChatGPT,"
  },
  {
    "start": 91.62,
    "end": 95.67,
    "text": "but of course also GitHub\nCopilot, which under the hood,"
  },
  {
    "start": 95.67,
    "end": 99.0,
    "text": "uses the open AI APIs."
  },
  {
    "start": 99.0,
    "end": 103.11,
    "text": "So it uses ChatGPT under\nthe hood, you could say."
  },
  {
    "start": 103.11,
    "end": 105.57,
    "text": "It uses the same APIs"
  },
  {
    "start": 105.57,
    "end": 107.64,
    "text": "and other tools like Midjourney."
  },
  {
    "start": 107.64,
    "end": 112.53,
    "text": "As developers, we can use\nthem to speed up our workflow"
  },
  {
    "start": 112.53,
    "end": 115.08,
    "text": "to become more efficient,"
  },
  {
    "start": 115.08,
    "end": 118.62,
    "text": "because AI writes parts of our code,"
  },
  {
    "start": 118.62,
    "end": 120.24,
    "text": "writes code blocks,"
  },
  {
    "start": 120.24,
    "end": 122.13,
    "text": "gives us suggestions,"
  },
  {
    "start": 122.13,
    "end": 124.47,
    "text": "helps us debug errors,"
  },
  {
    "start": 124.47,
    "end": 128.22,
    "text": "or if we're thinking about\ntools like Midjourney,"
  },
  {
    "start": 128.22,
    "end": 131.04,
    "text": "helps us generate assets,"
  },
  {
    "start": 131.04,
    "end": 133.53,
    "text": "which we might need to build prototypes"
  },
  {
    "start": 133.53,
    "end": 135.15,
    "text": "and things like that."
  },
  {
    "start": 135.15,
    "end": 137.73,
    "text": "And that's therefore one way"
  },
  {
    "start": 137.73,
    "end": 141.18,
    "text": "AI could have an impact on developers,"
  },
  {
    "start": 141.18,
    "end": 146.18,
    "text": "and I'd argue, already has\nan impact on developers"
  },
  {
    "start": 146.82,
    "end": 149.79,
    "text": "because that is pretty\nmuch the the present,"
  },
  {
    "start": 149.79,
    "end": 154.11,
    "text": "it's the current state\nthat we have such AI tools"
  },
  {
    "start": 154.11,
    "end": 158.25,
    "text": "that do make us developers more efficient."
  },
  {
    "start": 158.25,
    "end": 163.2,
    "text": "So that's one possible way\nof AI impacting developers."
  },
  {
    "start": 163.2,
    "end": 165.39,
    "text": "Maybe we stay in that world"
  },
  {
    "start": 165.39,
    "end": 169.02,
    "text": "and that's all we can expect from that AI"
  },
  {
    "start": 169.02,
    "end": 171.19,
    "text": "or revolution as developers."
  },
  {
    "start": 171.19,
    "end": 173.91,
    "text": "And I will get back to that later."
  },
  {
    "start": 173.91,
    "end": 177.93,
    "text": "But of course, there also\nare more extreme scenarios,"
  },
  {
    "start": 177.93,
    "end": 180.93,
    "text": "more dangerous scenarios, you could say."
  },
  {
    "start": 180.93,
    "end": 182.34,
    "text": "Well, for example,"
  },
  {
    "start": 182.34,
    "end": 187.34,
    "text": "the second main way of AI having an impact"
  },
  {
    "start": 187.38,
    "end": 189.96,
    "text": "on developers I can think of"
  },
  {
    "start": 189.96,
    "end": 194.96,
    "text": "is that AI writes much more\ncode than it does today."
  },
  {
    "start": 195.6,
    "end": 200.31,
    "text": "Because today, as I just\nexplained, it's mostly a utility,"
  },
  {
    "start": 200.31,
    "end": 203.88,
    "text": "a helpful tool that generates some code,"
  },
  {
    "start": 203.88,
    "end": 205.59,
    "text": "but not all the code."
  },
  {
    "start": 205.59,
    "end": 210.59,
    "text": "And in the future, maybe even\nin a not too distant future,"
  },
  {
    "start": 210.78,
    "end": 215.78,
    "text": "AI may be able to generate\nentire applications"
  },
  {
    "start": 216.06,
    "end": 219.03,
    "text": "so that it writes all the\ncode of an application,"
  },
  {
    "start": 219.03,
    "end": 222.87,
    "text": "not just individual\nsnippets or code blocks."
  },
  {
    "start": 222.87,
    "end": 227.49,
    "text": "And therefore, of course, it\nmight be able to get rid of"
  },
  {
    "start": 227.49,
    "end": 228.93,
    "text": "a lot more developers,"
  },
  {
    "start": 228.93,
    "end": 231.21,
    "text": "almost all developers, you could say,"
  },
  {
    "start": 231.21,
    "end": 235.68,
    "text": "because we maybe just need a\nfew that tell the AI what to do"
  },
  {
    "start": 235.68,
    "end": 238.08,
    "text": "and supervise the results."
  },
  {
    "start": 238.08,
    "end": 241.32,
    "text": "But we might not need as many\ndevelopers as we have today"
  },
  {
    "start": 241.32,
    "end": 244.05,
    "text": "because AI writes most of the code."
  },
  {
    "start": 244.05,
    "end": 245.61,
    "text": "So that's another scenario"
  },
  {
    "start": 245.61,
    "end": 248.65,
    "text": "which could be dangerous\nfor us developers."
  },
  {
    "start": 248.65,
    "end": 251.31,
    "text": "And I will of course\nalso get back to that."
  },
  {
    "start": 251.31,
    "end": 252.66,
    "text": "But first, I wanna outline"
  },
  {
    "start": 252.66,
    "end": 255.33,
    "text": "the third scenario I can think of,"
  },
  {
    "start": 255.33,
    "end": 259.86,
    "text": "and that would be a world\nwhere we maybe don't need"
  },
  {
    "start": 259.86,
    "end": 262.35,
    "text": "that much code to be written."
  },
  {
    "start": 262.35,
    "end": 267.0,
    "text": "Because why would we\nassume that the future"
  },
  {
    "start": 267.0,
    "end": 270.0,
    "text": "is about AI writing code?"
  },
  {
    "start": 270.0,
    "end": 274.44,
    "text": "Why is it not about AI applications"
  },
  {
    "start": 274.44,
    "end": 277.68,
    "text": "that can then directly do certain things?"
  },
  {
    "start": 277.68,
    "end": 280.98,
    "text": "So we don't need specialized applications"
  },
  {
    "start": 280.98,
    "end": 282.81,
    "text": "to perform certain tasks."
  },
  {
    "start": 282.81,
    "end": 286.59,
    "text": "Instead, we might have a\ncouple of AI applications"
  },
  {
    "start": 286.59,
    "end": 288.48,
    "text": "with which we interact"
  },
  {
    "start": 288.48,
    "end": 291.3,
    "text": "through voice input or written prompts,"
  },
  {
    "start": 291.3,
    "end": 294.36,
    "text": "which are then able to\ndo all kinds of things."
  },
  {
    "start": 294.36,
    "end": 296.67,
    "text": "So instead of a hotel booking website,"
  },
  {
    "start": 296.67,
    "end": 298.62,
    "text": "and a flight booking website,"
  },
  {
    "start": 298.62,
    "end": 302.43,
    "text": "and a website for doing online groceries,"
  },
  {
    "start": 302.43,
    "end": 305.37,
    "text": "we might have one AI service,"
  },
  {
    "start": 305.37,
    "end": 307.17,
    "text": "which of course would be an application,"
  },
  {
    "start": 307.17,
    "end": 308.88,
    "text": "but it would just be one,"
  },
  {
    "start": 308.88,
    "end": 310.38,
    "text": "with which we interact,"
  },
  {
    "start": 310.38,
    "end": 313.5,
    "text": "which we then tell that\nwe wanna book a vacation,"
  },
  {
    "start": 313.5,
    "end": 315.42,
    "text": "that we need a hotel, some flights,"
  },
  {
    "start": 315.42,
    "end": 317.16,
    "text": "and that we also want to order"
  },
  {
    "start": 317.16,
    "end": 319.41,
    "text": "some milk and eggs for tomorrow."
  },
  {
    "start": 319.41,
    "end": 323.13,
    "text": "And that of course would\nalso be a possible future,"
  },
  {
    "start": 323.13,
    "end": 326.34,
    "text": "and it would be a future in which we need,"
  },
  {
    "start": 326.34,
    "end": 328.68,
    "text": "basically, the developers that work"
  },
  {
    "start": 328.68,
    "end": 331.833,
    "text": "on those AI applications\nand maintain them,"
  },
  {
    "start": 332.85,
    "end": 335.58,
    "text": "even that might be doable by some AI."
  },
  {
    "start": 335.58,
    "end": 340.53,
    "text": "And hence, the entire idea\nof people writing code"
  },
  {
    "start": 340.53,
    "end": 342.54,
    "text": "and building applications"
  },
  {
    "start": 342.54,
    "end": 347.4,
    "text": "might be an idea from\nthe past in that future."
  },
  {
    "start": 347.4,
    "end": 352.17,
    "text": "But how likely are\nthese different futures?"
  },
  {
    "start": 352.17,
    "end": 357.17,
    "text": "How likely is it that we enter\none of these three scenarios?"
  },
  {
    "start": 357.57,
    "end": 361.62,
    "text": "And let's maybe start with\nthe most extreme scenario."
  },
  {
    "start": 361.62,
    "end": 364.2,
    "text": "The third one, where we don't really"
  },
  {
    "start": 364.2,
    "end": 366.06,
    "text": "have a lot of applications,"
  },
  {
    "start": 366.06,
    "end": 370.32,
    "text": "but where we instead have\nthose AI applications,"
  },
  {
    "start": 370.32,
    "end": 375.27,
    "text": "those AI services which\nperform the majority of work"
  },
  {
    "start": 375.27,
    "end": 377.4,
    "text": "or which do the majority of work,"
  },
  {
    "start": 377.4,
    "end": 381.21,
    "text": "and where we therefore need\nbasically no developers."
  },
  {
    "start": 381.21,
    "end": 383.4,
    "text": "How likely is that?"
  },
  {
    "start": 383.4,
    "end": 387.87,
    "text": "And I personally don't\nthink it's too likely."
  },
  {
    "start": 387.87,
    "end": 390.75,
    "text": "Definitely not in the very near future,"
  },
  {
    "start": 390.75,
    "end": 393.6,
    "text": "but maybe also never."
  },
  {
    "start": 393.6,
    "end": 396.6,
    "text": "Maybe this is never the\nfuture we'll live in"
  },
  {
    "start": 396.6,
    "end": 398.25,
    "text": "because, of course,"
  },
  {
    "start": 398.25,
    "end": 401.91,
    "text": "AI will become more capable and powerful,"
  },
  {
    "start": 401.91,
    "end": 405.99,
    "text": "and we will have versatile AI applications"
  },
  {
    "start": 405.99,
    "end": 408.66,
    "text": "with which we can interact."
  },
  {
    "start": 408.66,
    "end": 413.66,
    "text": "The question just is if all\ninteractions are best done"
  },
  {
    "start": 414.18,
    "end": 416.46,
    "text": "with such an AI application,"
  },
  {
    "start": 416.46,
    "end": 421.17,
    "text": "and if we want such AI\napplications to do everything,"
  },
  {
    "start": 421.17,
    "end": 426.17,
    "text": "do you want an AI you talk to,\nto check your account balance"
  },
  {
    "start": 426.84,
    "end": 430.11,
    "text": "instead of logging into\nyour online banking account"
  },
  {
    "start": 430.11,
    "end": 431.7,
    "text": "and looking at it there?"
  },
  {
    "start": 431.7,
    "end": 435.72,
    "text": "Do you want an AI to have\naccess to your bank account?"
  },
  {
    "start": 435.72,
    "end": 438.0,
    "text": "Is the question, I guess."
  },
  {
    "start": 438.0,
    "end": 442.05,
    "text": "Do you really want to book a vacation"
  },
  {
    "start": 442.05,
    "end": 444.69,
    "text": "by telling an AI what you wanna do?"
  },
  {
    "start": 444.69,
    "end": 446.28,
    "text": "Is that really how you wanna do it?"
  },
  {
    "start": 446.28,
    "end": 447.87,
    "text": "At least for me, it's not."
  },
  {
    "start": 447.87,
    "end": 451.41,
    "text": "I like the process of picking a hotel,"
  },
  {
    "start": 451.41,
    "end": 453.6,
    "text": "looking for different flights,"
  },
  {
    "start": 453.6,
    "end": 457.23,
    "text": "reading about the\ndestination I'm traveling to."
  },
  {
    "start": 457.23,
    "end": 461.73,
    "text": "That, for me, all belongs\nto that vacation experience."
  },
  {
    "start": 461.73,
    "end": 463.77,
    "text": "And it's not just the experience."
  },
  {
    "start": 463.77,
    "end": 468.69,
    "text": "I don't wanna rely on an\nAI picking the best flight"
  },
  {
    "start": 468.69,
    "end": 470.22,
    "text": "and the best hotel for me."
  },
  {
    "start": 470.22,
    "end": 472.26,
    "text": "I wanna choose it myself."
  },
  {
    "start": 472.26,
    "end": 475.23,
    "text": "And I'm fully aware that of course,"
  },
  {
    "start": 475.23,
    "end": 479.25,
    "text": "on those hotel booking websites,\nwe also get influenced."
  },
  {
    "start": 479.25,
    "end": 481.98,
    "text": "The way those hotel\nrecommendations are ranked"
  },
  {
    "start": 481.98,
    "end": 485.19,
    "text": "is not necessarily the best way for us,"
  },
  {
    "start": 485.19,
    "end": 486.9,
    "text": "but at least we have a choice."
  },
  {
    "start": 486.9,
    "end": 488.61,
    "text": "We can go through them."
  },
  {
    "start": 488.61,
    "end": 492.18,
    "text": "I don't wanna rely on\nan AI to do that for me."
  },
  {
    "start": 492.18,
    "end": 495.69,
    "text": "I don't trust AIs that\nmuch. I can't look into it."
  },
  {
    "start": 495.69,
    "end": 499.23,
    "text": "I don't know why it\npicked certain options."
  },
  {
    "start": 499.23,
    "end": 502.77,
    "text": "And these, of course, are\nvery specific examples,"
  },
  {
    "start": 502.77,
    "end": 505.86,
    "text": "but you could come up\nwith similar examples"
  },
  {
    "start": 505.86,
    "end": 508.86,
    "text": "for basically all industries."
  },
  {
    "start": 508.86,
    "end": 511.14,
    "text": "And then it's also also possible"
  },
  {
    "start": 511.14,
    "end": 516.09,
    "text": "that we have certain application\nareas, certain industries,"
  },
  {
    "start": 516.09,
    "end": 518.64,
    "text": "where such a versatile AI"
  },
  {
    "start": 518.64,
    "end": 521.43,
    "text": "might not even be the best solution."
  },
  {
    "start": 521.43,
    "end": 523.29,
    "text": "It might in some cases,"
  },
  {
    "start": 523.29,
    "end": 527.82,
    "text": "be too complex to always\ninteract with an AI"
  },
  {
    "start": 527.82,
    "end": 530.64,
    "text": "instead of a specialized application"
  },
  {
    "start": 530.64,
    "end": 532.92,
    "text": "that does a specific job well."
  },
  {
    "start": 532.92,
    "end": 534.87,
    "text": "So chances are high that"
  },
  {
    "start": 534.87,
    "end": 538.62,
    "text": "in probably a lot of\nscenarios and use cases,"
  },
  {
    "start": 538.62,
    "end": 541.77,
    "text": "such a versatile AI application"
  },
  {
    "start": 541.77,
    "end": 545.13,
    "text": "would be less reliable and less efficient"
  },
  {
    "start": 545.13,
    "end": 549.0,
    "text": "than a specialized application\nthat does one thing"
  },
  {
    "start": 549.0,
    "end": 551.61,
    "text": "and does that thing well."
  },
  {
    "start": 551.61,
    "end": 554.85,
    "text": "For example, I don't\nwant an AI application"
  },
  {
    "start": 554.85,
    "end": 557.91,
    "text": "which I have to tell to scan the document"
  },
  {
    "start": 557.91,
    "end": 559.86,
    "text": "I just put into my scanner."
  },
  {
    "start": 559.86,
    "end": 561.99,
    "text": "Having a dedicated application for that"
  },
  {
    "start": 561.99,
    "end": 563.55,
    "text": "makes a lot of sense to me"
  },
  {
    "start": 563.55,
    "end": 566.1,
    "text": "because I don't wanna order groceries"
  },
  {
    "start": 566.1,
    "end": 567.57,
    "text": "from that same application."
  },
  {
    "start": 567.57,
    "end": 571.11,
    "text": "I just want to scan the\ndocument I put into my scanner."
  },
  {
    "start": 571.11,
    "end": 573.87,
    "text": "And again, it's just a made up example,"
  },
  {
    "start": 573.87,
    "end": 576.63,
    "text": "but you probably get my point."
  },
  {
    "start": 576.63,
    "end": 579.96,
    "text": "And that's even not all that\ncould be mentioned here."
  },
  {
    "start": 579.96,
    "end": 582.3,
    "text": "This is maybe just my personal preference"
  },
  {
    "start": 582.3,
    "end": 584.49,
    "text": "and others might disagree."
  },
  {
    "start": 584.49,
    "end": 588.69,
    "text": "But what about accountability\nand responsibility?"
  },
  {
    "start": 588.69,
    "end": 592.26,
    "text": "If we rely on versatile AI applications,"
  },
  {
    "start": 592.26,
    "end": 597.26,
    "text": "it basically means that we\ntrust them to do things right."
  },
  {
    "start": 597.27,
    "end": 600.51,
    "text": "Because again, looking\ninto them is pretty hard."
  },
  {
    "start": 600.51,
    "end": 605.1,
    "text": "Sure, we might be able to\ncome up with ways of logging"
  },
  {
    "start": 605.1,
    "end": 608.52,
    "text": "how an AI came to the\nconclusion it came to,"
  },
  {
    "start": 608.52,
    "end": 610.56,
    "text": "but even then you have to trust it"
  },
  {
    "start": 610.56,
    "end": 612.51,
    "text": "that this logging is done right,"
  },
  {
    "start": 612.51,
    "end": 616.59,
    "text": "because there is no deterministic\ncode that leads to that."
  },
  {
    "start": 616.59,
    "end": 617.94,
    "text": "Instead, we all know"
  },
  {
    "start": 617.94,
    "end": 621.81,
    "text": "that if we give an AI\nthe same prompt twice,"
  },
  {
    "start": 621.81,
    "end": 625.47,
    "text": "we might not necessarily\nget the same result twice."
  },
  {
    "start": 625.47,
    "end": 627.15,
    "text": "But even if that would change,"
  },
  {
    "start": 627.15,
    "end": 630.42,
    "text": "we still would have an AI doing things,"
  },
  {
    "start": 630.42,
    "end": 635.04,
    "text": "and an AI is probably not\naccountable for its actions."
  },
  {
    "start": 635.04,
    "end": 638.01,
    "text": "And that's a big difference\ncompared to a human."
  },
  {
    "start": 638.01,
    "end": 641.43,
    "text": "If you got humans writing\ncode for an application,"
  },
  {
    "start": 641.43,
    "end": 643.44,
    "text": "you have responsibility,"
  },
  {
    "start": 643.44,
    "end": 645.42,
    "text": "you have accountability."
  },
  {
    "start": 645.42,
    "end": 648.54,
    "text": "And that of course is a major factor"
  },
  {
    "start": 648.54,
    "end": 651.36,
    "text": "for so many industries."
  },
  {
    "start": 651.36,
    "end": 653.73,
    "text": "And kind of related to that,"
  },
  {
    "start": 653.73,
    "end": 656.7,
    "text": "it of course is probably fair to assume"
  },
  {
    "start": 656.7,
    "end": 659.73,
    "text": "that even if we would have a perfect world"
  },
  {
    "start": 659.73,
    "end": 662.19,
    "text": "where we got a super powerful AI"
  },
  {
    "start": 662.19,
    "end": 665.46,
    "text": "that is accountable,\nthat we all wanna use,"
  },
  {
    "start": 665.46,
    "end": 668.67,
    "text": "even if that would be the\nworld we'd be living in,"
  },
  {
    "start": 668.67,
    "end": 671.91,
    "text": "we'd still have a lot of industries,"
  },
  {
    "start": 671.91,
    "end": 675.15,
    "text": "and government services, and so on,"
  },
  {
    "start": 675.15,
    "end": 680.15,
    "text": "that would probably not use it\nin the short or even midterm"
  },
  {
    "start": 680.4,
    "end": 683.61,
    "text": "because we all know, at\nleast here in Germany,"
  },
  {
    "start": 683.61,
    "end": 686.19,
    "text": "but I guess it's the\nsame all over the world,"
  },
  {
    "start": 686.19,
    "end": 689.55,
    "text": "how quick certain industries,"
  },
  {
    "start": 689.55,
    "end": 692.52,
    "text": "and especially government\nservices have been"
  },
  {
    "start": 692.52,
    "end": 696.57,
    "text": "to adopt digitalization and the internet."
  },
  {
    "start": 696.57,
    "end": 700.08,
    "text": "Here in Germany, there\nstill is a lot of stuff"
  },
  {
    "start": 700.08,
    "end": 703.65,
    "text": "that has to be done on\npaper, not over the internet,"
  },
  {
    "start": 703.65,
    "end": 705.75,
    "text": "not using digitalization."
  },
  {
    "start": 705.75,
    "end": 708.6,
    "text": "And we can only imagine how quick"
  },
  {
    "start": 708.6,
    "end": 711.57,
    "text": "AI services would be adopted there."
  },
  {
    "start": 711.57,
    "end": 714.15,
    "text": "And of course then, we also\nwould've other problems"
  },
  {
    "start": 714.15,
    "end": 716.58,
    "text": "like data privacy and so on."
  },
  {
    "start": 716.58,
    "end": 721.02,
    "text": "So, I am very confident that\nin the near and midterm,"
  },
  {
    "start": 721.02,
    "end": 722.76,
    "text": "and maybe never,"
  },
  {
    "start": 722.76,
    "end": 724.59,
    "text": "we'll be living in a world"
  },
  {
    "start": 724.59,
    "end": 728.403,
    "text": "where we only interact with AI services."
  },
  {
    "start": 729.27,
    "end": 731.52,
    "text": "But that was just one extreme world."
  },
  {
    "start": 731.52,
    "end": 735.42,
    "text": "Another pretty extreme\nworld for us developers,"
  },
  {
    "start": 735.42,
    "end": 738.48,
    "text": "would be one where AI writes"
  },
  {
    "start": 738.48,
    "end": 742.59,
    "text": "basically all the application\ncode that must be written."
  },
  {
    "start": 742.59,
    "end": 745.77,
    "text": "In such a world, we would\nstill have some developers"
  },
  {
    "start": 745.77,
    "end": 747.99,
    "text": "that supervise those results,"
  },
  {
    "start": 747.99,
    "end": 750.81,
    "text": "and check them and maybe fix tiny errors,"
  },
  {
    "start": 750.81,
    "end": 754.2,
    "text": "or write very specific niche code,"
  },
  {
    "start": 754.2,
    "end": 758.52,
    "text": "but we wouldn't have as many\ndevelopers as we do today."
  },
  {
    "start": 758.52,
    "end": 761.46,
    "text": "That would be another possible scenario."
  },
  {
    "start": 761.46,
    "end": 762.78,
    "text": "But here, again,"
  },
  {
    "start": 762.78,
    "end": 765.0,
    "text": "I'm doubtful if we'll be living"
  },
  {
    "start": 765.0,
    "end": 767.55,
    "text": "in such a world anytime soon."
  },
  {
    "start": 767.55,
    "end": 769.17,
    "text": "For a couple of reasons."
  },
  {
    "start": 769.17,
    "end": 771.27,
    "text": "Now, one reason is essentially the same"
  },
  {
    "start": 771.27,
    "end": 772.8,
    "text": "as I just stated before,"
  },
  {
    "start": 772.8,
    "end": 776.97,
    "text": "accountability, and then\nspeed of adoption, and so on."
  },
  {
    "start": 776.97,
    "end": 778.17,
    "text": "That would be the same"
  },
  {
    "start": 778.17,
    "end": 781.77,
    "text": "because if AI writes all of the code,"
  },
  {
    "start": 781.77,
    "end": 783.24,
    "text": "it again, would be the question,"
  },
  {
    "start": 783.24,
    "end": 785.88,
    "text": "who's responsible for that code?"
  },
  {
    "start": 785.88,
    "end": 788.94,
    "text": "Who's responsible if it\ncontains critical bugs"
  },
  {
    "start": 788.94,
    "end": 792.06,
    "text": "that might lead to severe errors?"
  },
  {
    "start": 792.06,
    "end": 796.11,
    "text": "Now, you could say, |The\npeople who supervise the AI"
  },
  {
    "start": 796.11,
    "end": 798.93,
    "text": "and whose responsibility\nis to check the code,\""
  },
  {
    "start": 798.93,
    "end": 803.04,
    "text": "but how many developers would\nyou need for such a task"
  },
  {
    "start": 803.04,
    "end": 805.86,
    "text": "if we're dealing with\na complex application?"
  },
  {
    "start": 805.86,
    "end": 809.94,
    "text": "Would you really gain that\nmuch by using an AI then,"
  },
  {
    "start": 809.94,
    "end": 811.92,
    "text": "or would it not be better to have"
  },
  {
    "start": 811.92,
    "end": 816.51,
    "text": "like a similar amount of\ndevelopers who use AI support"
  },
  {
    "start": 816.51,
    "end": 819.27,
    "text": "but write the code themselves?"
  },
  {
    "start": 819.27,
    "end": 821.7,
    "text": "Because we all know that"
  },
  {
    "start": 821.7,
    "end": 824.22,
    "text": "diving into code we have not written,"
  },
  {
    "start": 824.22,
    "end": 827.7,
    "text": "of course, takes way\nlonger to understand it"
  },
  {
    "start": 827.7,
    "end": 830.1,
    "text": "than if we write code ourselves."
  },
  {
    "start": 830.1,
    "end": 831.42,
    "text": "It's a natural thing."
  },
  {
    "start": 831.42,
    "end": 835.23,
    "text": "And therefore, this\nproblem, at least partially,"
  },
  {
    "start": 835.23,
    "end": 836.85,
    "text": "might still exist."
  },
  {
    "start": 836.85,
    "end": 839.43,
    "text": "But I have an even bigger doubt."
  },
  {
    "start": 839.43,
    "end": 842.85,
    "text": "I am not convinced that anytime soon,"
  },
  {
    "start": 842.85,
    "end": 845.4,
    "text": "AI will be capable enough"
  },
  {
    "start": 845.4,
    "end": 848.88,
    "text": "to write entire applications on its own."
  },
  {
    "start": 848.88,
    "end": 851.94,
    "text": "Sure, we have all seen those examples"
  },
  {
    "start": 851.94,
    "end": 856.05,
    "text": "where people drew a basic\nwebsite onto a napkin,"
  },
  {
    "start": 856.05,
    "end": 858.78,
    "text": "scanned that, and then the AI built that."
  },
  {
    "start": 858.78,
    "end": 860.25,
    "text": "But let's be honest,"
  },
  {
    "start": 860.25,
    "end": 863.85,
    "text": "these were super simple\nand pretty ugly examples."
  },
  {
    "start": 863.85,
    "end": 866.01,
    "text": "This is not really impressive."
  },
  {
    "start": 866.01,
    "end": 867.45,
    "text": "I mean, it's impressive"
  },
  {
    "start": 867.45,
    "end": 869.82,
    "text": "that we have technology that can do that,"
  },
  {
    "start": 869.82,
    "end": 872.22,
    "text": "but it's not something we have to fear"
  },
  {
    "start": 872.22,
    "end": 874.29,
    "text": "when it comes to that technology"
  },
  {
    "start": 874.29,
    "end": 877.32,
    "text": "replacing us for complex scenarios."
  },
  {
    "start": 877.32,
    "end": 880.32,
    "text": "Because for basic websites like this,"
  },
  {
    "start": 880.32,
    "end": 883.35,
    "text": "you didn't really need developers before."
  },
  {
    "start": 883.35,
    "end": 886.8,
    "text": "You could just use a\npage builder like Wix,"
  },
  {
    "start": 886.8,
    "end": 889.14,
    "text": "or some content management system,"
  },
  {
    "start": 889.14,
    "end": 890.16,
    "text": "and you could even build"
  },
  {
    "start": 890.16,
    "end": 893.1,
    "text": "way more complex websites with those."
  },
  {
    "start": 893.1,
    "end": 896.49,
    "text": "But when we talk about\nmore complex websites"
  },
  {
    "start": 896.49,
    "end": 899.25,
    "text": "or applications in general,"
  },
  {
    "start": 899.25,
    "end": 903.3,
    "text": "I am really not sure if\nwe'll soon be in a world"
  },
  {
    "start": 903.3,
    "end": 906.48,
    "text": "where AI can write all that code,"
  },
  {
    "start": 906.48,
    "end": 909.9,
    "text": "make sure that all the\ndifferent modules work together,"
  },
  {
    "start": 909.9,
    "end": 914.04,
    "text": "extend the code in an\nerror-free way if needed,"
  },
  {
    "start": 914.04,
    "end": 917.22,
    "text": "and cover all the different niche, cases,"
  },
  {
    "start": 917.22,
    "end": 922.22,
    "text": "and specifications of those\ndifferent applications."
  },
  {
    "start": 922.29,
    "end": 925.68,
    "text": "Because of course, every\napplication is different"
  },
  {
    "start": 925.68,
    "end": 928.62,
    "text": "and has certain conditions\nthat must be met,"
  },
  {
    "start": 928.62,
    "end": 933.482,
    "text": "has certain specifications\nthat must be implemented."
  },
  {
    "start": 933.482,
    "end": 938.37,
    "text": "And AI doing all that in\na pretty error-free way,"
  },
  {
    "start": 938.37,
    "end": 942.06,
    "text": "in a way that's then\nmaintainable and extendable,"
  },
  {
    "start": 942.06,
    "end": 946.56,
    "text": "well, surprise me, but\nI'm really not convinced"
  },
  {
    "start": 946.56,
    "end": 950.61,
    "text": "that this is a world we'll\nbe living in anytime soon."
  },
  {
    "start": 950.61,
    "end": 953.91,
    "text": "I see AI as a tool that can help us,"
  },
  {
    "start": 953.91,
    "end": 955.65,
    "text": "that can write some code,"
  },
  {
    "start": 955.65,
    "end": 960.0,
    "text": "but writing entire applications\nin a reliable, good way,"
  },
  {
    "start": 960.0,
    "end": 961.17,
    "text": "I'm not so sure."
  },
  {
    "start": 961.17,
    "end": 964.44,
    "text": "And that then leads me to the last option,"
  },
  {
    "start": 964.44,
    "end": 968.16,
    "text": "this first possible\nfuture I outlined before,"
  },
  {
    "start": 968.16,
    "end": 972.72,
    "text": "where AI is mainly a tool for developers,"
  },
  {
    "start": 972.72,
    "end": 976.56,
    "text": "where it writes some code\nbut not all the code,"
  },
  {
    "start": 976.56,
    "end": 979.71,
    "text": "where we can use it to\nbecome more efficient."
  },
  {
    "start": 979.71,
    "end": 984.71,
    "text": "And I think that's the future\nwe'll have in the near future."
  },
  {
    "start": 985.11,
    "end": 988.8,
    "text": "And it's actually already\nthe present, you could say,"
  },
  {
    "start": 988.8,
    "end": 992.28,
    "text": "because of course we have\nGitHub Copilot and so on."
  },
  {
    "start": 992.28,
    "end": 996.9,
    "text": "And for me, personally,\nit made me more efficient,"
  },
  {
    "start": 996.9,
    "end": 1001.28,
    "text": "but not by getting rid\nof tasks I like to do,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1001.28,
    "end": 1004.55,
    "text": "but instead, by giving\nme smart suggestions,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1004.55,
    "end": 1008.33,
    "text": "by speeding up the process\nof writing boilerplate code,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1008.33,
    "end": 1011.3,
    "text": "and therefore by really allowing me"
  },
  {
    "start": 1011.3,
    "end": 1013.97,
    "text": "to get more done in less time."
  },
  {
    "start": 1013.97,
    "end": 1015.65,
    "text": "And that's the kicker here."
  },
  {
    "start": 1015.65,
    "end": 1017.6,
    "text": "Of course, you could now argue"
  },
  {
    "start": 1017.6,
    "end": 1020.48,
    "text": "that this will also replace developers."
  },
  {
    "start": 1020.48,
    "end": 1024.89,
    "text": "Because if fewer developers\ncan get the same work done"
  },
  {
    "start": 1024.89,
    "end": 1028.7,
    "text": "that previously was\ndone by more developers,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1028.7,
    "end": 1033.56,
    "text": "there's room to decrease the\nnumber of developers, right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 1033.56,
    "end": 1036.86,
    "text": "Yeah, maybe that is what\nwe'll see in the short term."
  },
  {
    "start": 1036.86,
    "end": 1040.07,
    "text": "But in the mid and long term, chances are,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1040.07,
    "end": 1044.9,
    "text": "as it has always been in\nthe history of humankind,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1044.9,
    "end": 1047.0,
    "text": "that we'll actually see more jobs"
  },
  {
    "start": 1047.0,
    "end": 1049.91,
    "text": "and more opportunities for people"
  },
  {
    "start": 1049.91,
    "end": 1052.16,
    "text": "because we have better tools."
  },
  {
    "start": 1052.16,
    "end": 1054.26,
    "text": "In our entire history,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1054.26,
    "end": 1057.89,
    "text": "we always kept inventing\nbetter and better tools,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1057.89,
    "end": 1061.25,
    "text": "and that allowed people\nto become more efficient."
  },
  {
    "start": 1061.25,
    "end": 1065.33,
    "text": "And maybe if one job then\nneeded less workforce,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1065.33,
    "end": 1066.98,
    "text": "that same workforce"
  },
  {
    "start": 1066.98,
    "end": 1070.7,
    "text": "was able to either move to a different job"
  },
  {
    "start": 1070.7,
    "end": 1074.33,
    "text": "or use those tools to innovate more,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1074.33,
    "end": 1077.6,
    "text": "to produce extra growth."
  },
  {
    "start": 1077.6,
    "end": 1081.29,
    "text": "And I think that is what we'll see here."
  },
  {
    "start": 1081.29,
    "end": 1084.59,
    "text": "If developers can be more efficient,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1084.59,
    "end": 1088.01,
    "text": "we might have more\nindustries and more companies"
  },
  {
    "start": 1088.01,
    "end": 1092.33,
    "text": "moving into the digital space\nand building applications."
  },
  {
    "start": 1092.33,
    "end": 1094.91,
    "text": "Because a company that previously"
  },
  {
    "start": 1094.91,
    "end": 1097.46,
    "text": "might have not been able to afford"
  },
  {
    "start": 1097.46,
    "end": 1100.37,
    "text": "a developer staff of 20 developers,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1100.37,
    "end": 1105.23,
    "text": "might now be able to expand its business"
  },
  {
    "start": 1105.23,
    "end": 1108.17,
    "text": "by building applications\nthat can now be built"
  },
  {
    "start": 1108.17,
    "end": 1109.91,
    "text": "with only 10 developers."
  },
  {
    "start": 1109.91,
    "end": 1112.91,
    "text": "So it opens up new opportunities."
  },
  {
    "start": 1112.91,
    "end": 1115.43,
    "text": "And of course, all the\nopens up opportunities"
  },
  {
    "start": 1115.43,
    "end": 1117.71,
    "text": "for individual developers."
  },
  {
    "start": 1117.71,
    "end": 1119.54,
    "text": "Starting your own business,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1119.54,
    "end": 1122.84,
    "text": "your own software as a\nservice business, for example,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1122.84,
    "end": 1125.84,
    "text": "is probably going to get a lot easier"
  },
  {
    "start": 1125.84,
    "end": 1128.9,
    "text": "because you can now get\nmore work done on your own"
  },
  {
    "start": 1128.9,
    "end": 1133.22,
    "text": "and you don't need to hire a\nsecond or a third developer"
  },
  {
    "start": 1133.22,
    "end": 1135.74,
    "text": "to build your initial prototype."
  },
  {
    "start": 1135.74,
    "end": 1138.68,
    "text": "So, I'm not even sure if it will lead"
  },
  {
    "start": 1138.68,
    "end": 1141.8,
    "text": "to a decrease in developer workforce."
  },
  {
    "start": 1141.8,
    "end": 1143.27,
    "text": "Maybe in the short term."
  },
  {
    "start": 1143.27,
    "end": 1145.22,
    "text": "But I personally don't think"
  },
  {
    "start": 1145.22,
    "end": 1148.19,
    "text": "that it will do that in\nthe mid and long term."
  },
  {
    "start": 1148.19,
    "end": 1151.28,
    "text": "Now, ultimately, of\ncourse, like everyone else,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1151.28,
    "end": 1153.92,
    "text": "no matter how convinced they may sound,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1153.92,
    "end": 1157.16,
    "text": "nobody can tell you with certainty"
  },
  {
    "start": 1157.16,
    "end": 1159.23,
    "text": "what the future will hold."
  },
  {
    "start": 1159.23,
    "end": 1163.28,
    "text": "We can only take a look at\nthe past and see that there,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1163.28,
    "end": 1167.09,
    "text": "we always had new tools\nand new technologies,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1167.09,
    "end": 1169.67,
    "text": "and they always change things,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1169.67,
    "end": 1171.35,
    "text": "but they also"
  },
  {
    "start": 1171.35,
    "end": 1175.07,
    "text": "pretty much always changed\nthings to the better,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1175.07,
    "end": 1176.72,
    "text": "made us more efficient,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1176.72,
    "end": 1178.91,
    "text": "opened up more opportunities."
  },
  {
    "start": 1178.91,
    "end": 1180.86,
    "text": "And therefore,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1180.86,
    "end": 1184.82,
    "text": "I'm very positive about\nthe future as a developer."
  },
  {
    "start": 1184.82,
    "end": 1188.33,
    "text": "And I think that AI can be an amazing tool"
  },
  {
    "start": 1188.33,
    "end": 1191.39,
    "text": "to accelerate us as a developer,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1191.39,
    "end": 1192.71,
    "text": "to make us more efficient,"
  },
  {
    "start": 1192.71,
    "end": 1195.983,
    "text": "and give us more opportunities\nthat we can leverage."
  }
]