[
  {
    "start": 0.06,
    "end": 14.98,
    "text": "Provided by Thomas Allgaier and Franus, based on the most relevant posts on LinkedIn about defense tech in CWO two and O three, Franus is a B to B market research company that equips product and strategy teams with market and competitive intelligence across the defense industry."
  },
  {
    "start": 15.26,
    "end": 17.08,
    "text": "And welcome back to the deep dive."
  },
  {
    "start": 17.24,
    "end": 22.74,
    "text": "We are looking at a really high intensity window today, calendar weeks two and three of twenty twenty six."
  },
  {
    "start": 23.14,
    "end": 29.44,
    "text": "Honestly, looking at the intelligence from the last couple of weeks, it really feels like the industry has hit some kind of pivot point."
  },
  {
    "start": 29.86,
    "end": 33.6,
    "text": "For years, we've talked about the potential of defense"
  },
  {
    "start": 33.68,
    "end": 33.9,
    "text": "tech."
  },
  {
    "start": 34.04,
    "end": 34.22,
    "text": "Right."
  },
  {
    "start": 34.42,
    "end": 38.48,
    "text": "But now, it feels like we're actually seeing the gears start to grind into motion."
  },
  {
    "start": 38.56,
    "end": 43.6,
    "text": "It's the shift from, can we design this thing to, can we build two thousand of them by next year?"
  },
  {
    "start": 43.82,
    "end": 46.76,
    "text": "And you can see this tension playing out all over the feed."
  },
  {
    "start": 46.86,
    "end": 47.12,
    "text": "Oh, so."
  },
  {
    "start": 47.42,
    "end": 53.54,
    "text": "Well, on one side, you have the industrial giants, you know, the primes, flexing muscles we haven't seen them use in decades."
  },
  {
    "start": 53.78,
    "end": 53.86,
    "text": "And"
  },
  {
    "start": 53.94,
    "end": 54.36,
    "text": "on the other,"
  },
  {
    "start": 54.66,
    "end": 57.9,
    "text": "the startup ecosystem is just rewriting the physics of procurement."
  },
  {
    "start": 58.46,
    "end": 61.46,
    "text": "It's a real collision of cultures and budgets."
  },
  {
    "start": 61.66,
    "end": 63.08,
    "text": "and well, battlefields."
  },
  {
    "start": 63.72,
    "end": 66.7,
    "text": "We've got five key clusters to get through today."
  },
  {
    "start": 66.8,
    "end": 66.86,
    "text": "Okay."
  },
  {
    "start": 67.4,
    "end": 77.32,
    "text": "We're going to look at this explosion in industrial capacity, the reality of AI moving into the plumbing of warfare, the drone versus counter drone arms race."
  },
  {
    "start": 77.36,
    "end": 78.56,
    "text": "Which is escalating fast."
  },
  {
    "start": 78.66,
    "end": 79.06,
    "text": "It is."
  },
  {
    "start": 79.74,
    "end": 84.76,
    "text": "Then the economics of laser weapons and finally the leadership strategies trying to make sense of it all."
  },
  {
    "start": 84.94,
    "end": 87.08,
    "text": "There's a lot of signal on the noise these past two weeks."
  },
  {
    "start": 87.12,
    "end": 87.7,
    "text": "Let's get into it."
  },
  {
    "start": 87.92,
    "end": 89.08,
    "text": "So we have to start with the hardware."
  },
  {
    "start": 89.48,
    "end": 92.8,
    "text": "the capital, the ecosystem, the industrial base."
  },
  {
    "start": 92.9,
    "end": 98.54,
    "text": "I mean, for a long time, the critique of the Western defense industry was that we build Ferraris when we really need Fords."
  },
  {
    "start": 98.68,
    "end": 101.3,
    "text": "Exquisite R&D, but brittle supply chains."
  },
  {
    "start": 101.38,
    "end": 101.86,
    "text": "Exactly."
  },
  {
    "start": 101.98,
    "end": 108.98,
    "text": "But looking at the updates from mid-January, specifically from Lockheed Martin, that narrative is being forcefully corrected."
  },
  {
    "start": 109.46,
    "end": 109.74,
    "text": "It is."
  },
  {
    "start": 109.98,
    "end": 111.32,
    "text": "The numbers are pretty startling."
  },
  {
    "start": 111.4,
    "end": 111.54,
    "text": "Yeah."
  },
  {
    "start": 111.6,
    "end": 119.98,
    "text": "If you saw the updates from Tim Cahill and Daniel Nimblett at Lockheed, they dropped a figure on the Passy III MSC that really sets the tone for twenty twenty"
  },
  {
    "start": 120.24,
    "end": 120.32,
    "text": "six."
  },
  {
    "start": 120.36,
    "end": 125.3,
    "text": "So just for context, the PAXY three MSE is the high velocity interceptor for the Patriot system, right?"
  },
  {
    "start": 125.58,
    "end": 129.199,
    "text": "Yeah, it's the bullet that hits the incoming bullet, a critical defensive asset."
  },
  {
    "start": 129.28,
    "end": 129.52,
    "text": "And for"
  },
  {
    "start": 129.62,
    "end": 133.56,
    "text": "years, production was pretty steady, but you know, relatively"
  },
  {
    "start": 133.74,
    "end": 133.82,
    "text": "low."
  },
  {
    "start": 134.04,
    "end": 134.42,
    "text": "It was."
  },
  {
    "start": 135.06,
    "end": 140.9,
    "text": "They have now reached an agreement to ramp production from six hundred a year to two thousand a year."
  },
  {
    "start": 141.34,
    "end": 142.36,
    "text": "over the next seven years."
  },
  {
    "start": 142.62,
    "end": 142.92,
    "text": "That's"
  },
  {
    "start": 143.08,
    "end": 144.64,
    "text": "more than a three x increase."
  },
  {
    "start": 144.82,
    "end": 145.62,
    "text": "It's massive."
  },
  {
    "start": 145.72,
    "end": 145.84,
    "text": "Yeah."
  },
  {
    "start": 145.98,
    "end": 149.06,
    "text": "And what's interesting here is that this isn't just about working faster."
  },
  {
    "start": 149.48,
    "end": 151.92,
    "text": "They're calling it the acquisition transformation strategy."
  },
  {
    "start": 152.2,
    "end": 153.84,
    "text": "So they're redesigning the whole process."
  },
  {
    "start": 153.94,
    "end": 154.72,
    "text": "The whole factory floor."
  },
  {
    "start": 155.44,
    "end": 165.02,
    "text": "It signals a move away from just in time efficiency, which is great for the civilian world, to just in case capacity, which is what you need for a major conflict."
  },
  {
    "start": 165.42,
    "end": 168.9,
    "text": "And we saw a similar flex at the F- Thirty-Five plant in Fort Worth."
  },
  {
    "start": 169.28,
    "end": 175.48,
    "text": "Jim Tacklett and Greg Ulmer hosted the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseff, and the headline wasn't just the visit."
  },
  {
    "start": 175.64,
    "end": 176.3,
    "text": "It was the numbers."
  },
  {
    "start": 176.42,
    "end": 177.06,
    "text": "It was the numbers."
  },
  {
    "start": 177.38,
    "end": 180.94,
    "text": "They delivered a hundred and ninety-one jets in twenty twenty-five."
  },
  {
    "start": 181.0,
    "end": 181.78,
    "text": "A new record."
  },
  {
    "start": 182.18,
    "end": 185.0,
    "text": "And the vibe of those posts is very specific."
  },
  {
    "start": 185.08,
    "end": 186.56,
    "text": "It's not we're trying our best."
  },
  {
    "start": 186.8,
    "end": 187.82,
    "text": "It's we are the arsenal."
  },
  {
    "start": 188.26,
    "end": 191.56,
    "text": "The message from the prime seems to be, you want mass."
  },
  {
    "start": 192.54,
    "end": 194.22,
    "text": "We're the only ones who can actually deliver it."
  },
  {
    "start": 194.82,
    "end": 195.02,
    "text": "Right."
  },
  {
    "start": 195.06,
    "end": 196.44,
    "text": "That's the old steel argument."
  },
  {
    "start": 196.62,
    "end": 200.9,
    "text": "But then you flip the coin to the venture backside and the philosophy is just completely different."
  },
  {
    "start": 201.62,
    "end": 204.86,
    "text": "Eves Augustus from Stark wrote a brilliant reflection on this."
  },
  {
    "start": 205.34,
    "end": 213.52,
    "text": "He moved from a prime to a VC backed firm and he used this great analogy of the cargo ship versus the hydroplane."
  },
  {
    "start": 213.6,
    "end": 214.26,
    "text": "I love that visual."
  },
  {
    "start": 214.66,
    "end": 217.86,
    "text": "The prime is this cargo ship, immense capacity, huge momentum."
  },
  {
    "start": 218.14,
    "end": 218.22,
    "text": "Yeah."
  },
  {
    "start": 218.52,
    "end": 220.78,
    "text": "But it takes five miles to even turn the rudder."
  },
  {
    "start": 220.98,
    "end": 221.46,
    "text": "Exactly."
  },
  {
    "start": 221.76,
    "end": 224.08,
    "text": "Whereas the VC bag startup is the hydroplane."
  },
  {
    "start": 224.54,
    "end": 225.48,
    "text": "It skims the surface."
  },
  {
    "start": 225.56,
    "end": 226.18,
    "text": "It's agile."
  },
  {
    "start": 226.22,
    "end": 227.02,
    "text": "It's built for speed."
  },
  {
    "start": 228.12,
    "end": 232.26,
    "text": "Eves points out that in his new world, they're taking products to TRL seven in months."
  },
  {
    "start": 232.62,
    "end": 233.48,
    "text": "Let's pause on that for a second."
  },
  {
    "start": 233.52,
    "end": 234.04,
    "text": "TRL seven."
  },
  {
    "start": 234.7,
    "end": 236.2,
    "text": "That's technology readiness level seven."
  },
  {
    "start": 236.4,
    "end": 239.32,
    "text": "So we're talking about a prototype demonstrated in an operational environment."
  },
  {
    "start": 239.5,
    "end": 239.64,
    "text": "Right."
  },
  {
    "start": 239.72,
    "end": 240.68,
    "text": "Not just on a lab bench."
  },
  {
    "start": 240.82,
    "end": 241.82,
    "text": "It's ready to get dirty."
  },
  {
    "start": 241.96,
    "end": 245.56,
    "text": "And that speed is vital because the threat changes weekly, doesn't it?"
  },
  {
    "start": 245.78,
    "end": 246.2,
    "text": "It does."
  },
  {
    "start": 247.16,
    "end": 251.94,
    "text": "You can't spend ten years building a counter drone system if the drones themselves change every month."
  },
  {
    "start": 252.24,
    "end": 255.3,
    "text": "Mark Whitefeld from ARX Robotics really emphasized this."
  },
  {
    "start": 255.44,
    "end": 257.8,
    "text": "They just partnered with Daimler Truck AG."
  },
  {
    "start": 258.2,
    "end": 259.279,
    "text": "That's an interesting pair."
  },
  {
    "start": 259.56,
    "end": 261.839,
    "text": "A robotics startup and a legacy truck maker."
  },
  {
    "start": 262.06,
    "end": 265.1,
    "text": "It is, and Mark made this point that it's not about the press release."
  },
  {
    "start": 265.28,
    "end": 268.08,
    "text": "It's about the hard work that is rarely visible."
  },
  {
    "start": 268.3,
    "end": 272.28,
    "text": "It's about merging that hydroplane agility with the cargo ship's scale."
  },
  {
    "start": 272.42,
    "end": 272.62,
    "text": "But..."
  },
  {
    "start": 273.3,
    "end": 275.14,
    "text": "There is a bit of a wet blanket on all this."
  },
  {
    "start": 275.62,
    "end": 276.42,
    "text": "And that's the budget."
  },
  {
    "start": 276.68,
    "end": 277.88,
    "text": "Someone has to sign the checks."
  },
  {
    "start": 278.78,
    "end": 283.46,
    "text": "Luca Leone shared a pretty sobering analysis of Britain's twenty twenty five defense review."
  },
  {
    "start": 283.62,
    "end": 284.96,
    "text": "Yeah, the reality check."
  },
  {
    "start": 285.26,
    "end": 289.02,
    "text": "Luca points out a twenty four billion funding gap over the next decade for the UK."
  },
  {
    "start": 290.02,
    "end": 294.84,
    "text": "He warns that the review could just become a statement of intent instead of actual combat capacity."
  },
  {
    "start": 294.96,
    "end": 298.6,
    "text": "And he noted that conventional force spending is actually falling in the near term."
  },
  {
    "start": 298.78,
    "end": 299.14,
    "text": "Correct."
  },
  {
    "start": 299.4,
    "end": 300.38,
    "text": "Artillery stocks are thin."
  },
  {
    "start": 301.0,
    "end": 306.02,
    "text": "So while we're celebrating Lockheed ramping up missile production, there's a real question in Europe about solvency."
  },
  {
    "start": 306.76,
    "end": 308.28,
    "text": "Innovation requires solvency."
  },
  {
    "start": 308.54,
    "end": 308.78,
    "text": "That's"
  },
  {
    "start": 308.86,
    "end": 309.98,
    "text": "the classic defense dilemma."
  },
  {
    "start": 310.78,
    "end": 313.98,
    "text": "Okay, so we have the hardware scaling up, but we also need the software to run it."
  },
  {
    "start": 314.64,
    "end": 318.28,
    "text": "And this brings us to our second cluster, AI and autonomy."
  },
  {
    "start": 319.28,
    "end": 326.24,
    "text": "And the conversation has thankfully moved past the, you know, the Skynet stuff into what I'd call industrial AI."
  },
  {
    "start": 326.54,
    "end": 328.52,
    "text": "It's becoming the plumbing of the war machine."
  },
  {
    "start": 329.1,
    "end": 332.14,
    "text": "It might sound boring, but it's revolutionary for the operator."
  },
  {
    "start": 332.86,
    "end": 336.28,
    "text": "A perfect example is what Preston Feinberg shared about Palantir and the Navy."
  },
  {
    "start": 336.54,
    "end": 337.7,
    "text": "Ah yes, the ship OS."
  },
  {
    "start": 338.04,
    "end": 339.32,
    "text": "Ship operating system."
  },
  {
    "start": 339.48,
    "end": 342.9,
    "text": "So think of it as a digital twin for the entire shipbuilding process."
  },
  {
    "start": 343.22,
    "end": 347.72,
    "text": "which is incredibly complex, thousands of suppliers, millions of parts."
  },
  {
    "start": 348.0,
    "end": 351.96,
    "text": "And instead of static spreadsheets, ShipOS uses AI to connect everyone."
  },
  {
    "start": 352.56,
    "end": 358.76,
    "text": "So if a vow is late from a factory in Ohio, the system automatically reorganizes the work schedule in the shipyard."
  },
  {
    "start": 358.9,
    "end": 359.38,
    "text": "Precisely."
  },
  {
    "start": 359.64,
    "end": 362.36,
    "text": "So workers aren't just standing around waiting, it's dynamic."
  },
  {
    "start": 363.14,
    "end": 366.78,
    "text": "And Feinberg notes it uses a shared savings contract, which is clever."
  },
  {
    "start": 367.16,
    "end": 368.04,
    "text": "Palantir gets paid."
  },
  {
    "start": 368.38,
    "end": 369.88,
    "text": "based on the efficiency they deliver."
  },
  {
    "start": 370.02,
    "end": 371.24,
    "text": "That aligns the incentives."
  },
  {
    "start": 371.34,
    "end": 371.74,
    "text": "Exactly."
  },
  {
    "start": 371.94,
    "end": 373.04,
    "text": "Okay, that's the back office."
  },
  {
    "start": 373.44,
    "end": 375.14,
    "text": "But what about the front line, the kill chain?"
  },
  {
    "start": 375.74,
    "end": 379.8,
    "text": "We saw a fascinating update from Victor Mengen about the MAV and SMART system."
  },
  {
    "start": 380.1,
    "end": 382.76,
    "text": "This is where AI really changes the speed of battle."
  },
  {
    "start": 383.26,
    "end": 388.46,
    "text": "They used this system to analyze satellite imagery of an airbase in Kaleningrad."
  },
  {
    "start": 389.0,
    "end": 391.36,
    "text": "The AI identified and classified Su--------------------------------------------------------------------------."
  },
  {
    "start": 392.74,
    "end": 393.64,
    "text": "And the time to result."
  },
  {
    "start": 393.82,
    "end": 394.48,
    "text": "Thirty seconds."
  },
  {
    "start": 394.64,
    "end": 394.94,
    "text": "That's..."
  },
  {
    "start": 395.82,
    "end": 396.72,
    "text": "That is wild."
  },
  {
    "start": 396.82,
    "end": 399.38,
    "text": "A human analyst would take hours, maybe days."
  },
  {
    "start": 399.66,
    "end": 399.84,
    "text": "Right."
  },
  {
    "start": 399.96,
    "end": 404.76,
    "text": "The AI flags it, classifies it, and puts it on a commander screen in half a minute."
  },
  {
    "start": 404.9,
    "end": 406.58,
    "text": "That just compresses the whole decision loop."
  },
  {
    "start": 406.78,
    "end": 408.38,
    "text": "And the market is clearly buying into this."
  },
  {
    "start": 408.78,
    "end": 413.22,
    "text": "MOAD-M posted that Harmitant AI raised a two hundred million dollar Series B."
  },
  {
    "start": 413.66,
    "end": 416.32,
    "text": "And that was led by Dissalt Aviation, which is significant."
  },
  {
    "start": 416.54,
    "end": 417.8,
    "text": "Dissalt makes the Rafaal jet."
  },
  {
    "start": 418.12,
    "end": 422.2,
    "text": "For them to lead around in AI startup shows they know the future isn't just the metal frame."
  },
  {
    "start": 422.44,
    "end": 424.58,
    "text": "It's the autonomous mission systems incited."
  },
  {
    "start": 425.04,
    "end": 428.7,
    "text": "It connects to an interview Shashank Joshi did with Torsten Reel from Helsing."
  },
  {
    "start": 428.76,
    "end": 430.06,
    "text": "They talked about precise mass."
  },
  {
    "start": 430.4,
    "end": 435.22,
    "text": "The idea that AI allows you to control swarms of systems, not just one."
  },
  {
    "start": 436.08,
    "end": 438.38,
    "text": "But Reel also touched on the ethical dimension."
  },
  {
    "start": 439.08,
    "end": 441.86,
    "text": "Not in a preachy way, but as a design challenge."
  },
  {
    "start": 442.1,
    "end": 442.42,
    "text": "Meaning."
  },
  {
    "start": 443.24,
    "end": 448.9,
    "text": "Well, if the speed warfare exceeds human reaction time, how do you maintain meaningful human control?"
  },
  {
    "start": 449.78,
    "end": 452.0,
    "text": "It's a problem democracies have to get right."
  },
  {
    "start": 452.44,
    "end": 459.54,
    "text": "That speed issue leads us directly into theme three, the drone war, or really the multi-domain autonomous war."
  },
  {
    "start": 459.76,
    "end": 464.98,
    "text": "Right, because as Matt McCran from Endorbrel pointed out, we're making a mistake if we only look at the sky."
  },
  {
    "start": 465.24,
    "end": 465.34,
    "text": "His"
  },
  {
    "start": 465.44,
    "end": 466.76,
    "text": "take on counter UAS?"
  },
  {
    "start": 467.0,
    "end": 469.18,
    "text": "He says we're too fixated on aerial drones."
  },
  {
    "start": 469.32,
    "end": 471.34,
    "text": "Which seems a little counterintuitive given the news."
  },
  {
    "start": 471.4,
    "end": 471.48,
    "text": "But"
  },
  {
    "start": 471.56,
    "end": 472.38,
    "text": "look at the Black Sea."
  },
  {
    "start": 472.72,
    "end": 476.98,
    "text": "The Ukrainians changed naval warfare with unmanned surface vessels, USVs."
  },
  {
    "start": 477.2,
    "end": 481.18,
    "text": "My crans point is that if your defense system only looks up, you're going to get hit from the ground or the sea."
  },
  {
    "start": 481.62,
    "end": 483.14,
    "text": "The threat is three hundred and sixty degrees"
  },
  {
    "start": 483.22,
    "end": 483.36,
    "text": "now."
  },
  {
    "start": 483.52,
    "end": 485.38,
    "text": "And the threats that are in the sky are getting nastier."
  },
  {
    "start": 486.02,
    "end": 489.06,
    "text": "Benjamin Wolba highlighted a new Russian unit called Rubicon."
  },
  {
    "start": 489.22,
    "end": 490.34,
    "text": "This one really caught my attention."
  },
  {
    "start": 490.74,
    "end": 493.64,
    "text": "Yeah, this isn't some militia with duct taped consumer drones."
  },
  {
    "start": 494.18,
    "end": 498.96,
    "text": "This is a state backed center using fiber optic drones and Starlink equipped UAVs."
  },
  {
    "start": 500.08,
    "end": 504.68,
    "text": "But the phrase will be used that stuck with me is they have zero patience for aesthetics."
  },
  {
    "start": 505.02,
    "end": 506.54,
    "text": "Meaning they don't care if it looks pretty?"
  },
  {
    "start": 506.78,
    "end": 508.16,
    "text": "They don't care about polish or paint."
  },
  {
    "start": 508.22,
    "end": 508.96,
    "text": "They just care about."
  },
  {
    "start": 509.26,
    "end": 510.7,
    "text": "does it explode and is it cheap?"
  },
  {
    "start": 511.36,
    "end": 512.299,
    "text": "It's brutal efficiency."
  },
  {
    "start": 512.58,
    "end": 515.9,
    "text": "And that efficiency is evolving into air-to-air combat."
  },
  {
    "start": 516.659,
    "end": 522.02,
    "text": "Aviv Bar-Zohar spotted the Grand UAV carrying a heat-seeking missile."
  },
  {
    "start": 522.179,
    "end": 524.54,
    "text": "A drone hunting other drones or helicopters."
  },
  {
    "start": 524.86,
    "end": 526.58,
    "text": "that completely changes the airspace."
  },
  {
    "start": 526.74,
    "end": 532.62,
    "text": "If a cheap drone can take out a manned helicopter, the risk calculation for sending in pilots just goes through the roof."
  },
  {
    "start": 532.68,
    "end": 532.74,
    "text": "We"
  },
  {
    "start": 532.84,
    "end": 534.3,
    "text": "are seeing the industry respond though."
  },
  {
    "start": 534.62,
    "end": 540.74,
    "text": "Penny Berger and Oleg Vornek reported that drone shield landed an eight point two million dollar military contract."
  },
  {
    "start": 541.38,
    "end": 542.3,
    "text": "So the money is flowing."
  },
  {
    "start": 542.58,
    "end": 544.46,
    "text": "And the big players are adapting their heavy hitters."
  },
  {
    "start": 545.04,
    "end": 550.36,
    "text": "Tom Kavanaugh from Lockheed Martin showed the JGM the joint air to ground missile launching vertically."
  },
  {
    "start": 550.7,
    "end": 552.2,
    "text": "Why is vertical launch a big deal there?"
  },
  {
    "start": 552.48,
    "end": 554.9,
    "text": "It means you don't need to point the launcher at the target."
  },
  {
    "start": 555.32,
    "end": 559.96,
    "text": "You can stick it on a truck, launch it straight up, and it can turn to hit a threat from any direction."
  },
  {
    "start": 560.46,
    "end": 561.98,
    "text": "They're pitching it for counter UAS."
  },
  {
    "start": 562.32,
    "end": 564.76,
    "text": "But doesn't that bring us back to the math problem?"
  },
  {
    "start": 565.16,
    "end": 567.1,
    "text": "A JAGM missile is expensive."
  },
  {
    "start": 567.48,
    "end": 568.38,
    "text": "A drone is cheap."
  },
  {
    "start": 568.7,
    "end": 570.76,
    "text": "Are we just shooting Rolexes at Cassios?"
  },
  {
    "start": 570.96,
    "end": 571.64,
    "text": "Exactly."
  },
  {
    "start": 572.12,
    "end": 576.2,
    "text": "And that economic disparity is the single biggest driver for our fourth theme."
  },
  {
    "start": 577.46,
    "end": 578.74,
    "text": "The search for a cheaper bullet."
  },
  {
    "start": 580.04,
    "end": 582.14,
    "text": "Specifically, Directed energy."
  },
  {
    "start": 583.06,
    "end": 583.46,
    "text": "Laters."
  },
  {
    "start": 583.88,
    "end": 587.12,
    "text": "Matt K posted an incredibly detailed deep dive on this."
  },
  {
    "start": 587.22,
    "end": 588.82,
    "text": "He calls it the economic calculus."
  },
  {
    "start": 588.86,
    "end": 588.92,
    "text": "It's"
  },
  {
    "start": 589.2,
    "end": 591.12,
    "text": "the only math that really works in the long run."
  },
  {
    "start": 591.9,
    "end": 593.64,
    "text": "A sea viper missile can cost millions."
  },
  {
    "start": 594.12,
    "end": 596.76,
    "text": "Matt K puts the cost of a laser shot at about ten pounds."
  },
  {
    "start": 596.8,
    "end": 598.06,
    "text": "Ten pounds, that's less than lunch."
  },
  {
    "start": 598.3,
    "end": 598.72,
    "text": "Exactly."
  },
  {
    "start": 599.2,
    "end": 601.26,
    "text": "He highlighted the UK's dragon fire system."
  },
  {
    "start": 601.56,
    "end": 604.82,
    "text": "which supposedly hit a target the size of a coin from a kilometer away."
  },
  {
    "start": 605.52,
    "end": 608.58,
    "text": "And the US Navy's heliosystem is already going onto ships."
  },
  {
    "start": 608.64,
    "end": 611.26,
    "text": "So if they're so cheap and effective, why aren't they everywhere?"
  },
  {
    "start": 611.5,
    "end": 613.04,
    "text": "Matt Kay mentioned blooming."
  },
  {
    "start": 613.38,
    "end": 614.1,
    "text": "Right, blooming."
  },
  {
    "start": 614.88,
    "end": 615.74,
    "text": "It's a physics problem."
  },
  {
    "start": 616.22,
    "end": 618.9,
    "text": "The atmosphere has dust, moisture, fog."
  },
  {
    "start": 619.62,
    "end": 624.5,
    "text": "A high energy laser hits those particles and heats the air, which scatters the beam."
  },
  {
    "start": 624.92,
    "end": 625.84,
    "text": "It loses focus."
  },
  {
    "start": 626.28,
    "end": 627.56,
    "text": "So it's a weather dependent weapon."
  },
  {
    "start": 628.12,
    "end": 629.4,
    "text": "And then there's the Red Queens race"
  },
  {
    "start": 629.64,
    "end": 630.84,
    "text": "from Alice in Wonderland."
  },
  {
    "start": 630.96,
    "end": 632.98,
    "text": "You have to run just to stay in the same place."
  },
  {
    "start": 633.02,
    "end": 634.28,
    "text": "Yeah, we build a laser."
  },
  {
    "start": 634.68,
    "end": 636.86,
    "text": "The enemy puts a reflective coating on the drone."
  },
  {
    "start": 637.26,
    "end": 639.04,
    "text": "It's a constant technological tussle."
  },
  {
    "start": 639.16,
    "end": 640.9,
    "text": "So lasers aren't a silver bullet."
  },
  {
    "start": 641.12,
    "end": 642.68,
    "text": "No, they're part of a layered defense."
  },
  {
    "start": 643.24,
    "end": 649.78,
    "text": "You use the ten pound laser for the cheap drone swarm and you save the million pound missile for the supersonic cruise missile."
  },
  {
    "start": 650.02,
    "end": 654.92,
    "text": "Right, which Robert Lightfoot noted Lockheed is building eighteen new tracking satellites"
  },
  {
    "start": 655.02,
    "end": 655.24,
    "text": "for."
  },
  {
    "start": 655.6,
    "end": 662.84,
    "text": "And John Hill posted about the LRASM, the long range anti-ship missile, which is designed to think for itself if it loses connection."
  },
  {
    "start": 663.26,
    "end": 664.66,
    "text": "The high end is getting smarter too."
  },
  {
    "start": 664.88,
    "end": 664.94,
    "text": "And"
  },
  {
    "start": 665.0,
    "end": 667.98,
    "text": "I also want to quickly mention Stephen Sturges's note that Waldo."
  },
  {
    "start": 668.14,
    "end": 671.5,
    "text": "three point oh a free AI for drones is back online."
  },
  {
    "start": 671.88,
    "end": 675.68,
    "text": "It just shows the barrier to entry for smart drone tech is incredibly low."
  },
  {
    "start": 675.9,
    "end": 676.08,
    "text": "That's"
  },
  {
    "start": 676.14,
    "end": 676.68,
    "text": "a great point."
  },
  {
    "start": 676.74,
    "end": 678.18,
    "text": "It's happening at both ends of the spectrum."
  },
  {
    "start": 678.5,
    "end": 682.08,
    "text": "Okay, so we've covered factories, AI, drones and lasers."
  },
  {
    "start": 682.56,
    "end": 685.66,
    "text": "But none of this matters if the doctrine, the strategy is broken."
  },
  {
    "start": 686.42,
    "end": 688.1,
    "text": "This brings us to our final cluster."
  },
  {
    "start": 688.96,
    "end": 689.5,
    "text": "Leadership."
  },
  {
    "start": 689.94,
    "end": 694.62,
    "text": "And there's some really sharp criticism this week about whether we are actually battle proving our investments."
  },
  {
    "start": 695.1,
    "end": 700.78,
    "text": "Richard William had a very provocative post about the Royal Navy's Proteus helicopter."
  },
  {
    "start": 700.94,
    "end": 702.3,
    "text": "The unmanned helicopter program."
  },
  {
    "start": 702.46,
    "end": 702.8,
    "text": "Yes."
  },
  {
    "start": 703.4,
    "end": 704.88,
    "text": "It costs about sixty million pounds."
  },
  {
    "start": 705.0,
    "end": 706.84,
    "text": "It flew, so it's a technical success."
  },
  {
    "start": 707.6,
    "end": 710.72,
    "text": "But William asks the hard question, is it scalable?"
  },
  {
    "start": 711.36,
    "end": 714.38,
    "text": "If a drone costs sixty million, can you afford to lose it?"
  },
  {
    "start": 714.64,
    "end": 717.24,
    "text": "And if you can't afford to lose it, it's not really expendable, is it?"
  },
  {
    "start": 717.38,
    "end": 717.96,
    "text": "Precisely."
  },
  {
    "start": 718.12,
    "end": 720.78,
    "text": "He argues we need cheap mass, not unmanned luxury."
  },
  {
    "start": 721.48,
    "end": 725.22,
    "text": "You can contract that with a report from a TNL's at the NRW summit in Germany."
  },
  {
    "start": 725.46,
    "end": 725.54,
    "text": "What"
  },
  {
    "start": 725.58,
    "end": 726.16,
    "text": "did he find?"
  },
  {
    "start": 726.74,
    "end": 732.38,
    "text": "He pointed out that while Germany is investing billions in defense, less than one percent is designated for unmanned systems."
  },
  {
    "start": 732.64,
    "end": 734.22,
    "text": "Less than one percent in twenty"
  },
  {
    "start": 734.66,
    "end": 734.86,
    "text": "twenty six."
  },
  {
    "start": 734.9,
    "end": 735.48,
    "text": "It's shocking."
  },
  {
    "start": 735.9,
    "end": 737.28,
    "text": "He says they lack battle proving."
  },
  {
    "start": 737.68,
    "end": 743.4,
    "text": "You can't understand modern war if you aren't testing these systems in the mud in the chaos of electronic warfare."
  },
  {
    "start": 743.64,
    "end": 743.76,
    "text": "Which"
  },
  {
    "start": 743.82,
    "end": 745.72,
    "text": "is exactly what Ukraine is getting right."
  },
  {
    "start": 746.16,
    "end": 750.8,
    "text": "German Stelmak posted about Ukraine's new defense minister, Mikhail Fedorov."
  },
  {
    "start": 751.24,
    "end": 752.68,
    "text": "His strategy is fascinating."
  },
  {
    "start": 752.9,
    "end": 753.86,
    "text": "Trust is the currency."
  },
  {
    "start": 754.3,
    "end": 754.96,
    "text": "That's his line."
  },
  {
    "start": 755.1,
    "end": 755.22,
    "text": "He's"
  },
  {
    "start": 755.28,
    "end": 759.28,
    "text": "basically treating the Ministry of Defense like a Silicon Valley tech giant."
  },
  {
    "start": 759.84,
    "end": 761.04,
    "text": "Defense tech first."
  },
  {
    "start": 761.82,
    "end": 767.24,
    "text": "He's digitizing the paper chaos and creating career ladders for tech talent in the military."
  },
  {
    "start": 767.44,
    "end": 770.8,
    "text": "It's about mobilizing the talent base, not just the industrial base."
  },
  {
    "start": 771.38,
    "end": 777.12,
    "text": "Pascal M. noted something similar with the Swiss Army's focus on the Sensor Intel Command Effect Network."
  },
  {
    "start": 777.48,
    "end": 781.26,
    "text": "Which brings us to a final, perfect thought on strategy from Benjamin Tallis."
  },
  {
    "start": 781.58,
    "end": 783.92,
    "text": "Technology does not equal transformation."
  },
  {
    "start": 784.0,
    "end": 784.56,
    "text": "That's the quote."
  },
  {
    "start": 784.84,
    "end": 786.3,
    "text": "You can buy all the best tech in the world."
  },
  {
    "start": 786.98,
    "end": 793.84,
    "text": "But if your organization is stuck in nineteen ninety, if you can't share data, if you can't fail fast, you will lose."
  },
  {
    "start": 794.12,
    "end": 795.06,
    "text": "It's a lot to digest."
  },
  {
    "start": 795.22,
    "end": 795.28,
    "text": "It"
  },
  {
    "start": 795.34,
    "end": 795.48,
    "text": "is."
  },
  {
    "start": 795.84,
    "end": 800.94,
    "text": "From the factory floors in Fort Worth to the laser labs in the UK, the machine is definitely moving."
  },
  {
    "start": 801.34,
    "end": 805.54,
    "text": "I think the takeaway for you, the listener, is that the experimentation phase is ending."
  },
  {
    "start": 805.94,
    "end": 808.12,
    "text": "We are now entering the industrialization phase."
  },
  {
    "start": 808.42,
    "end": 811.64,
    "text": "The toys are being put away and the tools are being engaged."
  },
  {
    "start": 811.9,
    "end": 812.74,
    "text": "That's a good way to put it."
  },
  {
    "start": 812.96,
    "end": 815.06,
    "text": "Before we go, here's a final thought for you to mull over."
  },
  {
    "start": 815.46,
    "end": 823.16,
    "text": "We talked about the economic calculus, the ten pound laser versus the one thousand pound drone, but consider the AI."
  },
  {
    "start": 823.74,
    "end": 829.4,
    "text": "If an AI can coordinate a swarm of five thousand drones simultaneously, does the cost even matter anymore?"
  },
  {
    "start": 829.94,
    "end": 836.22,
    "text": "Can a laser system, even a cheap one, track and engage five thousand targets at once before it's overwhelmed?"
  },
  {
    "start": 836.92,
    "end": 841.02,
    "text": "We might be solving the cost equation, but we haven't solved the saturation equation."
  },
  {
    "start": 841.3,
    "end": 843.82,
    "text": "And that's the question that keeps strategists awake at night."
  },
  {
    "start": 844.08,
    "end": 846.82,
    "text": "If you enjoyed this episode, new episodes drop every two weeks."
  },
  {
    "start": 847.22,
    "end": 855.9,
    "text": "Also check out our other editions on ICT and tech insights, health tech, cloud, digital products and services, artificial intelligence, and sustainability in green ICT."
  },
  {
    "start": 856.32,
    "end": 856.96,
    "text": "Thanks for listening."
  },
  {
    "start": 857.14,
    "end": 857.94,
    "text": "Stay sharp out there."
  },
  {
    "start": 858.22,
    "end": 861.36,
    "text": "And don't forget to subscribe for the next deep dive into the defense sector."
  },
  {
    "start": 861.72,
    "end": 862.24,
    "text": "Catch you next"
  },
  {
    "start": 862.28,
    "end": 862.84,
    "text": "time."
  }
]